What is the current EUR/USD forecast today?

EUR/USD trades at 1.11785, up 0.22% on the day, sitting between the daily pivot at 1.1174 and R1 at 1.11963. The daily and H4 trend are down while daily RSI(14) reads 22.1, a low level.

What key levels should I watch for EUR/USD?

The nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.1174 and the nearest resistance is R1 at 1.11963. Beyond those, S1 sits at 1.11315 and R2 at 1.12388, with round numbers at 1.115 and 1.12.

What is scheduled from the ECB and Fed today?

Today's calendar includes ECB's Elderson at 07:15 UTC, Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, ECB's Escrivá at 08:05 UTC and ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak tomorrow, not today.

Why has the US Dollar been strong against the Euro?

Recent coverage from outlets such as FX Street has pointed to hawkish Fed rhetoric as a factor behind dollar strength, as reported in the newsflow. US Treasury yields as of October 9 also showed the 2-year yield up 5 basis points and the 10-year up 2 basis points versus the prior session.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Steadies Near Pivot as Dollar Stays Firm

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 13, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is consolidating between the daily pivot at 1.1174 and R1 at 1.11963 in the Asia session, with the daily and H4 trend still down even as the pair trades modestly higher on the day.

Cropped image of businessman sitting by the table in cafe and analyzing indicators on laptop computer while us

Price1.11785

Day change+0.22%

Day range1.11505 - 1.11797

ATR (14)0.00616

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.12611	S1	1.11315
R2	1.12388	S2	1.11092
R1	1.11963	S3	1.10667
Previous day high	1.12164	Previous day low	1.11516
20-day high	1.15559	20-day low	1.11516
Daily pivot 1.11740. Data as of 2026-10-13 06:01 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.11740, R1 1.11963, R2 1.12388, S1 1.11315, S2 1.11092 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-13 06:01 UTC.

Where EUR/USD Stands in the Asia Session

EUR/USD last trades at 1.11785, up 0.22% from the previous close at 1.11539. The day's range runs from a low of 1.11505 to a high of 1.11797, putting the pair just below today's high after opening at 1.11521.

That intraday range measures 29.2 pips, only about 47% of the 14-day ATR of 61.6 pips, so the session has moved less than its recent average so far. Price sits between the daily pivot at 1.1174 and R1 at 1.11963, with the pivot acting as the nearest support 4.5 pips below and R1 the nearest resistance 17.8 pips above.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The daily trend remains down, with price below all three major EMAs: the 20-day at 1.13229, the 50-day at 1.14278 and the 200-day at 1.15676. The 4-hour trend is also marked down, with the 20-period EMA at 1.11903 above the 50-period EMA at 1.12276, keeping price capped from above on that timeframe.

The 1-hour picture is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 1.1172 sitting just below the 50-period EMA at 1.11831. Daily RSI(14) reads 22.1, a low level. Daily and H4 trend agree on the downside even as H1 shows no clear direction, and the pair is down 0.38% over the past five days and 3.2% over the past twenty.

Key Levels to Watch

Using the daily pivot framework, resistance levels stand at R1 1.11963, R2 1.12388 and R3 1.12611, while support levels sit at S1 1.11315, S2 1.11092 and S3 1.10667, with the pivot itself at 1.1174. Yesterday's session (October 12) opened at 1.11857, ran from a high of 1.12164 to a low of 1.11516, and closed at 1.11539, a range of 64.8 pips.

The five-day range runs from a low of 1.11516 to a high of 1.1276, while the twenty-day range spans a low of 1.11516 to a high of 1.15559 — two very different windows worth tracking separately via the pivot points guide. The nearest round numbers are 1.115 below current price and 1.12 above it.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R1 at 1.11963 would open the path toward R2 at 1.12388; that view would be invalidated by a slide back below the daily pivot at 1.1174. On the downside, a break of S1 at 1.11315 would expose S2 at 1.11092, with a recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.1174 negating that case.

What Could Move EUR/USD Today

The calendar is busy with central-bank speakers. ECB's Elderson speaks at 07:15 UTC, followed by Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 08:05 UTC, all today. Later sessions bring the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC (previous 23.75), Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) at 14:00 UTC (previous -2), the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC (previous -166.8, estimate -28) and ECB's Lane speech at 18:30 UTC. ECB President Lagarde is not scheduled to speak until tomorrow.

Newsflow from outlets including FX Street and Forex.com continues to center on broad dollar strength tied to expectations around Fed policy, alongside coverage describing the euro near multi-month lows.

CFTC data as of the week to October 6 shows large speculators net short EUR/USD, with the latest weekly report showing speculators added to that net short EUR/USD position. US Treasury yields as of October 9 showed the 2-year yield at 4.80%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, versus October 8.

News sentiment data shows the opportunity read on EUR/USD at -36, a bearish reading, with news volume running at 134% of its 90-day average; that same opportunity score had moved from -12 to -47 over the prior 24 hours. This reflects coverage tone and an independent opportunity score, not a forecast.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is holding a narrow range between the daily pivot at 1.1174 and R1 at 1.11963 heading into the London open, with daily and H4 trend still down despite the pair's modest gain on the day. A string of ECB and Fed speeches today, plus US data later in the session, sit close to levels that can define whether the pair tests R1 or slips back toward S1; the risk and reward calculator and economic calendar guide can help frame either scenario.