USD/JPY Forecast Today: Spot Holds Below 158.38 Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 4, 2026, 07:18 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY trades at 158.142 during the London session, down 0.33% on the day. Spot sits between S1 support at 158.017 and the daily pivot at 158.381 ahead of high-impact US macro data.

USD/JPY Price Position and Volatility Overview

USD/JPY trades at 158.142 during the London session, down 0.528 points or 0.33% on the day after opening at 158.636. Spot price has established a day low of 157.374 and a day high of 158.721. Today's intraday trading span of 134.7 pips measures 150% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which stands at 0.899 or 89.9 pips. Traders evaluating volatility measurements can learn more in our guide on the ATR indicator.

Trend Structures Across Timeframes

Technical indicators reflect different structural conditions across timeframes. On the daily chart, the trend state is mixed: the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits at 157.812, the 50-day EMA rests at 157.931, and the 200-day EMA stands at 157.958, with price holding above the 200-day EMA. The daily 14-day relative strength index (RSI) registers at 58.7.

Shorter timeframes maintain upward trend alignments. On the 4-hour (H4) chart, the 20-period EMA is at 157.975 and the 50-period EMA is at 157.831, indicating an upward trend state. On the 1-hour (H1) chart, the 20-period EMA sits at 158.13 and the 50-period EMA is at 158.04, also reflecting an upward trend state. Because the mixed daily trend does not fully align with the H4 and H1 upward structures, intraday momentum shows mixed directional signals across timeframes.

Key Technical Support and Resistance Levels

Price currently trades between S1 support at 158.017 and the daily pivot at 158.381. The nearest technical resistance is the daily pivot at 158.381, located 23.9 pips above price. The nearest support level is S1 at 158.017, which lies 12.5 pips below current trading levels.

Pivot resistance levels above current price sit at R1 at 159.035, R2 at 159.399, and R3 at 160.053. Pivot support levels below price are located at S2 at 157.363 and S3 at 156.999. Additional pivot levels can be calculated using our pivot point calculator.

Yesterday's candle recorded an open of 157.921, a high of 158.746, and a low of 157.728 before settling at yesterday's close of 158.67. Across broader time windows, the 5-day range covers a high of 158.746 and a low of 156.942. The 20-day range spans a high of 158.927 and a low of 156.056. Key psychological round numbers are positioned at 158 below and 158.5 above.

Bullish and Bearish Trading Scenarios

A bullish setup relies on price pushing through overhead pivot resistance. A break above R1 at 159.035 would open the way to R2 at 159.399; a move back below the daily pivot at 158.381 would invalidate that view.

A bearish scenario depends on price breaking beneath nearby pivot support. A break below S1 at 158.017 would open the way to S2 at 157.363; a move back above the daily pivot at 158.381 would invalidate that path.

US Economic Data, Yield Context, and Market Sentiment

Several economic data releases are scheduled for today, Wednesday, November 4. At 13:15 UTC, US ADP Employment Change is scheduled with a previous reading of 90 and an estimate of 69. At 14:45 UTC, the US S&P Global Composite PMI arrives, matching both its previous figure and current estimate at 57.6. At 15:00 UTC, the US ISM Services PMI is due with an estimate of 54.8 against a previous 54.9, alongside sub-indexes for New Orders (previous 59.8), Prices Paid (previous 74), and Employment (previous 50.1). Later at 23:50 UTC, Japan releases the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Looking ahead to tomorrow, Thursday, November 5, US Challenger Job Cuts will be published at 10:30 UTC (previous 43.281).

In news coverage, FXEmpire reported on US dollar movements alongside midterm election dynamics and shifts in oil prices. Forexcom highlighted yen market developments and movements in US Treasury yields. Action Forex discussed yen price pressure in the context of Japanese rate hike expectations. Readers can follow broader market insights across our USD/JPY analysis section.

Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of October 27, 2026, shows that large speculators held 64.5% long and 35.5% short futures positions, representing a net total of 101,591 contracts up from 69,878 contracts in the prior week. In pair terms, this represents a net short USD/JPY stance, indicating speculators added to net short USD/JPY positioning.

In fixed income context, US Treasury yields closed on November 3, 2026, with the 2-year yield at 4.61% (up 2 basis points), the 10-year yield at 4.95% (up 4 basis points), the 3-month yield at 4.21%, and the 2s10s curve at 34 basis points. Meanwhile, news sentiment metrics report an opportunity score of -18, indicating a bearish media mood, with news volume at 101% of its 90-day average.

Bottom Line

USD/JPY trades at 158.142 during the London session, holding between S1 support at 158.017 and the daily pivot at 158.381. As New York joins at 12:00 UTC, upcoming US employment and services data present key volatility catalysts. Clearing S1 support at 158.017 opens a path toward S2 at 157.363, while a move above the daily pivot at 158.381 points toward R1 at 159.035.