EUR/USD Forecast Today: Holds Near 1.1206 Ahead of US CPI

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 14, 2026, 06:17 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades near 1.12059, up slightly on the day, consolidating between the daily pivot and R1 with US CPI and several ECB speeches due later in the session.

Where EUR/USD Stands Now

In early Asia trading, EUR/USD changes hands at 1.12059, up 0.08% on the day against the previous close of 1.11974. The pair opened today's session at 1.11968 and has moved between a low of 1.11906 and a high of 1.12106, a 20-pip span. Readers can track the live EUR/USD rate and chart as London prepares to open at 07:00 UTC.

That 20-pip range covers only 33% of the 14-day Average True Range of 61 pips, a quiet start to the session so far. For background on how that gauge is built, see this guide to ATR and volatility.

Trend and Momentum: Timeframes Disagree

The daily trend remains down, with price below its 200-day EMA at 1.15645 and below both the 20-day EMA at 1.13109 and the 50-day EMA at 1.14188. Daily RSI reads 30.3, a weak momentum reading. The pair is down 0.47% over the past five days and down 2.9% over the past twenty days.

Shorter-term readings don't line up with that daily decline. The four-hour trend is mixed, with price above its 20-period EMA at 1.1195 but below the 50-period EMA at 1.12217, while the one-hour trend has turned up, with the 20-period EMA at 1.11982 sitting above the 50-period EMA at 1.11923. With daily, H4 and H1 pointing in different directions, the broader read leans neutral rather than confirming one direction.

Levels That Matter Today

Price currently sits between the daily pivot at 1.1184 and resistance at R1, 1.12174. The nearest resistance is that R1 level, 11.5 pips above spot, while the nearest support is the previous day's high at 1.1204, now just 1.9 pips below price. Further out, the pivot grid lists R2 at 1.12375 and R3 at 1.12709 above, with S1 at 1.11639, S2 at 1.11305 and S3 at 1.11104 below. The pivot points guide explains how these levels are built.

Yesterday's session opened at 1.11521 and covered a 53.5-pip range. Looking wider, the 5-day range runs from a low of 1.11505 to a high of 1.12622, while the 20-day range stretches from that same low of 1.11505 up to a high of 1.15559, a reminder of how far price has pulled back from its recent extremes. The pair also trades just above the round number at 1.12000, with the next round level overhead at 1.12500.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A sustained break above R1 at 1.12174 would open the way toward R2 at 1.12375, a potential move of 20.1 pips; that bullish case would be invalidated by a drop back below the daily pivot at 1.1184.

On the other side, a slip under S1 at 1.11639 would point toward S2 at 1.11305 as the next downside level, a potential move of 33.4 pips; that bearish case fails if price climbs back above the daily pivot at 1.1184.

What Could Move EUR/USD Today

The calendar is busy through the session:

• 07:00 UTC – Spanish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY), previous 5%, estimate 5%
• 08:00 UTC – ECB's Elderson speaks
• 08:30 UTC – ECB President Lagarde speaks (High impact)
• 09:20 UTC – ECB's Escrivá speaks
• 09:40 UTC – Fed's Bowman speaks
• 12:30 UTC – US Consumer Price Index (YoY), previous 3.4%, estimate 3.6%; (MoM), previous 0.4%, estimate 0.6%; core (MoM), previous 0.3%, estimate 0.2%; core (YoY), previous 2.4%, estimate 2.5%
• 14:55 UTC – Fed's Bowman speaks again
• 16:15 UTC – ECB's Schnabel speaks
• 18:00 UTC – Fed's Beige Book, plus the Monthly Budget Statement, previous -166.8, estimate -29

Tomorrow brings the start of the IMF Meeting. Readers unfamiliar with how to weigh a packed calendar like today's can consult this guide to using an economic calendar.

Newsflow from outlets including FXEmpire, Forex.com and FX Street centers on whether the dollar's recent advance can extend once the CPI print lands, with differing views on where fair value sits for the pair into the release.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 6, 2026, shows large speculators net short EUR/USD, and speculators added to that net short EUR/USD position over the week. That reflects futures positioning, not a signal for where price goes next.

US Treasury yields at the close on October 13, 2026 showed the 2-year yield at 4.79%, down 1 basis point, and the 10-year yield at 5.21%, down 3 basis points. These sit as background to dollar trading rather than a cause of today's move.

News coverage volume on the pair runs at 193% of its 90-day average, with the opportunity read at a bullish 60. That measures the tone of coverage and a separate opportunity score, not trader positioning or a forecast.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD holds a narrow, sub-ATR range between the daily pivot at 1.1184 and R1 at 1.12174, with the daily downtrend intact but H4 and H1 readings pulling the other way, leaving the near-term picture neutral. A break of R1 opens the door to R2 at 1.12375, while a break of S1 at 1.11639 opens the door to S2 at 1.11305, with the daily pivot deciding which case stays valid. The run of ECB speakers and the 12:30 UTC US CPI release are the scheduled events most likely to test whichever side of the pivot price is sitting on; those weighing the setup can size any approach with the position size calculator.