EUR/USD Holds Below Daily Pivot Ahead of ECB Accounts, Fed Speeches

Market news Bearish bias Oct 8, 2026, 00:49 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD sits just below the daily pivot at 1.12071, with EMA trend readings pointing lower on the daily, four-hour and one-hour charts as the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a run of central bank speeches come due later today.

EUR/USD Price Action in the Asian Session

EUR/USD is trading at 1.11982 during Thursday's Asian session, up 0.03% on the day and little changed from the previous close at 1.11952. Today's range has stayed narrow, with the day high at 1.12027 and the day low at 1.11895 — a span of 13.2 pips, just 21% of the 14-day Average True Range of 62.4 pips. Price sits between the S1 support at 1.11521 and the daily pivot at 1.12071, with that pivot the nearest resistance 8.9 pips above and the previous day low at 1.1164 the nearest support, 34.2 pips below. The London session opens at 07:00 UTC, and the pair heads into that handover still capped under the pivot.

Yesterday's Range and the Broader Downtrend

Wednesday's session (October 7) opened at 1.1257 and closed at 1.11952, swinging between a high of 1.12622 and a low of 1.1164 for a range of 98.2 pips — far wider than today's move so far. Over the past five days EUR/USD is down 1.15%, with the 5-day window bounded by a high of 1.13361 and a low of 1.11603. Over the past 20 days the pair is down 3.73%, with a 20-day high of 1.16412 and a 20-day low of 1.11603, matching the 5-day low exactly.

Technical Picture Across Time Frames

Trend readings line up across time frames. On the daily chart, price sits below the 20-day EMA at 1.13707, the 50-day EMA at 1.14585 and the 200-day EMA at 1.15768, with the daily trend classified as down and the 14-day RSI at 22.9. The four-hour chart shows the same alignment, with price under its 20-period EMA at 1.12234 and 50-period EMA at 1.12737 in a downtrend, and the one-hour chart mirrors it, with EMAs at 1.12022 and 1.12159, both pointing lower. For background on how these bands are used, see the ATR and volatility guide.

Fed Minutes Headline and Today's Heavy Calendar

Overnight newsflow centered on the Federal Reserve: Bloomberg Markets and Finance reported that the September Fed minutes showed hawkish unity behind that month's rate hike. This is a topic currently being reported, not a demonstrated driver of today's price action. The calendar ahead is dense. Germany's Trade Balance lands at 06:00 UTC, with the estimate at 19 against a previous reading of 21.3, followed by the Eurogroup Meeting at 08:00 UTC. Fed's Waller speaks at 08:30 UTC, the ECB's Lane at 10:00 UTC, and the high-impact ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts follow at 11:30 UTC. US Initial Jobless Claims print at 12:30 UTC, with the estimate at 200 against a previous reading of 197, and Fed's Musalem closes out the day's speeches at 17:40 UTC. The economic calendar guide breaks down how to read releases like these.

Positioning, Yields and News Sentiment

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to September 29, shows large speculators net short EUR/USD, and that they added to that net short position over the week. US Treasury yields at Wednesday's close (October 7) stood at 4.77% on the 2-year, down 2 basis points, and 5.28% on the 10-year, up 1 basis point, leaving the 2s10s curve at 51 basis points. News sentiment on EUR/USD leans bearish, with the bearish share of coverage at 53% against a bullish share of 47%; media mood reads 100 out of 100, unchanged from the prior day, on news volume running at 129% of the 90-day average, while the separate opportunity read stands at -18, a bearish score.

Scenarios: Levels to Watch

A break above R1 at 1.12503 would open the way toward R2 at 1.13053; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12071 would invalidate that path. On the downside, a slide beneath S1 at 1.11521 would open the way to S2 at 1.11089, with the same daily pivot at 1.12071 marking the level that would invalidate that bearish case. The pivot point calculator and the live EUR/USD rate and chart map this same ladder in real time.

Bottom Line

With EMA trend readings aligned lower on the daily, four-hour and one-hour charts and price holding under the daily pivot at 1.12071, the technical bias leans bearish heading into today's session. The range has stayed tight at 13.2 pips so far, and the pivot continues to cap the last traded price just 8.9 pips above it. The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC and the string of central bank speeches scheduled through the day are the next tests on the calendar, with no telling yet which side of the range they might favor.