USD/JPY Forecast Today: Neutral Below the Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 29, 2026, 07:34 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY is almost flat at 157.814 in London, between S1 at 157.52 and the daily pivot at 157.922. Mixed daily and hourly trends against an up four-hour trend leave the bias neutral into the 12:30 UTC US data.

Where USD/JPY stands in London

USD/JPY is little changed in the London session, last at 157.814, up 0.005 on the day with the percentage change at 0. The previous close stands at 157.809 and the day open at 157.793, with the day low at 157.582 and the day high at 158.047. The day range of 46.5 pips is 49% of the 14-day ATR of 94.3 pips. New York joins at 12:00 UTC, and the live USD/JPY rate shows a spread of 4.6 pips.

Trend and momentum do not agree

The daily, four-hour and one-hour trends do not line up, and the bias is neutral. The daily state is mixed: price is below the 200-day EMA at 157.919, the 20-day EMA is at 157.724 and the 50-day EMA is at 157.925. The four-hour state is up, with the 20-period EMA at 157.719 and the 50-period EMA at 157.697. The one-hour state is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 157.846 and the 50-period EMA at 157.793.

The 14-day RSI on the daily chart is 50.9. The five-day change is -0.19%, while the 20-day change is 0.27%.

Levels around the London price

Price is between S1 at 157.52 and the daily pivot at 157.922. Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 157.922, 10.8 pips from the last price. Nearest support is the previous day low at 157.633, 18.1 pips away. The day high at 158.047 is above that pivot, and the last price at 157.814 is below it.

On the daily pivot map, R1 is at 158.211, R2 at 158.613 and R3 at 158.902, with S1 at 157.52, S2 at 157.231 and S3 at 156.829. Yesterday's bar, from October 28, shows a high at 158.324, a low at 157.633, a close at 157.809 and a range of 69.1 pips.

The five-day high is 158.324 and the five-day low is 156.056. The 20-day high is 158.927 and the 20-day low is 156.056. The round level above is 158 and the round level below is 157.5, with the day high at 158.047 above 158 and the day low at 157.582 above 157.5.

Bullish scenario and bearish scenario

A break above R1 at 158.211 would open the way to R2 at 158.613, a 40.2-pip distance from trigger to target. The invalidation on that path is the daily pivot at 157.922, and the last price at 157.814 is already below that pivot.

A break below S1 at 157.52 would open the way to S2 at 157.231, 28.9 pips from trigger to target. That bearish path would be invalidated by a move back above the daily pivot at 157.922.

What can move USD/JPY today

The US slate on the economic calendar today is concentrated at 12:30 UTC, after New York joins at 12:00 UTC. High-impact releases are gross domestic product annualized, previous 2.2 and estimate 3.2; the GDP price index, previous 6.1 and estimate 3.5; core personal consumption expenditures month on month, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3; and core PCE year on year, previous 3 and estimate 3.1. Medium-impact prints at the same time are personal spending, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.6; personal income, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3; initial jobless claims, previous 194 and estimate 199; the PCE price index year on year, previous 3.4 and estimate 3.6; the PCE price index month on month, previous 0.3 and estimate 0.5; PCE prices quarter on quarter, previous 5 and estimate 3.4; and core PCE quarter on quarter, previous 3.3 and estimate 2.4.

Later today, at 23:30 UTC, Tokyo CPI year on year is due with a previous reading of 2.7 and no estimate listed. Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food is previous 2.7 with an estimate of 2.6, and the unemployment rate is previous 2.5 with an estimate of 2.5. The calendar supplies those priors and estimates, not a history of how the pair reacted before, so this is not a forecast of the move.

Policy meetings are the thread in the newsflow. Forex.com ties USD/JPY to the Bank of Japan and the Fed, while FXEmpire writes about the dollar ahead of a Fed decision.

As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net short USD/JPY. Over that week, speculators added to net short USD/JPY, a positioning record rather than a forecast.

US Treasury yields from the October 28 close sit a day behind this London session and remain context, not a proven cause. The 2-year yield was at 4.67%, down 3 basis points versus October 27, the 10-year yield was at 5.05%, up 6 basis points, the 3-month yield was at 4.18%, and the 2s10s curve stood at 38 basis points.

News volume is 84% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read is bearish at a score of -32. An alert records that read moving from 53, marked bullish, to -49, marked bearish, within 24 hours, which is coverage tone and not a forecast.

Bottom line

USD/JPY trades at 157.814 in London, up 0.005 and flat at 0% on the day, with a day range of 46.5 pips at 49% of the 94.3-pip ATR. Daily and one-hour trends are mixed and the four-hour trend is up, so the evidence does not pick a side. Price remains between the previous day low at 157.633 and the daily pivot at 157.922, with R1 at 158.211 and S1 at 157.52 as the scenario triggers ahead of the 12:30 UTC US releases and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC.