Nasdaq 100 (US100) Forecast Today: Pinned Near the Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 12:21 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 is down 0.28% on the day and trading between the daily pivot and R1 after a volatile post-election range, with daily and H4 trend down but H1 momentum mixed ahead of ADP and ISM Services data.

Where the Nasdaq 100 Stands in the London-New York Overlap

Nasdaq 100 (US100) last trades at 28201.3 (bid 28201.3 / ask 28203.8), down 80.4 points, or 0.28%, on the day against the previous close of 28281.7. The day has swung from an open at 28314.4 to a high of 28533.3 and a low of 27493, a day range of 1040.3 points.

That range is already running at 181% of the 14-day Average True Range of 576.1 points, meaning today's swing has well outpaced the index's recent typical daily movement. The ATR and volatility guide explains how that comparison is read, and a move of this size against the usual range points to an outsized, two-way session rather than a one-directional trend day.

Trend and Momentum: Timeframes Don't Agree

The daily chart remains in a down state, with price at 28201.3 sitting below both the 20-day EMA at 29344.6 and the 50-day EMA at 29592, yet still above the 200-day EMA at 28038.4. The H4 trend is also down, with price below its 28347.5 and 28772.2 EMAs. The H1 picture is mixed, with price between its 28149.9 and 28236.1 EMAs rather than clearly above or below both.

Daily RSI14 reads 35, below the midpoint but not at an extreme. With the daily and H4 trend aligned lower while the H1 trend sits mixed and price still holds above the long-term daily EMA, the evidence does not point cleanly in one direction, which keeps today's bias neutral. The index is also down 4.83% over five days and down 9.76% over twenty days.

Levels That Matter

Price currently sits between the daily pivot at 28165.2 and R1 at 28428.6. The nearest resistance above is the previous day high at 28312.1, 110.8 points away, while the nearest support below is the daily pivot itself at 28165.2, just 36.1 points away. Readers unfamiliar with how these levels are built can review the pivot points guide or run the numbers through the pivot point calculator.

Beyond R1, the pivot structure extends to R2 at 28575.4 and R3 at 28838.8, while support below the pivot runs through S1 at 28018.4, S2 at 27755 and S3 at 27608.2. The previous day's range ran from a low of 27901.9 to a high of 28312.1, a 410.2-point bar. Over the past five days the range has stretched from a low of 27901.9 to a high of 30020.9, and over the past twenty days from the same 27901.9 low to a high of 31273.5. Round levels sit close by as well, with 28000 below current price and 29000 above it.

Bullish and Bearish Paths

On the upside, clearing R1 at 28428.6 would open the way toward R2 at 28575.4; a retreat back below the daily pivot at 28165.2 would undercut that case. On the downside, a slide through S1 at 28018.4 would open the way toward S2 at 27755, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 28165.2 would undercut that bearish path. Either scenario can be sized against account risk using the position size calculator or weighed with the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move It Today

• 13:15 UTC – ADP Employment Change: previous 90, estimate 69
• 14:45 UTC – S&P Global Composite PMI: previous 57.6, estimate 57.6
• 15:00 UTC – ISM Services PMI: previous 54.9, estimate 54.8, alongside the ISM Services New Orders Index (previous 59.8), Prices Paid (previous 74) and Employment Index (previous 50.1), none of which carry a published estimate

These sit inside today's economic calendar window during the London-New York overlap. Newsflow is dominated by the midterm election aftermath, with Skynews and Seeking Alpha describing a swing from early selling to a rebound as Democrats swept the vote, while separate Seeking Alpha and CNBC coverage points to renewed interest in tech stocks even as a further Seeking Alpha piece flags the S&P 500 slipping back below its mean trendline.

As of the week to October 27, large speculators held 70.3% of Nasdaq 100 futures positioning long against 29.7% short, a net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) position of 48839 contracts. The latest weekly report shows speculators reduced that net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) stance, down from 50726 contracts the prior week, a weekly change of -1887 contracts.

US Treasury yields at the November 3 close showed the 2-year yield at 4.61%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.95%, up 4 basis points, versus November 2, leaving the 2s10s curve at 34 basis points as background context rather than a direct driver of today's equity move.

News volume around the index is running at 144% of its 90-day average. The opportunity read, a separate gauge of market tone, has moved from -53 (bearish) to -1 (neutral) in the past 24 hours, reflecting a shift in media mood rather than a signal about where price goes next.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq 100 is holding between the daily pivot at 28165.2 and R1 at 28428.6 after a 1040.3-point day range that has run well above the 14-day ATR. With the daily and H4 trend down, H1 momentum mixed, and a slate of ADP and ISM Services releases still ahead in the overlap session, the setup leans neither cleanly bullish nor bearish until price clears one of the levels outlined above.