Nasdaq 100 (US100) Outlook: Holding Between Pivot and R1

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 2, 2026, 12:55 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 (US100) trades at 28581.4, up 0.7% on the day, holding between the daily pivot at 28498 and R1 resistance at 28907.9 while daily, H4 and H1 trends stay lower ahead of today's US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Where Nasdaq 100 (US100) Stands Now

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) is trading at 28581.4 during the London and New York overlap, up 199 points, or 0.7%, on the day versus the previous close of 28382.4. The day's open print was 28505.6, with the day high at 28692.8 and the day low at 28454.8. The bid stands at 28581.4 against an ask of 28583.9, a spread of 2.5 points.

The day's range stands at 238 points, equal to 42% of the 14-day Average True Range of 573.3 points, leaving today's move well short of average daily volatility. Price currently sits between the daily pivot at 28498 and R1 resistance at 28907.9.

Trend and Momentum

Trend states agree across timeframes: the daily, H4 and H1 readings are all down. On the daily chart, the 20-period EMA sits at 29602.1 and the 50-period EMA at 29709.7, both above current price, while the 200-period EMA is lower at 28042.7, with price trading above that long-term average.

The H4 20-period EMA is at 28867.8 and the 50-period EMA at 29176.5, both overhead. On H1, the 20-period EMA is 28620.9 and the 50-period EMA 28813.4, also above the current 28581.4 print. The daily 14-period RSI reads 34.1, below the midline and in line with the down state flagged on all three timeframes.

Levels That Matter

The nearest support is the daily pivot at 28498, 83.4 points below current price, with the nearest resistance at R1 28907.9, 326.5 points above price. The full grid, built with a pivot point calculator, adds R2 at 29433.3 and R3 at 29843.2 above, and S1 at 27972.6, S2 at 27562.7 and S3 at 27037.3 below.

The previous session, dated October 30, posted a high of 29023.5 and a low of 28088.2 before closing at 28382.4, a range of 935.3 points. Over the past 5 days, Nasdaq 100 (US100) has ranged between a high of 30020.9 and a low of 28088.2, a stretch that leaves the index down 1.43% across that window. The wider 20-day window shows a high of 31365 and a low of 28088.2, with the index down 7.17% over that period. The nearest round psychological levels sit at 29000 above and 28000 below.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A sustained push through R1 at 28907.9 would open the path toward R2 at 29433.3; a slip back below the daily pivot at 28498 would call that view into question. Anyone mapping that distance can weigh it against downside risk with a risk and reward calculator.

On the downside, a break under S1 at 27972.6 would clear the way toward S2 at 27562.7; a recovery back above the daily pivot at 28498 would undercut that case.

What Could Move It Today

The US economic calendar is busy today. At 15:00 UTC, ISM Manufacturing PMI is due, with the estimate at 54.6 against a previous reading of 54.5, alongside the Prices Paid sub-index (estimate 77, previous 77.9), the New Orders Index (previous 55.3) and the Employment Index (previous 52.7). Fed's Goolsbee is scheduled to speak at 16:15 UTC, and the Loan Officer Survey follows at 19:00 UTC. Tomorrow brings the US Midterm Elections at 05:00 UTC, then Factory Orders (estimate 1.2%, previous 0.1%) and JOLTS Job Openings (estimate 7.13, previous 7.079), both at 15:00 UTC.

Newsflow touches a few threads tied to the session: Seeking Alpha and Reuters both reference an AI angle, Reuters also flags this week's midterm elections, and Market Watch asks whether tech's rough October now sets up a buy-the-dip case.

The CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 27, 2026, shows large speculators net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) by 48839 contracts, down from 50726 contracts the week before, as speculators reduced that net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) position. US Treasury yields at the close of October 30, 2026 stood at 4.16% on the 3-month, 4.56% on the 2-year (down 5 basis points) and 4.94% on the 10-year (down 4 basis points), leaving the 2s10s curve at 38 basis points.

News volume sits at 31% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read registers at -49, a bearish reading on that specific gauge.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is up 0.7% on the day at 28581.4, trading between support at the daily pivot (28498) and resistance at R1 (28907.9) during the London and New York overlap. The daily, H4 and H1 trend states remain down, and the daily RSI at 34.1 sits below the midline, keeping today's bounce inside a broader lower trend. A break of R1 at 28907.9 opens the way to R2 at 29433.3, while a break of S1 at 27972.6 opens the way to S2 at 27562.7, with the daily pivot at 28498 the line that would undo either case ahead of today's ISM Manufacturing PMI.