Why is USD/JPY under pressure today?

USD/JPY trades at 157.087, below the daily pivot at 157.215, with the daily and four-hour trends both in a down state and the 20-day performance down 1.1%. Newsflow from outlets including Action Forex and Forex.com links the move to a broader risk-off tone tied to an AI-related equity selloff, though that is a theme in the coverage rather than a confirmed cause.

What US data could move USD/JPY today?

S&P Global's Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are due at 13:45 UTC, followed at 14:00 UTC by University of Michigan inflation expectations and consumer sentiment and expectations readings. The Services PMI estimate of 57.9 compares with a previous reading of 58.8, and the Manufacturing PMI estimate of 55.6 compares with 55.9 previously.

What are the key levels to watch on USD/JPY?

Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 157.215, about 12.8 pips above current price, with the previous day low at 156.669 the nearest support, roughly 41.8 pips below. Further out, R1 sits at 157.762 and S1 at 156.201, with the five-day range running from 156.669 to 158.579 and the 20-day range from 156.356 to 158.927.

Is speculator positioning bullish or bearish for USD/JPY?

CFTC data for the week to October 13 show large speculators net short USD/JPY, though that net short position was reduced from the prior week. This reflects futures positioning as of that date and is not a forecast for today's session.

USD/JPY Forecast Today: Price Stalls Below the Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 23, 2026, 06:48 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY is wedged between the previous day low at 156.669 and the daily pivot at 157.215, with the daily and H4 trends pointing lower ahead of today's US PMI and sentiment data.

Unrecognizable man writing plan in journal and gadgets lying around on desk

Price157.087

Day change+0.22%

Day range156.056 - 157.138

ATR (14)0.985

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	159.323	S1	156.201
R2	158.776	S2	155.654
R1	157.762	S3	154.640
Previous day high	158.230	Previous day low	156.669
20-day high	158.927	20-day low	156.356
Daily pivot 157.215. Data as of 2026-10-23 06:46 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/JPY 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 157.215, R1 157.762, R2 158.776, S1 156.201, S2 155.654 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/JPY, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-23 06:46 UTC.

Where USD/JPY Stands Now

USD/JPY trades at 157.087 in the Asian session, up 0.34 on the day, or 0.22%, against the previous close of 156.747. The session has carved out a range from the day low of 156.056 to the day high of 157.138, after opening at 156.733.

That range already spans 108.2 pips, equal to 110% of the 14-day ATR of 98.5 pips, so the day's swing has already exceeded the typical volatility window measured over the past two weeks.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The daily chart is in a down state, with price below the 200-day EMA at 157.889 and the 20- and 50-day EMAs at 157.808 and 157.994 stacked above spot. The four-hour chart also reads down, with EMA20 at 157.512 sitting under EMA50 at 157.825.

The one-hour picture is mixed, with EMA20 at 156.963 and EMA50 at 157.319 not giving a clean directional read. Daily RSI14 sits at 40.7, below the midpoint, while five-day performance is down 0.56% and the 20-day change is down 1.1%, consistent with the broader daily and four-hour alignment even as the shortest timeframe stays unsettled.

Key Levels in Play

Price currently sits between S1 at 156.201 and the daily pivot, with the nearest resistance being that daily pivot at 157.215, just 12.8 pips away, and the nearest support the previous day low at 156.669, 41.8 pips away.

Above the pivot, R1 stands at 157.762, R2 at 158.776 and R3 at 159.323. Below S1, S2 is at 155.654 and S3 at 154.64. Yesterday's session, dated October 22, ran from an open of 158.098 to a high of 158.23 and a low of 156.669 before closing at 156.747, a range of 156.1 pips. The five-day window shows a high of 158.579 and a low of 156.669, while the 20-day window shows a wider high of 158.927 and low of 156.356. The round number at 157.00 sits just below spot and 157.50 sits above it. A pivot point calculator can help track how these levels shift as the session develops.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R1 at 157.762 would open a path toward R2 at 158.776, a move of 101.4 pips from trigger to target; that view would be invalidated by a slide back below the daily pivot at 157.215.

On the downside, a break of S1 at 156.201 would expose S2 at 155.654, a 54.7-pip move, with the same daily pivot at 157.215 serving as the level that would undercut the case if price reclaims it.

What Could Move It Today

The US calendar is busy. At 13:45 UTC, S&P Global releases its Services PMI, previously 58.8 and estimated at 57.9, alongside the Manufacturing PMI, previously 55.9 and estimated at 55.6, and the Composite PMI, previously 58.4 with no estimate given. At 14:00 UTC, the University of Michigan publishes its 5-year inflation expectation (previous and estimate both 3.5), its 1-year inflation expectation (previous and estimate both 4.7), the Consumer Sentiment Index (previous and estimate both 46.3) and the Consumer Expectations Index, previously 47.3 with no estimate listed.

Coverage from Action Forex and Forex.com frames the pair's pullback as part of a broader risk-off tone tied to an AI-related selloff spreading into equity markets, while FXEmpire points to the dollar easing back from session highs alongside softer Treasury yields.

CFTC data for the week to October 13 show large speculators net short USD/JPY, with that weekly shift showing speculators reduced their net short USD/JPY position from the prior week — positioning context only, not a signal for today's session. US Treasury yields closed on October 22 with the 2-year at 4.65%, down 16 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.96%, down 17 basis points, a backdrop for dollar demand rather than a cause of any specific move. Separately, news coverage volume around the pair runs at 77% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity reading has moved from -47 to 13 in the past 24 hours, now sitting in neutral territory — a measure of coverage tone, not a trading signal.

Bottom Line

USD/JPY is holding under the daily pivot at 157.215 with the daily and four-hour trends both pointing down, even as the one-hour picture stays mixed and today's range already runs ahead of the 14-day ATR. The previous day low at 156.669 and S1 at 156.201 are the nearer supports, while R1 at 157.762 remains the first upside hurdle ahead of a heavy slate of US PMI and sentiment data at 13:45 and 14:00 UTC. Further USD/JPY analysis and live pricing can help track how the pair reacts once London and New York trading get underway.