EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro Holds Near R1 Resistance
Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst
EUR/USD sits just below R1 at 1.12331, with daily, H4 and H1 trends split and the bias neutral ahead of today's high-impact Michigan sentiment data and ECB speakers.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 1.12880 | S1 | 1.11782 |
| R2 | 1.12570 | S2 | 1.11472 |
| R1 | 1.12331 | S3 | 1.11233 |
| Previous day high | 1.12261 | Previous day low | 1.11712 |
| 20-day high | 1.16168 | 20-day low | 1.11603 |
| Daily pivot 1.12021. Data as of 2026-10-09 06:02 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
Where EUR/USD Stands Right Now
In Asia trading, EUR/USD last changes hands at 1.12318, up 0.14% on the day after a move of 0.0016. The pair opened at 1.12171, with a day high of 1.12461 and a day low of 1.12133, sitting between the daily pivot at 1.12021 and R1 at 1.12331, just 1.3 pips below that resistance. The previous close on the live feed stood at 1.12158, while yesterday's candle finished at 1.12091.
Today's range so far covers 32.8 pips, only about 53% of the 14-day Average True Range of 61.8 pips, pointing to a quieter session than the recent average. London opens next at 07:00 UTC, and the live EUR/USD rate and chart will show whether that volatility picks up once European desks are active.
Trend And Momentum: Timeframes Disagree
The daily trend stays down, with price below the 20-day EMA at 1.13553, the 50-day EMA at 1.14487 and the 200-day EMA at 1.15739, and the daily RSI(14) reading 25.6. The four-hour trend is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 1.12167 sitting below the 50-period EMA at 1.12578. The one-hour trend has turned up, with the 20-period EMA at 1.12151 above the 50-period EMA at 1.12114.
With the daily trend down, the four-hour picture mixed and the one-hour trend up, the signals across timeframes disagree, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than clearly directional.
Levels That Matter For EUR/USD
The nearest resistance is R1 at 1.12331, only 1.3 pips above the last price, while the nearest support is the previous day high at 1.12261, 5.7 pips below. The daily pivot sits at 1.12021, with R2 at 1.1257 and R3 at 1.1288 above, and S1 at 1.11782, S2 at 1.11472 and S3 at 1.11233 below. The pivot point guide explains how these levels are derived, and the pivot point calculator can recompute them for other sessions.
Yesterday's session ran between a high of 1.12261 and a low of 1.11712. The five-day range spans from a low of 1.11603 to a high of 1.12848, and the 20-day range runs from the same low of 1.11603 to a high of 1.16168. The round number at 1.12 sits just below the last price, with the next round level at 1.125 above.
Bullish And Bearish Scenarios
A break above R1 at 1.12331 would open the way toward R2 at 1.1257, a move of 23.9 pips from trigger to target; a slide back under the daily pivot at 1.12021 would invalidate that path.
On the other side, losing S1 at 1.11782 would clear the way down to S2 at 1.11472, a 31-pip move from trigger to target, while reclaiming the daily pivot at 1.12021 would turn that bearish case aside.
What Could Move EUR/USD Today
The EcoFin meeting is on the calendar for 08:00 UTC, followed by ECB's Cipollone speaking at 10:15 UTC and ECB's Schnabel at 13:30 UTC. At 14:00 UTC, the US releases a cluster of Michigan survey data: the Consumer Expectations Index (previous 46.3), the 5-year inflation expectation (previous 3.4%), the 1-year inflation expectation (previous 4.6%) and the headline Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a high-impact release with an estimate of 47.6 against a previous reading of 48.1.
Newsflow this morning centers on French debt risk weighing on the euro, as reported by FX Street and Forex.com, alongside a softer dollar tone also noted in that coverage, while other reports pointed to broader dollar strength elsewhere in the FX complex.
As of the week to September 29, CFTC data show speculators net short EUR/USD, with that net short position added to from the prior week. US Treasury yields for October 8 show the 2-year note at 4.75%, down 2 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.22%, down 6 basis points, offered here as context rather than a cause of any move. Separately, the tone of news coverage on EUR/USD measures 53% bullish against 47% bearish, with media mood at 100 out of 100 and the opportunity reading at 37, also bullish.
Bottom Line
EUR/USD holds just under R1 at 1.12331 in Asia trade, with a down daily trend, a mixed four-hour picture and an up-tilted one-hour trend keeping the near-term bias neutral. A clearance of R1 opens the door to R2 at 1.1257, while a slip back under the daily pivot at 1.12021 would favor a test of S1 at 1.11782 and, beyond that, S2 at 1.11472. With a high-impact US sentiment release and three EUR-side calendar events due today, the risk and reward calculator can help frame either scenario before it plays out.
FAQ
What is the impact of French debt concerns on EUR/USD?
Recent coverage from FX Street and Forex.com has flagged French debt risk as a theme weighing on the euro, alongside a softer dollar tone. EUR/USD itself last trades at 1.12318, up 0.14% on the day, sitting between the daily pivot at 1.12021 and R1 resistance at 1.12331.
How does the softer US dollar factor into the EUR/USD outlook today?
FX Street's coverage describes the pair holding its gains near current levels on a softer dollar tone. On the data, EUR/USD is up 0.14% on the day at 1.12318, with the nearest resistance at R1 1.12331 and the nearest support at the previous day high of 1.12261.
Will the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index move EUR/USD today?
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 14:00 UTC as a high-impact release, with an estimate of 47.6 against a previous reading of 48.1. It lands alongside the Michigan Consumer Expectations Index and two UoM inflation-expectation readings at the same hour, though there is no basis here for predicting the outcome or its market reaction.
What technical levels are important for the EUR/USD outlook?
The nearest resistance is R1 at 1.12331, just 1.3 pips above the last price, with R2 at 1.1257 and R3 at 1.1288 further above. The nearest support is the previous day high at 1.12261, 5.7 pips below, with the daily pivot at 1.12021 and S1 at 1.11782 further down.
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