EUR/USD Forecast Today: Neutral Setup Ahead of US ISM Manufacturing

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 2, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades with a neutral bias amid conflicting technical timeframes. Immediate directional cues hinge on resistance at 1.12035 and incoming US data.

EUR/USD Setup and Volatility Profile

As the Asia session advances toward the London open at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD sits at 1.1182, up 0.21% on the day. Price operates between the daily pivot at 1.11697 and R1 at 1.12035. Today's price action spans from a day low of 1.11428 to a day high of 1.11841. This intraday range covers 41.3 pips, utilizing 66% of the 14-day average true range of 62.3 pips.

Momentum Profiles Show Conflicting Bias

The technical picture offers mixed signals across timeframes. The daily trend remains down, with price holding below the 200-day exponential moving average. Momentum on the daily chart shows the 14-day RSI at 37.7. Looking closer, the four-hour trend registers as mixed, while the one-hour trend points up. Because these timeframes conflict, the current directional bias is neutral.

Support, Resistance, and Price Ranges

The nearest resistance waits above at R1 at 1.12035, located 21.5 pips away. The nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.11697, sitting 12.3 pips beneath the current level. Beyond these points, price faces round numbers at 1.12 above and 1.115 below. Yesterday charted a high of 1.12141 and a low of 1.11358. Expanding the view, the five-day window shows a high of 1.12259 and a low of 1.1104. The 20-day span pushes the high to 1.1276, sharing the same low of 1.1104.

Breakout Triggers and Risk Scenarios

A break above R1 at 1.12035 would open the way to R2 at 1.1248; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11697 would invalidate this bullish view.

Alternatively, a break below S1 at 1.11252 would open the way to S2 at 1.10914; a move back above the daily pivot at 1.11697 would invalidate this bearish setup.

Manufacturing PMIs and Market Context

Today's economic calendar delivers high-impact releases for both the euro and the dollar. At 07:00 UTC, the German year-over-year Retail Sales figure arrives, previously printing at -0.4%. At the exact same time, the month-over-month German Retail Sales release is scheduled, carrying an estimate of 0.4% against a previous 1.3%. Later, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI hits the wires at 15:00 UTC, holding an estimate of 54.6 compared to a previous 54.5. Other data points include European manufacturing PMIs from Spain, Italy, and Germany throughout the morning, alongside speeches from the ECB's Vujčić and Nagel. For the US, the schedule features the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index, and the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index. This is followed by a speech from the Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and the Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC.

In the broader newsflow, coverage discusses a potential consolidation phase and the ECB leadership transition, according to FX Street and Forexcom. Media mood measurements show an independent opportunity score of 54, reading as bullish.

Providing market context, futures data as of the week to October 27 shows large speculators were net short EUR/USD. Over that week, speculators added to net short EUR/USD. In the bond market on October 30, the US 2-year yield closed at 4.56%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield finished at 4.94%, down 4 basis points.

The Bottom Line

EUR/USD analysis reveals a market caught between conflicting technical trends. Price operates near the day high but faces immediate resistance just ahead. The incoming US ISM Manufacturing data and European releases will test the durability of these near-term boundaries.