US Core PCE Price Index
United States · USD · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD) moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is Core PCE?
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index measures US inflation without food and energy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes it monthly, usually near the end of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time, in the Personal Income and Outlays report.
It is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets. Because CPI comes out earlier in the month, much of the PCE figure is often estimated in advance, so its surprises tend to be smaller than CPI's.
Read more: CPI and Forex.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 10.3 pips | 21.3 pips | 47.6 pips 30 Jul 2026 | Higher 1, lower 0 of 1 | Higher 1, lower 1 of 2 |
| USD/JPY | 18.9 pips | 24.4 pips | 315.1 pips 30 Jul 2026 | Higher 1, lower 0 of 1 | Higher 1, lower 1 of 2 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $9.23 | $33.11 | $42.55 28 May 2026 | Higher 1, lower 0 of 1 | Higher 1, lower 1 of 2 |
| Last 11 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h | USD/JPY 1h | Gold 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0% | −6.6 pips | −18.9 pips | +$4.26 |
| Wed 30 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3% | 3.3% | −0.3% | +5.5 pips | −23.1 pips | −$9.23 |
| Wed 26 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0% | −16.3 pips | +31.4 pips | +$6.79 |
| Thu 30 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0% | +47.6 pips | −315.1 pips | +$34.56 |
| Thu 25 Jun 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0% | +25.9 pips | −12.4 pips | +$21.90 |
| Thu 28 May 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0% | +13.7 pips | −0.9 pips | +$42.55 |
| Thu 30 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0% | −14 pips | +54.3 pips | −$19.37 |
| Thu 9 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3% | 3% | 0% | −6.5 pips | +19 pips | +$7.84 |
| Fri 13 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0% | +10.3 pips | −18.7 pips | −$5.95 |
| Fri 20 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC | 3% | 2.9% | +0.1% | +1.9 pips | +15.6 pips | +$29.19 |
| Fri 5 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC | 2.8% | 2.9% | −0.1% | −2 pips | +3.1 pips | +$1.63 |
Core PCE Previews
Aisha RahmanCore PCE FAQ
When is the next Core PCE release?
The next Core PCE release is scheduled for Fri 27 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after Core PCE?
Over the last 11 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after Core PCE was 10.3 pips, and 21.3 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 47.6 pips on 30 Jul 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
How much does USD/JPY move after Core PCE?
Over the last 11 releases, the typical move in USD/JPY one hour after Core PCE was 18.9 pips, and 24.4 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 315.1 pips on 30 Jul 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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