What is the expected impact of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on EUR/USD?

No outcome can be read in advance from the data itself; the estimate for tomorrow's German HICP is 3.3% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, both unchanged from the previous readings. Across the last 12 releases of this report, EUR/USD's typical move was 3.1 pips an hour later and 17.3 pips four hours later, which is historical behavior, not a forecast for this release.

Will the HICP data move the Euro higher or lower?

That isn't something the available data can predict. Of the last 12 releases, the one that came in above estimate was followed by EUR/USD closing higher an hour later, while the four that came in below estimate were followed by two higher and two lower closes an hour later.

How are traders positioned ahead of the release?

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 6, 2026, shows large speculators net short EUR/USD by 99,332 contracts in Euro FX futures, having added to that net short position over the week. This reflects broader futures positioning, not a bet tied specifically to tomorrow's HICP data.

What other economic events are scheduled alongside the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices?

Tomorrow's calendar also includes an IMF Meeting at 00:00 UTC, ECB speeches from Elderson at 07:15 UTC, Escrivá at 08:05 UTC and Lane at 18:30 UTC, a Fed's Waller speech at 07:45 UTC, the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC, Existing Home Sales Change at 14:00 UTC and the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC.

German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: EUR/USD Levels to Watch

Event preview Bearish bias Oct 12, 2026, 20:05 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD sits between S3 at 1.11228 and S2 at 1.11548 heading into tomorrow's German HICP data, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all pointing lower.

Orange hardhat beside a closed laptop and notebook

Price1.11529

Day change-0.43%

Day range1.11526 - 1.12164

ATR (14)0.00614

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.12887	S1	1.11781
R2	1.12654	S2	1.11548
R1	1.12334	S3	1.11228
Previous day high	1.12421	Previous day low	1.11868
20-day high	1.15982	20-day low	1.11603
Daily pivot 1.12101. Data as of 2026-10-12 20:02 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.12101, R1 1.12334, R2 1.12654, S1 1.11781, S2 1.11548 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-12 20:02 UTC.

EUR/USD is changing hands at 1.11529 during the New York session, down 0.43% from the previous close of 1.12014, and sits between S3 at 1.11228 and S2 at 1.11548. The nearest resistance is S2, just 1.9 pips away, while the nearest support is S3, 30.1 pips lower. New York trading runs until 21:00 UTC, after which the next major data point is Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), due tomorrow at 06:00 UTC.

Tomorrow's German Inflation Data

The headline HICP year-on-year reading is due at 06:00 UTC tomorrow, with the estimate at 3.3%, matching the previous reading. The month-on-month figure is due at the same time, with an estimate of 0.6%, also unchanged from the prior release. More on the pair's setup and historical pivots can be found in ForexR's EUR/USD analysis hub.

EUR/USD Positioning Ahead Of The Data

Today's session opened at 1.11857, reached a high of 1.12164 and a low of 1.11526. That 63.8-pip range is already 104% of the 14-day ATR of 61.4 pips. Over the past five days EUR/USD is down 0.89%, with a five-day high of 1.1276 and low of 1.11603; over the past twenty days it is down 3.84%, with a high of 1.15982 and a low of 1.11603.

The daily chart has price below its 20-, 50- and 200-day EMAs, at 1.13407, 1.1439 and 1.15709 respectively, with the 14-day RSI at 25.1. The four-hour trend is also lower, with EMAs at 1.11927 and 1.12316, as is the one-hour trend, with EMAs at 1.1175 and 1.11901. All three timeframes point the same way for now.

What Past HICP Releases Have Done To EUR/USD

Across the last 12 releases of this report, the typical move in EUR/USD an hour after the data was 3.1 pips, widening to a typical 17.3 pips four hours out. The largest one-hour move was 15.5 pips, recorded on 2026-06-12. Of those 12 releases, one came in above estimate and EUR/USD closed higher an hour later; four came in below estimate, after which EUR/USD closed higher twice and lower twice an hour later; the remaining seven were in line with estimates. A move of the typical one-hour size from here would reach up to 1.1156, a level that sits inside S2 at 1.11548, or down to 1.11498, a level with no marked support inside it. This is a record of past behavior only, not a forecast for tomorrow's release.

Scenario Map: Levels To Watch

On the upside, clearing R1 at 1.12334 would open the way toward R2 at 1.12654; slipping back under the daily pivot at 1.12101 would call that path into question. On the downside, a break under S3 at 1.11228 would open the way toward the next round number at 1.11; a recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.12101 would invalidate that reading. Either path can be mapped out in advance using ForexR's guide to pivot points.

Positioning, Yields And The Wider Calendar

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data, as of the week to October 6, 2026, shows large speculators net short EUR/USD by 99,332 contracts in Euro FX futures, after adding roughly 36,076 contracts to that net short position over the week. Separately, US Treasury yields closed on October 9 with the 2-year at 4.80%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, versus the prior session. Neither series is tied to tomorrow's release; both are context only.

Coverage from Forex.com and FXEmpire framed the recent slide as part of a broader dollar advance, with FXEmpire also linking dollar strength to a rally in oil prices. FX Street's commentary pointed to concerns over French government debt as an additional weight on the euro. News volume around EUR/USD is running at 17% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity score from that same coverage sits at -61, a bearish reading; this measures news tone, not trader positioning or a forecast.

Beyond the inflation figures, tomorrow's economic calendar includes an IMF Meeting at 00:00 UTC, an ECB's Elderson speech at 07:15 UTC, a Fed's Waller speech at 07:45 UTC, an ECB's Escrivá speech at 08:05 UTC, the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC, Existing Home Sales Change at 14:00 UTC, the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and an ECB's Lane speech at 18:30 UTC. The IMF Meeting continues on Wednesday at 00:00 UTC.

Bottom Line

German HICP data lands tomorrow at 06:00 UTC with both the year-on-year and month-on-month estimates unchanged from their previous readings, at 3.3% and 0.6%. EUR/USD heads into the release trading between S3 at 1.11228 and S2 at 1.11548, with R1 at 1.12334 and the daily pivot at 1.12101 the nearest levels above.