USD/JPY Forecast Today: Price Tests Resistance Ahead of US Payrolls

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 6, 2026, 06:46 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY trades with high intraday volatility amidst conflicting technical signals. The pair sits closely below R1 resistance as markets await US Nonfarm Payrolls.

USD/JPY Reclaims 158 Ahead of London Open

During the Asia session, before London opens at 07:00 UTC, USD/JPY trades at 158.104, up 0.466 on the day. Price is positioned between the daily pivot at 157.878 and R1 at 158.239. The pair has charted a day low of 157.235 and a day high of 158.138. This intraday movement covers 90.3 pips, which accounts for 97% of the 14-day average true range of 93.3 pips.

Mixed Trends Present a Neutral Technical Bias

The directional evidence across multiple timeframes yields a neutral bias. The H4 timeframe shows an up trend, but the daily and H1 timeframes are both mixed, reflecting conflicting signals in the broader price structure. Momentum indicators remain near the midpoint, with the 14-day daily RSI at 48.3. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 27, indicates that large speculators added to their net short USD/JPY position. Contextually, US Treasury yields at the November 5 close saw the 2-year yield at 4.46%, down 12 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.84%, down 6 basis points.

Support and Resistance Zones

The nearest resistance level above price is R1 at 158.239, located 13.5 pips away. The nearest support below price is the daily pivot at 157.878, sitting 22.6 pips distant. Additional pivot levels overhead include R2 at 158.839 and R3 at 159.2. Further downside points are marked at S1 at 157.278, S2 at 156.917, and S3 at 156.317. The previous day high stands at 158.479 and the previous day low is 157.518. Looking at recent historical extremes, the 5-day window features a high of 158.746 and a low of 156.942. The broader 20-day window encompasses a high of 158.927 and a low of 156.056. Rounding out the technical landscape, round levels rest at 158 below current price and 158.5 above.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 158.239 would open the way to R2 at 158.839. A move back below the daily pivot at 157.878 would invalidate this upward view.

In a bearish scenario, a break below S1 at 157.278 would open the way to S2 at 156.917. This downward path would be invalidated if price climbs back above the daily pivot at 157.878.

US Payrolls and BoJ Speakers on Today's Calendar

Today's economic calendar features significant scheduled releases. Today at 09:30 UTC, the Fed's Williams delivers a speech. Following that, today at 13:30 UTC brings a dense block of US data, including Nonfarm Payrolls with an estimate of 65 against a previous 29, and Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month estimated at 0.3%. The Unemployment Rate releases at the same time, estimated at 4.2%. Today at 15:00 UTC, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled, with an estimate of 48. Turning to the yen, today at 16:00 UTC features a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, followed by the Fed's Bowman speaking today at 17:15 UTC. The current newsflow focuses on safe-haven demand and elevated volatility ahead of the payrolls print, as reported by publishers like Forexcom and FXEmpire. Measuring the tone of this coverage, the opportunity reading is neutral at 7, though news volume is high at 124% of the 90-day average.

Bottom Line

USD/JPY advances into the upcoming sessions with mixed trend signals and high intraday volatility already realized. With price confined between the daily pivot and R1, the technical structure requires a break of these immediate boundaries to establish the next directional leg. The upcoming US labor data and central bank speeches present the scheduled catalysts capable of driving that breakout.