AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision Forecast and AUD/USD Scenarios

Event preview Neutral bias Sep 29, 2026, 01:32 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift its interest rate to 4.6% today. AUD/USD technical trends remain mixed as the pair trades just above 0.70000 ahead of the decision.

RBA Rate Outlook and Market Expectations

Today at 04:30 UTC, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to release its interest rate decision, with the market estimating a hike to 4.6% from the previous 4.35%. Alongside the rate decision, the RBA will publish its Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement, followed by a press conference at 05:30 UTC. As context for the US dollar side of the pair, US Treasury yields at the September 28 close showed the 2-year yield at 4.92%, up 11 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.24%. Recent coverage from financial publishers like FX Street and Forexcom centers on the pair's technical support levels and the market's anticipation of the central bank's next move.

Current AUD/USD Positioning and Trends

During the Asia session, AUD/USD trades at 0.70093, down 0.09% on the day. The market presents a mixed daily trend, although the price remains above the 200-day exponential moving average of 0.69664. Shorter timeframes suggest weakness, with both the 4-hour and 1-hour trends pointing downward. Yesterday's close settled at 0.70156 following a daily high of 0.70383 and a low of 0.70036. Today's intraday range has covered 12.2 pips, representing 28% of the 14-day average true range of 44.2 pips.

The 5-day window shows a low of 0.70029 and a high of 0.71249, with the pair declining 1.5% over that period. Over the 20-day window, the price recorded a low of 0.70029 and a high of 0.72369, marking a drop of 2.16%. The nearest support rests at the previous day low of 0.70036, while the daily pivot acts as the nearest resistance at 0.70192.

In the futures market, as of the week to September 22, positioning data showed large speculators were net short AUD/USD. The report also highlighted that speculators added to net short AUD/USD. Meanwhile, news sentiment leans bullish at 69%, with the media mood registering 100 out of 100, even as an independent opportunity reading sits at -5.

Trading Scenarios Post Announcement

If the RBA announcement drives the pair higher, a break above R1 at 0.70347 would open the way to a target of R2 at 0.70539. A subsequent retreat below the daily pivot at 0.70192 would invalidate that bullish view. On the other hand, a move lower that triggers S1 at 0.7 may clear the path toward S2 at 0.69845. This bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price reclaims the daily pivot at 0.70192.

Key Economic Releases Impacting the Pair

Following the RBA event, economic calendar attention will shift to the US session today, featuring JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC. The US Housing Price Index is also scheduled for 13:00 UTC. Throughout the day, markets will monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Musalem at 11:30 UTC, Bowman at 15:00 UTC, Barr at 16:40 UTC, Goolsbee at 17:00 UTC, Williams at 18:00 UTC, and Waller at 19:00 UTC. Tomorrow, the focus returns to Australia with the release of the Trimmed Mean CPI at 01:30 UTC.