What is the USD Nonfarm Payrolls forecast today?

The calendar estimate for US Nonfarm Payrolls today is 65, against a previous reading of 29. Average Hourly Earnings month on month is estimated at 0.3 versus a previous 0.1, and year on year at 2.9 versus a previous 3. Those are estimates on the calendar, not a statement of the result.

What time is US Nonfarm Payrolls released?

US Nonfarm Payrolls is scheduled today at 13:30 UTC, in the same minute as US average hourly earnings and Canada's unemployment rate and net change in employment. The session now is Asia, and London opens at 07:00 UTC.

How could Nonfarm Payrolls move EUR/USD, gold and the Nasdaq 100?

Past hourly moves are not a forecast of this release. The typical move an hour later was 23.8 pips on EUR/USD, 29.32 dollars on gold and 130.65 points on the Nasdaq 100. In 4 of the 6 above-estimate releases EUR/USD closed lower an hour later, in 5 of the 5 below-estimate releases gold closed higher an hour later, and in 4 of the 5 above-estimate releases the Nasdaq closed higher an hour later.

Do average hourly earnings matter as much as the headline payrolls number?

The calendar does not rank Average Hourly Earnings against Nonfarm Payrolls. Both earnings series are listed today at 13:30 UTC with the payrolls figure: month on month previous 0.1 and estimate 0.3, year on year previous 3 and estimate 2.9.

USD Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Asia Session Levels

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 6, 2026, 03:45 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

Neutral Asia-session bias into today's 13:30 UTC Nonfarm Payrolls, estimate 65 versus previous 29. The four markets do not share one dollar direction.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) calendar page.

Calculator; pencils; paper and paper files on black background

Instrument	Last	Day change	Pivot	Daily trend
EUR/USD	1.12022	-0.14%	1.12293	Down
USD/JPY	157.817	+0.11%	157.878	Down
Gold (XAU/USD)	4,045.40	-1.06%	4,097.77	Down
Nasdaq 100 (US100)	26,877.9	+1.45%	27,162.1	Down
Data as of 2026-11-06 03:34 UTC.

Asia session, neutral bias

Bias is neutral in the Asia session. Daily trends are down on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold and the Nasdaq 100, but a lower EUR/USD and a lower USD/JPY point opposite ways for the dollar. Four-hour trends are mixed on both pairs, up on gold and down on the Nasdaq 100.

Payrolls at 13:30 UTC

London opens at 07:00 UTC. US Nonfarm Payrolls is due today at 13:30 UTC, previous 29 and estimate 65, with Average Hourly Earnings month on month at previous 0.1 and estimate 0.3, and year on year at previous 3 and estimate 2.9. Earlier payrolls prints and the hourly moves after them are the record behind the counts below. Canada is out in that same minute: the unemployment rate, previous 6.5 and estimate 6.5, and net change in employment, previous -68.3 and estimate 13.6.

Forexcom links a fading dollar-bear case and high USD/JPY volatility to the payrolls release. FX Street sets gold and silver next to that release, while FXEmpire describes gold pushing against a downtrend.

Four markets before the print

Instrument	Last	Change %	Daily trend	Typical move an hour after this release
EUR/USD	1.12022	-0.14	down	23.8 pips
USD/JPY	157.817	+0.11	down	27.5 pips
Gold (XAU/USD)	4045.4	-1.06	down	29.32 dollars
Nasdaq 100 (US100)	26877.9	+1.45	down	130.65 points

EUR/USD at 1.12022 is down 0.14% on the day, between S1 at 1.11909 and the daily pivot at 1.12293. The previous day low at 1.12026 is 0.4 pips above price, and nearest support is S1 at 1.11909, 11.3 pips below. The day's range is 50% of the 14-day ATR of 64.2 pips. Across 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 23.8 pips. In 4 of the 6 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed lower an hour later, and in 2 of those 6 it closed higher. In 4 of the 5 releases that came in below the estimate, it closed higher an hour later, and in 1 of those 5 it closed lower. A move of that size reaches 1.1226, including the previous day low at 1.12026, and 1.11784, including S1 at 1.11909. That record is past behavior, not a forecast of this release.

