Nasdaq 100 (US100) Forecast: Rebound, Trend Still Down

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 6, 2026, 12:46 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is up 2.02% on the day at 27029, but daily, four-hour and hourly trends all point down, with the daily pivot at 27162.1 only 133.1 points above.

Where Nasdaq 100 stands in the overlap

Nasdaq 100 (US100) last printed at 27029 at 12:33 UTC, in the London and New York overlap, up 534.4 points, or 2.02%, on the day. The trend evidence still leans down, and price sits between S1 at 25785.1 and the daily pivot at 27162.1. Nearest resistance is that daily pivot, 133.1 points above the last price; nearest support is the previous day low at 26452.6, 576.4 points below.

The day low is 26247.7 and the day high is 27137.4, a day range of 889.7 points. That span is 121% of the 14-period ATR at 735.1 points, so the day's range has already exceeded one ATR reading on the ATR and volatility guide. The day opened at 26543.6. The previous close behind today's change is 26494.6. The bid is 27029 and the ask is 27031.5, a spread of 2.5 points. London closes at 16:00 UTC.

Trend and momentum agree on down

The daily trend is down. Price is below the 200-day exponential moving average at 28025.2, and it is also below the 20-day average at 29000.3 and the 50-day average at 29429.4. Daily RSI is 25.4, sitting with that down state rather than against it.

The four-hour trend is down. Its 20-period average is at 27616.2 and its 50-period average is at 28254.8, both above the last price. The one-hour trend is down as well: the 20-period average is at 27063 and the 50-period average is at 27468. Daily, four-hour and one-hour states agree, so the bias stays bearish even with the gain on the day.

The five-day change is down 7.05%. The twenty-day change is down 12.14%. The rebound on the day has not flipped any of those three trend readings.

Levels around the last price

Nearest resistance remains the daily pivot at 27162.1, 133.1 points away. Nearest support remains the previous day low at 26452.6, 576.4 points away. The day high at 27137.4 is still under the daily pivot.

On the daily pivot set, R1 is 27871.5, R2 is 29248.5 and R3 is 29957.9. S1 is 25785.1, S2 is 25075.7 and S3 is 23698.7. The daily pivot, the same 27162.1 level, is the reference those bands are built from, and from this price it is resistance, not a trigger.

Yesterday's bar opened at 28535.5, reached a high at 28539 and a low at 26452.6, and yesterday's close was 26494.6. That bar's range was 2086.4 points.

The five-day high is 29023.5 and the five-day low is 26452.6. The twenty-day high is 31063.3 and the twenty-day low is 26452.6. Round levels are 27000 below the last price and 28000 above it.

Bullish path and bearish path

A break above R1 at 27871.5 would open the way to R2 at 29248.5. The span from that trigger to that target is 1377 points. A move back below the daily pivot at 27162.1 would invalidate the bullish path. At 27029 the index is still beneath the pivot, so that upside path is not in force.

The downside map is different. A break below S1 at 25785.1 would open the way to S2 at 25075.7, a span of 709.4 points from trigger to target. A move back above the daily pivot at 27162.1 would invalidate that bearish path. S1 sits well under the previous day low, which is the closer support while price holds at 27029.

Payrolls, sentiment and yields into the London close

On today's economic calendar, the 13:30 UTC labor cluster is still ahead in this overlap. Nonfarm Payrolls is high impact, previous 29, estimate 65. Average hourly earnings month on month is high impact, previous 0.1, estimate 0.3. Average hourly earnings year on year is high impact, previous 3, estimate 2.9. The unemployment rate is medium impact, previous 4.2, estimate 4.2. The labor force participation rate is medium impact, previous 61.8, with no estimate listed. The U6 underemployment rate is medium impact, previous 7.6, with no estimate listed. Those prints sit beside a pivot 133.1 points above and a previous day low 576.4 points below; the calendar does not rank which release, if any, reaches either level.

At 15:00 UTC today, before London closes at 16:00 UTC, the Michigan consumer sentiment index is high impact, previous 48, estimate 48. The expectations index is medium impact, previous 48.8, with no estimate listed. One-year consumer inflation expectations are medium impact, previous 4.7, with no estimate listed. Five-year consumer inflation expectations are medium impact, previous 3.5, with no estimate listed. Fed's Bowman speech is set for 17:15 UTC today, medium impact, with no previous reading and no estimate, after the London close.

News coverage is heavy: Reuters and the WSJ describe Nasdaq futures after AI-linked selling, Fox Business points to growing concern about AI, Market Watch and Yahoo Finance focus on a broad equity selloff, and Bloomberg Markets and Finance notes a slide in China tech stocks.

News volume is at 203% of its 90-day average. The opportunity read is bearish at a score of -44, a coverage measure only, not a positioning gauge and not a forecast of the next print.

As of the week to October 27, large speculators were net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), with 70.3% of speculative contracts long and 29.7% short, a net 48839 contracts. Speculators reduced that net long, down 1887 contracts from 50726 the prior week. That report is days old and describes positioning, not where price goes next.

US Treasury yields at the November 5 close, versus November 4, showed the 2-year at 4.46%, down 12 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.84%, down 6 basis points, with the 2s10s spread at 38 basis points. The 3-month yield was 4.17%. Those closes are rate context only, not a proven cause of the move in the index.

Bottom line

Through the rest of the London and New York overlap, Nasdaq 100 (US100) is up 2.02% on the day at 27029, with nearest resistance at the daily pivot at 27162.1 and nearest support at the previous day low at 26452.6. Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all read down, so the lean stays bearish while the last price is under that pivot. A break above R1 at 27871.5 would open R2 at 29248.5, and a break below S1 at 25785.1 would open S2 at 25075.7, with payrolls at 13:30 UTC and Michigan sentiment at 15:00 UTC still on today's calendar before London closes at 16:00 UTC.