Why is USD/JPY Moving Today Ahead of US Data?

Market mover Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 01:48 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY trades lower in the Asia session as markets await high-impact US economic data and the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes. Price has breached its typical daily range, declining 101.3 pips to sit between the S1 and S2 pivot levels.

Volatility and Intraday Price Action

USD/JPY has pushed well beyond its typical daily bounds in the Asia session, currently trading at 157.71. The pair has shed 0.96, or 0.61% on the day. Selling pressure forced the price down from a day high of 158.721 to a day low of 157.708. This sharp intraday decline of 101.3 pips represents 1.1 times the 14-day Average True Range, which sits at 89.9 pips. Examining the trend indicators reveals a divided technical picture. The daily trend points down, as the daily 200-period EMA rests at 157.958 with price currently trading below it. Additionally, the daily 20-period EMA is positioned at 157.812 and the 50-period EMA at 157.931. In contrast, both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes show mixed states. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period EMA is at 157.96 and the 50-period EMA is at 157.819. The 1-hour timeframe places the 20-period EMA at 158.294 and the 50-period EMA at 158.076. The 14-period daily RSI stands at 58.7. Due to this divergence across timeframes, price sits between the S2 support at 157.363 and the S1 level at 158.017.

News Drivers and Market Sentiment

In the newsflow, several themes run through the recent coverage. Headlines from FXEmpire and Forex.com highlight the upcoming midterm elections. Additionally, Forex.com points to rising US Treasury yields, while Action Forex notes expectations for a December rate hike in Japan. FXEmpire also mentions a drop in oil prices. US Treasury yields on November 3 provided context, with the 2-year yield at 4.61%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.95%, up 4 basis points. The yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year notes stood at 34 basis points. Positioning data from the CFTC for the week to October 27 shows large speculators were net short USD/JPY and added to that net short position. Media sentiment data shows an independent opportunity reading of neutral, alongside news volume running at 101% of the 90-day average.

Scheduled Economic Event Risk

Looking ahead on today's economic calendar, several events stand out. The high-impact US ADP Employment Change hits the wires today at 13:15 UTC, with an estimate of 69 against a previous print of 90. Also today, the medium-impact US S&P Global Composite PMI is scheduled at 14:45 UTC, with an estimate of 57.6, matching the previous reading. At 15:00 UTC today, the high-impact US ISM Services PMI is due, carrying an estimate of 54.8 compared to the previous 54.9. The 15:00 UTC block today includes several medium-impact ISM components: the New Orders Index previously at 59.8, the Prices Paid Index previously at 74, and the Employment Index previously at 50.1. Finally, closing out the schedule today, the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be published at 23:50 UTC.

Technical Levels and Range Extremes

On the charts, traders find the nearest resistance at the previous day low of 157.728, located just 1.8 pips above the current price. To the downside, the nearest support is the S2 level at 157.363, resting 34.7 pips away. Checking recent performance against USD/JPY analysis extremes, the 5-day window shows a high of 158.746 and a low of 156.942, with performance down 0.13% over that period. The broader 20-day timeframe records its high at 158.927 and its low at 156.056, tracking a decline of 0.22% across those twenty trading days. Yesterday's bar on November 3 charted a range of 101.8 pips between its open at 157.921, a high of 158.746, and a low of 157.728, before closing at 158.67.

Trading Scenarios

Should price extend its decline, clearing S2 at 157.363 opens the door to S3 at 156.999. This bearish setup is invalidated if the market returns above the daily pivot at 158.381. On the upside, a break above R1 at 159.035 would open the way to R2 at 159.399. A move back below the daily pivot at 158.381 would invalidate the bullish path.