US Retail Sales Today: Levels for EUR/USD, Gold, US100

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 15, 2026, 02:37 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

US Retail Sales lands at 12:30 UTC with the estimate at 0.3% against a 1.2% prior; EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold and the Nasdaq 100 are each testing support and resistance levels, with the dollar's broader direction still mixed across pairs.

What's Due at 12:30 UTC Today

Trading is moving through the Asia session, with London set to open at 07:00 UTC and the next major catalyst landing well after that: Retail Sales (MoM) at 12:30 UTC, estimated at 0.3% against a previous reading of 1.2%. The same release carries the Retail Sales Control Group, whose previous reading was 1.4%, and the core Producer Price Index (YoY), estimated at 4.4% versus a prior 4.6%.

Overnight coverage from FX Street and ExchangeRates has centered on a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, which according to that reporting may be keeping the dollar supported against the euro and yen and weighing on gold.

Four Markets Heading Into the Data

Where Each Market Stands

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is changing hands at 1.12166, up 0.55% on the day, sitting between the 5-day high at 1.12421, acting as nearby resistance 25.5 pips away, and the previous day high at 1.12108, just 5.8 pips below as the closest support. The daily pivot sits lower still at 1.11597. Today's range, from a low of 1.1147 to a high of 1.12281, has already run to 127% of the 14-day ATR of 63.7 pips, while the daily trend points down even as the 4-hour trend is mixed.

Over the last 12 releases of this data, measured on hourly bars, this is past behavior rather than a forecast of today's print: the typical move an hour later was 6.9 pips. In the six cases where the result came in above estimate, the pair closed higher an hour later four times and lower twice; in the four cases below estimate, it closed higher three times and lower once. A move of that typical size would carry the pair up to 1.12235 with no levels in between, or down to 1.12097, a path that would put the previous day high at 1.12108 inside its range. More detail on the pair is available in ForexR's EUR/USD analysis.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY last traded at 157.678, down 0.39% on the day, between S2 at 157.515 and S1 at 157.904, with the daily pivot well above at 158.416. S1 is the nearest resistance, 22.6 pips away, and S2 the nearest support, 16.3 pips away, making S2 the closer of the two levels to current price. The day's range, from 157.561 to 158.314, equals 72% of the 14-day ATR of 103.9 pips, and the daily and 4-hour readings diverge, with the daily trend down and the 4-hour mixed.

Across the same 12 past releases, the typical move an hour later was 14 pips. The six above-estimate cases split evenly, with the pair closing higher three times and lower three times; the four below-estimate cases also split evenly, two higher and two lower. A move of that typical size from here would reach 157.818 on the upside or 157.538 on the downside, with no other levels inside either path. See ForexR's USD/JPY analysis for more on the pair.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is at 4137.47, up 0.79% on the day, between the daily pivot at 4115.04, the nearest support 22.43 dollars below, and R1 at 4156.77, the nearest resistance 19.3 dollars above. The day's range spans 4099.90 to 4151.27, equal to 62% of the 14-day ATR of 83.04 dollars; both the daily and 4-hour trends point down.

In the same 12 past releases, the typical move an hour later was 16.14 dollars. The six above-estimate cases closed lower an hour later four times and higher twice; the four below-estimate cases split evenly, two higher and two lower. A move of that typical size would reach 4153.61 on the upside, with no levels in between, or 4121.33 on the downside, also with nothing in between.

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

The index last printed 29657.3, down 0.87% on the day, between S2 at 29356.6 and S1 at 29663.5, which sits just 6.2 points above and is the nearest resistance; S2, 300.7 points below, is the nearest support. The daily pivot is well above at 30168. The day's range, from 29651.4 to 29941.2, equals 62% of the 14-day ATR of 465.5 points; the daily trend is mixed while the 4-hour trend is down.

Across the same 12 releases, the typical move an hour later was 66.45 points. The six above-estimate cases closed lower an hour later four times and higher twice; the four below-estimate cases split evenly, two higher and two lower. A move of that typical size would reach 29723.8 on the upside, a path that would put S1 at 29663.5 inside its range, or 29590.9 on the downside with nothing in between.

Scenario Map

None of the following paths is tied to today's data; they simply map where each instrument's pivots line up on either side of price.

• EUR/USD: a break above R2 at 1.12581 would open the way to R3 at 1.13053, invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11597; on the other side, a break below S1 at 1.11085 would open the way to S2 at 1.10613, invalidated by a recovery back above the same pivot.
• USD/JPY: clearing R1 at 158.805 would open the way to R2 at 159.317, invalidated below the daily pivot at 158.416; losing S2 at 157.515 would open the way to S3 at 157.003, invalidated by a move back above that pivot.
• Gold: a push through R1 at 4156.77 would open the way to R2 at 4212.01, invalidated by a slip back under the daily pivot at 4115.04; a drop through S1 at 4059.80 would open the way to S2 at 4018.07, invalidated by a bounce back above the pivot.
• Nasdaq 100: reclaiming R1 at 30474.9 would open the way to R2 at 30979.4, invalidated below the daily pivot at 30168; a slide through S2 at 29356.6 would open the way to S3 at 28852.1, invalidated by a recovery back above the pivot.

Positioning and the Yield Backdrop

As of the week to October 6, speculators were net short EUR/USD and added to that short, net short USD/JPY and also added to it, net long Gold and trimmed that long, and net long the Nasdaq 100 and added to it over the week.

Treasury yields at yesterday's close on October 14 put the 2-year at 4.82%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.19%, down 2 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 37 basis points.

Other Events on the Calendar

Tomorrow brings a run of central bank speeches: Bank of England Governor Bailey at 02:00 UTC, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem at 04:15 UTC. Readers tracking the full slate of scheduled releases can use ForexR's economic calendar guide.

Bottom Line

Retail Sales (MoM) lands at 12:30 UTC today with the estimate at 0.3% against a 1.2% previous reading. Into that print, EUR/USD sits closest to the previous day high at 1.12108, USD/JPY to S2 at 157.515, Gold to R1 at 4156.77, and the Nasdaq 100 to S1 at 29663.5.