US ISM Manufacturing PMI
United States · USD · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD) moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is ISM Manufacturing?
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at US factories. It comes out on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. New York time. A reading above 50 means activity grew; below 50, it shrank.
Because it is one of the first figures for each month, traders read it as an early signal of the economy's direction. Its price and employment sub-indices also feed into inflation and jobs expectations.
Read more: Fundamental Analysis in Forex.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 10.5 pips | 24.9 pips | 35.3 pips 2 Mar 2026 | Higher 2, lower 3 of 5 | Higher 2, lower 3 of 6 |
| USD/JPY | 12.9 pips | 22.1 pips | 35.9 pips 2 Feb 2026 | Higher 3, lower 2 of 5 | Higher 3, lower 3 of 6 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $7.50 | $17.99 | $99.11 2 Feb 2026 | Higher 3, lower 2 of 5 | Higher 3, lower 3 of 6 |
| Last 11 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h | USD/JPY 1h | Gold 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 1 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC | 54.5 | 55 | −0.5 | −30.2 pips | −18 pips | −$2.25 |
| Tue 1 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC | 54.6 | 55.2 | −0.6 | −4.9 pips | +4.9 pips | −$5.02 |
| Mon 3 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC | 55.6 | 54 | +1.6 | −13 pips | +9.6 pips | +$3.95 |
| Wed 1 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC | 53.3 | 54 | −0.7 | 0 pips | −0.9 pips | +$1.85 |
| Mon 1 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC | 54 | 53 | +1 | +9.3 pips | −1.6 pips | +$8.30 |
| Fri 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC | 52.7 | 53 | −0.3 | +5.3 pips | +13.7 pips | +$6.36 |
| Wed 1 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC | 52.7 | 52.5 | +0.2 | +10.5 pips | −12.9 pips | +$22.58 |
| Mon 2 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC | 52.4 | 51.8 | +0.6 | −35.3 pips | +24.3 pips | −$17.27 |
| Mon 2 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC | 52.6 | 48.5 | +4.1 | −28.6 pips | +35.9 pips | −$99.11 |
| Mon 5 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC | 47.9 | 48.3 | −0.4 | +18.6 pips | −16.8 pips | +$11.92 |
| Mon 1 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC | 48.2 | 48.6 | −0.4 | −3.3 pips | +9.9 pips | −$7.50 |
| Mon 3 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC | 48.7 | 49.5 | −0.8 | – | – | – |
ISM Manufacturing FAQ
When is the next ISM Manufacturing release?
The next ISM Manufacturing release is scheduled for Mon 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after ISM Manufacturing?
Over the last 11 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after ISM Manufacturing was 10.5 pips, and 24.9 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 35.3 pips on 2 Mar 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
How much does USD/JPY move after ISM Manufacturing?
Over the last 11 releases, the typical move in USD/JPY one hour after ISM Manufacturing was 12.9 pips, and 22.1 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 35.9 pips on 2 Feb 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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