Nasdaq 100 (US100) Forecast Today: Index Tests Pivot Support

Daily outlook Neutral bias Sep 23, 2026, 12:17 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

The Nasdaq 100 is trading slightly lower, testing intraday support ahead of high-impact US PMI data. Conflicting signals across the hourly and daily timeframes suggest a neutral outlook until key pivot levels are breached.

Nasdaq 100 Edges Lower in the Overlap Session

Trading in the London and New York overlap, the Nasdaq 100 (US100) is priced at 30633.9, down 65.9 points or 0.21% on the day from the previous close. The bid sits at 30633.9 and the ask at 30636.4, reflecting a spread of 2.5 points. The index opened the session at 30713.3 and has since formed an intraday range between the day high at 30795.1 and the day low at 30612.3. That 182.8-point span accounts for 40% of the 14-day ATR, which stands at 458.1 points.

Trend and Momentum Show Conflicting Signals

The technical evidence presents a mixed picture across timeframes. The daily chart maintains an upward trend, with price positioned above the 200-day exponential moving average of 27513.6, as well as the 20-day EMA at 29553.4 and the 50-day EMA at 29349.5, alongside a 14-day RSI reading of 68.6. The 4-hour timeframe aligns with this bullish posture, recording its own upward trend with the 20-period EMA at 30327.3 and the 50-period EMA at 29878.1. However, the hourly chart currently shows a mixed trend, anchored around its 20-period EMA of 30675.2 and 50-period EMA of 30474.5. Because these timeframes disagree, our overall bias remains neutral.

Key Price Levels Framing the Action

To the downside, the nearest support sits at the daily pivot of 30610.8, positioned 23.1 points away from the current price. On the upside, the closest resistance is the previous day high of 30763.5, located 129.6 points above the market. Looking at the wider structure, the 5-day window shows a high of 30763.5 and a low of 28744.6, reflecting a 5-day change of 5.73%. The 20-day range mirrors these extremes, bounded by its own high of 30763.5 and low of 28744.6, with a 20-day performance showing a 4.87% gain. Yesterday's price action closed out with a 394.4-point range, forming a high of 30763.5 and a low of 30369.1 after opening at 30493.1. Traders can also note round numbers framing the action, with 31000 above and 30000 below. Additional structural resistance levels include R1 at 30852.5, R2 at 31005.2, and R3 at 31246.9, while deeper support targets sit at S1 (30458.1), S2 (30216.4), and S3 (30063.7).

Bullish and Bearish Trade Scenarios

For a bullish breakout to materialize, price needs to clear the trigger at R1 (30852.5). Passing that resistance would expose the target at R2 (31005.2), a move representing 152.7 points of potential travel from the trigger. A retreat below the daily pivot at 30610.8 would invalidate this setup.

On the downside, a bearish move requires the index to breach support at the S1 trigger of 30458.1. Should sellers force a break there, the next target emerges at S2 (30216.4), which sits 241.7 points below the trigger. This bearish outlook is negated if the market climbs back above the daily pivot at 30610.8.

US PMI Data and Yields to Drive Action

Today's economic calendar features a cluster of US reports at 13:45 UTC, starting with the S&P Global Services PMI, a high-impact release that carries an estimate of 56 compared to the previous 56.5. At the same time, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 53.5, down from a previous 53.9. The medium-impact S&P Global Composite PMI will also release at 13:45 UTC, following its previous reading of 56. Shortly after, the Federal Reserve's Barr is scheduled to speak at 14:05 UTC. In the newsflow, coverage centers on the index reaching record highs and ongoing themes surrounding AI, as reported by Market Watch, Yahoo Finance, and Invezz. According to news sentiment data, the tone remains largely positive with a 74% bullish share against a 26% bearish share, accompanied by an opportunity score of 31. The media mood, however, dropped to 37 from 86 over the past day, while news volume is currently registering at 198% of its 90-day average. Adding broader context, US Treasury yields at the September 22 close saw the 3-month yield at 4.16% and the 2-year yield down 5 basis points at 4.71%, while the 10-year yield held at 4.96% with the 2s10s curve at 25 basis points.

Bottom Line

The Nasdaq 100 is probing near-term support at the daily pivot, with conflicting trend signals between the hourly and daily timeframes dictating a neutral stance. The index remains positioned between the S1 trigger and the previous day high. Upcoming US PMI data and scheduled Fed commentary stand as the immediate items on the economic calendar.