EUR/USD Forecast Today: Downtrend Holds Below Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 12, 2026, 06:04 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD holds below the daily pivot at 1.12083 with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all pointing down; a break of R1 at 1.12299 or S1 at 1.11746 would set the next directional test.

Where EUR/USD Stands Now

EUR/USD trades at 1.1202 during the Asia session, up 0.01% from the previous close at 1.12014, sitting between S1 at 1.11746 and the daily pivot at 1.12083. The nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.12083, just 6.3 pips above current trade, while the nearest support is the previous day low at 1.11868, 15.2 pips below it. London opens at 07:00 UTC, so the figures above come from thinner Asia-session liquidity. Today's range so far runs from a low of 1.11831 to a high of 1.12164, a span of 33.3 pips that covers about 54% of the 14-day ATR of 62.1 pips, so the day's move has used only about half its typical daily band. Live pricing and the full pivot grid for the pair are available on the EUR/USD rate page.

Trend And Momentum Across Timeframes

The broader trend points lower on every timeframe tracked. The daily chart sits below its 20-day EMA at 1.13401, its 50-day EMA at 1.14393 and its 200-day EMA at 1.15712, with price below the 200-day EMA and daily RSI at 28.7, deep in oversold territory. The four-hour chart is also down, trading beneath its 20-period EMA at 1.12093 and 50-period EMA at 1.12461, and the one-hour chart agrees, sitting under its 20-period EMA at 1.12043 and 50-period EMA at 1.12062. With daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all aligned lower, the technical read leans bearish even as the pair holds a marginal gain on the day; the euro is also down 0.47% over five days and 3.41% over twenty days.

Levels That Matter Today

Beyond the pivot and S1, the previous day high sits at 1.12421 and the previous day low at 1.11868, both from a prior session that spanned 55.3 pips. Looking further out, the five-day window has made a high of 1.1276 and a low of 1.11603, while the twenty-day window stretches from a high of 1.15982 down to a low of 1.11603. On the pivot grid, R1 sits at 1.12299, R2 at 1.12636 and R3 at 1.12852 above price, while S2 sits at 1.1153 and S3 at 1.11193 below it; the full set can be checked on our pivot point calculator. The round number at 1.12 sits just under the current trade, with 1.125 further above.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios

A rally through R1 at 1.12299 would open the way toward R2 at 1.12636; that reading would hold only as long as price doesn't slip back under the daily pivot at 1.12083, which would invalidate it.

Conversely, a slide beneath S1 at 1.11746 would point toward S2 at 1.1153; that case fails if price climbs back above the daily pivot at 1.12083.

What Could Move EUR/USD Today

The calendar is light on hard data today: ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić speaks at 10:00 UTC and Fed's Beth Hammack at 16:50 UTC, neither carrying a previous or estimate figure. The bigger test lands tomorrow, when Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is due at 06:00 UTC, with the year-on-year reading carrying a previous and estimate of 3.3% and the month-on-month reading carrying a previous and estimate of 0.6%, alongside a run of ECB and Fed speakers through the following morning; our economic calendar guide explains how to read releases like this one. News coverage is split between reports of relief tied to a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, as covered by FX Street, and a separate FX Street piece pointing to resistance that keeps capping the recovery attempt, while commentary from ExchangeRates and Forex.com centers on medium-term forecasts and the pair's stall near recent lows.

As of the week to October 6, CFTC data show speculators net short EUR/USD, and they added to that net short position during the week. US Treasury yields closed on October 9 with the 2-year at 4.80%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points — context for the dollar backdrop rather than a trigger for today's move.

News sentiment around the pair reads bearish, with an opportunity score of -35, though an alert shows that reading moved from -52 to -12 within 24 hours; overall news volume is running at just 17% of its 90-day average.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is holding a narrow, low-volatility range just under the daily pivot at 1.12083, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all still pointing down. A push through R1 at 1.12299 would shift the near-term picture toward R2 at 1.12636, while a break of S1 at 1.11746 would put S2 at 1.1153 in view; until one of those triggers, the pair sits in consolidation between the previous day low at 1.11868 and the daily pivot.