USD/JPY at 157.817 is up 0.11% on the day, between S1 at 157.278 and the daily pivot at 157.878. Nearest resistance is that daily pivot, 6.1 pips away, and nearest support is the previous day low at 157.518, 29.9 pips away. The day's range is 80% of the 14-day ATR of 93.3 pips. Across 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 27.5 pips. In 5 of the 6 releases that came in above the estimate, USD/JPY closed lower an hour later, and in 1 of those 6 it closed higher. In 4 of the 5 releases that came in below the estimate, it closed lower an hour later, and in 1 of those 5 it closed higher. A move of that size reaches 158.092, including the daily pivot at 157.878, or 157.542, with no listed level inside that lower span.

Gold at 4045.4 is down 1.06% on the day, between S2 at 4008.74 and S1 at 4048.77. Nearest resistance is S1 at 4048.77, 3.37 dollars away, and nearest support is S2 at 4008.74, 36.66 dollars away. The day's range is 73% of the 14-day ATR of 84.43 dollars. Across 10 releases, the typical move an hour later was 29.32 dollars. In 3 of the 5 releases that came in above the estimate, gold closed lower an hour later, and in 2 of those 5 it closed higher. In 5 of the 5 releases that came in below the estimate, gold closed higher an hour later, and in 0 of those 5 it closed lower. A move of that size reaches 4074.72, including S1 at 4048.77 and the previous day low at 4057.74, or 4016.08, with no listed level inside that lower span.

The Nasdaq 100 at 26877.9 is up 1.45% on the day, between S1 at 25785.1 and the daily pivot at 27162.1. Nearest resistance is that daily pivot, 284.2 points away, and nearest support is the previous day low at 26452.6, 425.3 points away. The day's range is 109% of the 14-day ATR of 735.12 points. Across 10 releases, the typical move an hour later was 130.65 points. In 4 of the 5 releases that came in above the estimate, the Nasdaq closed higher an hour later, and in 1 of those 5 it closed lower. In 3 of the 5 releases that came in below the estimate, it closed higher an hour later, and in 2 of those 5 it closed lower. A move of that size reaches 27008.6 or 26747.3, with no listed level inside either distance.

Level maps, not the print

These pivot levels are maps only, not tied to the release, and neither path is ranked.

On EUR/USD, a break above R1 at 1.12559 would open the way to R2 at 1.12943, and a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12293 would invalidate that view. If S1 at 1.11909 gives way, the path points to S2 at 1.11643, and a move back above the daily pivot at 1.12293 would invalidate it.

On USD/JPY, clearing R1 at 158.239 would bring R2 at 158.839 into view, with the path failing on a return below the daily pivot at 157.878. A break below S1 at 157.278 would open the way to S2 at 156.917, invalidated by a move back above the daily pivot at 157.878.

On gold, a break above R1 at 4137.8 would open the way to R2 at 4186.8, and a move back below the daily pivot at 4097.77 would invalidate it. A break below S2 at 4008.74 would open S3 at 3959.74, and a return above the daily pivot at 4097.77 would invalidate that path.

On the Nasdaq 100, a break above R1 at 27871.5 would open R2 at 29248.5, failing on a move back below the daily pivot at 27162.1. A break below S1 at 25785.1 would open S2 at 25075.7, failing on a move back above the daily pivot at 27162.1.

Positioning, yields, other releases

As of the week to October 27, speculators were net short EUR/USD and added to that net short, and net short USD/JPY and added to that net short. They were net long gold and reduced that net long, and net long the Nasdaq 100 and reduced that net long.

At the November 5 close, the 2-year yield was 4.46%, down 12 basis points, and the 10-year yield was 4.84%, down 6 basis points, with the 2s10s spread at 38 basis points. That is context, not a cause of these prices.

EMU Retail Sales year on year is due today at 10:00 UTC, previous 0.8 and estimate 0.6. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due today at 15:00 UTC, previous 48 and estimate 48. The BoJ Governor Ueda speech is due today at 16:00 UTC, with no previous figure and no estimate.

Bottom line

US Nonfarm Payrolls is today at 13:30 UTC, estimate 65 against a previous 29. The nearest level is the previous day low at 1.12026 on EUR/USD, the daily pivot at 157.878 on USD/JPY, S1 at 4048.77 on gold, and the daily pivot at 27162.1 on the Nasdaq 100.