US Retail Sales
United States · USD · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD) moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is US Retail Sales?
US retail sales measure the monthly change in sales at shops, car dealers, petrol stations, restaurants and online retailers. The Census Bureau publishes them around the middle of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
Consumer spending is the largest part of the US economy, so a strong or weak month changes growth and interest rate expectations. The control group, which leaves out volatile categories, often matters as much as the headline.
Read more: Fundamental Analysis in Forex.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 10.7 pips | 12.2 pips | 21.9 pips 10 Feb 2026 | Higher 4, lower 3 of 7 | Higher 3, lower 0 of 3 |
| USD/JPY | 20.6 pips | 20.4 pips | 79.2 pips 10 Feb 2026 | Higher 3, lower 4 of 7 | Higher 0, lower 3 of 3 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $15.37 | $20.59 | $48.16 16 Jul 2026 | Higher 3, lower 4 of 7 | Higher 3, lower 0 of 3 |
| Last 12 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h | USD/JPY 1h | Gold 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC | 0.8% | 0.3% | +0.5% | +11.3 pips | −33.3 pips | +$9.65 |
| Wed 16 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC | 1.2% | 0.8% | +0.4% | −2.6 pips | +24.4 pips | −$3.22 |
| Fri 14 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC | -0.4% | 0.3% | −0.7% | +15 pips | −16.7 pips | +$15.22 |
| Thu 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | −19 pips | +16.8 pips | −$48.16 |
| Wed 17 Jun 2026, 12:30 UTC | 0.9% | 0.5% | +0.4% | +5.5 pips | −11.3 pips | +$16.77 |
| Thu 14 May 2026, 12:30 UTC | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0% | −10 pips | −6.6 pips | −$14.90 |
| Tue 21 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC | 1.7% | 1.4% | +0.3% | −1.5 pips | +4.6 pips | −$15.51 |
| Wed 1 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC | 0.6% | 0.5% | +0.1% | +4.7 pips | +26.2 pips | −$14.33 |
| Fri 6 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.1% | +17.1 pips | −33.3 pips | +$47.14 |
| Tue 10 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC | 0% | 0.4% | −0.4% | +21.9 pips | −79.2 pips | +$7.44 |
| Wed 14 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC | 0.6% | 0.4% | +0.2% | −3.8 pips | −34.9 pips | −$21.07 |
| Tue 16 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC | 0% | 0.1% | −0.1% | +21.7 pips | −0.9 pips | +$29.61 |
US Retail Sales Previews
Aisha RahmanUS Retail Sales FAQ
When is the next US Retail Sales release?
The next US Retail Sales release is scheduled for Tue 17 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after US Retail Sales?
Over the last 12 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after US Retail Sales was 10.7 pips, and 12.2 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 21.9 pips on 10 Feb 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
How much does USD/JPY move after US Retail Sales?
Over the last 12 releases, the typical move in USD/JPY one hour after US Retail Sales was 20.6 pips, and 20.4 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 79.2 pips on 10 Feb 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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