EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro Holds Below Pivot as Downtrend Persists

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 8, 2026, 06:04 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD sits between the previous day low at 1.1164 and the daily pivot at 1.12071, with daily, H4 and H1 trend all pointing down ahead of today's ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and US jobless claims.

EUR/USD Now: Consolidating Below The Daily Pivot

In the Asia session, EUR/USD trades at 1.11916, down 0.00036, or 0.03%, from the previous close of 1.11952. The pair opened the day at 1.1194 and has held between a day high of 1.12122 and a day low of 1.11895, a spread of 22.7 pips that covers only 36% of the 14-day Average True Range of 62.4 pips.

That narrow range leaves EUR/USD sitting between the previous day low at 1.1164 and the daily pivot at 1.12071, with live EUR/USD pricing showing the pair yet to test either boundary with conviction. London trading opens at 07:00 UTC and could bring the volatility this session has lacked so far.

Trend And Momentum: Daily, H4 And H1 All Point Down

All three timeframes tracked here line up bearish. On the daily chart, price sits below its 20-day EMA at 1.13707, its 50-day EMA at 1.14585 and its 200-day EMA at 1.15768, with the trend state reading down and the 14-day RSI at a low 22.9. The four-hour chart shows the same shape, with price under its 20-period EMA at 1.12209 and 50-period EMA at 1.12708, also in a down state, and the one-hour chart agrees, trading below its 20-period EMA at 1.12009 and 50-period EMA at 1.12125.

That alignment matches the broader performance picture: EUR/USD is down 1.21% over the past five days and down 3.79% over the past twenty days. With daily, H4 and H1 all reading down, there is no conflict between timeframes today.

Key Levels: Pivots, Prior Range And Round Numbers

The nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.12071, just 15.5 pips above the last traded price, while the nearest support is the previous day low at 1.1164, 27.6 pips below it. For the full pivot grid, the pivot point calculator lays out every level, and the guide to pivot points explains how they are built. Above the pivot, resistance runs through R1 at 1.12503, R2 at 1.13053 and R3 at 1.13485; below it, support runs through S1 at 1.11521, S2 at 1.11089 and S3 at 1.10539.

Yesterday's session (2026-10-07) opened at 1.1257 and closed at 1.11952, with a high of 1.12622 and a low of 1.1164 for a range of 98.2 pips. The five-day range runs from a low of 1.11603 up to a high of 1.13361, while the twenty-day range stretches from that same 1.11603 low up to a much higher 1.16412. The nearest round numbers sit close by too, with 1.115 below current price and 1.12 above it.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios For EUR/USD

A break above R1 at 1.12503 would open the way toward R2 at 1.13053; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12071 would invalidate that view.

On the other side, clearing S1 at 1.11521 would expose S2 at 1.11089, with that bearish path turned off by a recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.12071. A risk and reward calculator can help frame the trigger, target and invalidation levels in either direction before any move unfolds.

What Could Move EUR/USD Today

The Eurozone side of the calendar is busy: a Eurogroup Meeting at 08:00 UTC, an ECB's Lane speech at 10:00 UTC, and the high-impact ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC. On the US side, Fed's Waller speaks at 08:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims are due at 12:30 UTC against a previous reading of 197 and an estimate of 200, and Fed's Musalem speaks at 17:40 UTC. Tomorrow brings an EcoFin Meeting at 08:00 UTC and an ECB's Cipollone speech at 10:15 UTC; the economic calendar guide covers how to read releases like these.

Newsflow over the past day has centered on a firmer US Dollar amid a broader global bond sell-off, alongside recurring references from FX Street and other outlets to French fiscal risk weighing on the Euro.

As of the week to September 29, 2026, CFTC data show large speculators net short EUR/USD, with 44.1% of futures positions long against 55.9% short; the latest weekly shift added further to that net short EUR/USD exposure. This is a snapshot of positioning, not a signal for where price goes next.

US Treasury yields closed on October 7, 2026 with the 2-year at 4.77%, down 2 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.28%, up 1 basis point, leaving the 2s10s curve at 51 basis points. These are offered as context for Dollar demand, not as the cause of today's EUR/USD move.

News sentiment on EUR/USD skewed 56% bullish versus 44% bearish, with media mood at its maximum reading of 100 out of 100. The separate opportunity read from the same data, however, sits at -28, a bearish score that moved from a bullish 39 in the prior 24 hours.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is trading at 1.11916, boxed between the previous day low at 1.1164 and the daily pivot at 1.12071, with the daily, four-hour and one-hour trend all pointing lower and the daily RSI at a low 22.9. A break above R1 at 1.12503 would shift focus toward R2 at 1.13053, while a slide through S1 at 1.11521 would bring S2 at 1.11089 into view, with the daily pivot at 1.12071 marking the line between the two paths.

Today's session carries several scheduled catalysts on both sides of the pair, led by the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, against a backdrop where speculators were already net short EUR/USD as of the week to September 29, 2026.