Nasdaq 100 (US100) Outlook Today: Bias Stays Bearish Below Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 3, 2026, 12:20 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

US100 sits between S1 and the daily pivot with daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing down; today's JOLTS and Factory Orders data are the next scheduled catalysts.

Nasdaq 100 Pauses Below the Pivot as London and New York Overlap

Nasdaq 100 (US100) trades at 28031.6, down 41.2 points, or 0.15%, on the day, sitting between S1 at 27771.8 and the daily pivot at 28262.2. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot at 28262.2, some 230.6 points above, while the nearest support is the previous day low at 27961.2, just 70.4 points below. With the daily, H4 and H1 trend readings all pointing down, the near-term evidence leans bearish in the current London and New York overlap, which runs until London closes at 16:00 UTC.

The day's range stretches from a high of 28145.1 to a low of 27901.9, a 243.2-point spread that covers 41% of the 14-day Average True Range of 588.9 points, a volatility backdrop explained further in ForexR's guide to ATR and volatility. Against yesterday's close of 28072.8 (2026-11-02), when the index opened at 28505.6 and ranged between a high of 28752.6 and a low of 27961.2 for a 791.4-point swing, today's price action looks comparatively contained so far.

Trend and Momentum: Daily, H4 and H1 All Point the Same Way

The daily trend reads down, with price below both the 20-day EMA at 29456.5 and the 50-day EMA at 29645.5, and also below the 200-day EMA at 28039. The H4 trend is down as well, with the index under its 20-period EMA at 28502.5 and 50-period EMA at 28939, and the H1 trend matches, sitting below its 20-period EMA at 28137.5 and 50-period EMA at 28399.7. Daily RSI(14) reads 31.7, consistent with the broader slide rather than signaling a turn. All three timeframes agree, which is what keeps today's bias leaning bearish rather than neutral.

The index is down 4.3% over the past 5 days and 9.83% over the past 20, underscoring the size of the pullback sitting behind today's more modest daily change.

Key Levels: Pivots, Prior Range and the Wider Monthly Picture

Price currently sits between S1 at 27771.8 and the pivot at 28262.2, with resistance nearest at that pivot and support nearest at the previous day low of 27961.2. Levels above the pivot include R1 at 28563.2, R2 at 29053.6 and R3 at 29354.6; below S1 sit S2 at 27470.8 and S3 at 26980.4, a framework covered in more detail in ForexR's pivot points guide and the pivot point calculator.

The previous day's (2026-11-02) high and low were 28752.6 and 27961.2. Over the last 5 days, the range runs from a high of 30020.9 to a low of 27961.2, while the 20-day range spans a high of 31365 down to that same low of 27961.2. The psychological round number at 28000 sits just below current price, with the next round level at 29000 well above the pivot.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for US100

On the upside, a break above R1 at 28563.2 would open the way to R2 at 29053.6; a move back below the daily pivot at 28262.2 would invalidate that case. On the downside, a break below S1 at 27771.8 would open the way to S2 at 27470.8; a move back above the daily pivot at 28262.2 would invalidate that case instead. Readers weighing either path can size it with ForexR's risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move Nasdaq 100 Today

Two US releases land at 15:00 UTC today: Factory Orders (MoM), previous 0.1%, estimate 1.2%, and JOLTS Job Openings, previous 7.079, estimate 7.13. Tomorrow brings a heavier slate, including ADP Employment Change at 13:15 UTC (previous 90, estimate 69), the S&P Global Composite PMI at 14:45 UTC (previous and estimate both 57.6), and the ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (previous 54.9, estimate 54.8), alongside the ISM Services New Orders, Prices Paid and Employment sub-indexes. The full sequence can be tracked against ForexR's economic calendar guide.

Newsflow is dominated by AI-related caution, with MarketWatch describing the broader slide as part of a corrective phase this year and Invezz attributing the latest tech pullback to AI spending concerns. A separate Bloomberg Markets and Finance piece argues Wall Street figures still see the AI trade as far from bubble territory, while MarketWatch also notes that previously overlooked stocks are outperforming past market leaders.

As of the week to October 27, 2026, CFTC data show large speculators net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), with longs holding 70.3% of speculative futures positioning against 29.7% short. The weekly shift saw speculators reduce that net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) position compared with the prior week.

US Treasury yields closed 2026-11-02 with the 2-year at 4.59%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.91%, down 3 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 32 basis points; the 3-month bill stood at 4.21%. These levels are background for rate expectations, not a direct explanation for today's move in US100.

Independent news-sentiment tracking shows coverage volume running at 176% of its 90-day average, with the opportunity read at -68, a bearish score. This describes the tone of the day's coverage rather than a signal of where price goes next.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq 100 trades lower on the day with the daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing down and price wedged between the previous day low at 27961.2 and the daily pivot at 28262.2. A reclaim of the pivot would be needed to open the bullish path toward R1 at 28563.2 and R2 at 29053.6, while a break of S1 at 27771.8 would keep the bearish path toward S2 at 27470.8 in play. Today's Factory Orders and JOLTS releases at 15:00 UTC, followed by tomorrow's heavier US data slate, are the next scheduled inputs for direction.