USD/JPY Price Prediction Today Holds a Neutral Range

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 26, 2026, 06:59 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/JPY last at 156.929 in Asia is up 0.06%, still between the daily pivot at 156.678 and R1 at 157.299. Daily and four-hour trends are down, the hourly state is mixed, and the next US data is tomorrow.

Where USD/JPY stands in the Asia session

USD/JPY, the US dollar versus the Japanese yen, last printed at 156.929 at 06:54 UTC in the Asia session, up 0.09 from the previous close at 156.839, or 0.06% on the day. The last print sits between the daily pivot at 156.678 and R1 at 157.299. Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 157.138, 20.9 pips overhead, and nearest support is the daily pivot at 156.678, 25.1 pips below. London opens at 07:00 UTC.

The day open is 156.965, the day high is 157.199 and the day low is 156.63, a day range of 56.9 pips. That range is 57% of the 14-day ATR at 99.2 pips, or 0.992 in price. On the live USD/JPY rate, the bid is 156.929 and the ask is 156.975, a spread of 4.6 pips. Yesterday's candle on October 23 opened at 156.733, reached a high at 157.138 and a low at 156.056, and yesterday's close was 156.839, with that bar covering 108.2 pips. Yesterday's close and the previous close are the same figure.

Trend and momentum across three timeframes

The daily trend state is down. Price is below the 200-day exponential moving average at 157.887, below the 20-day average at 157.716 and below the 50-day average at 157.949. Daily RSI is 41.6. The pair is down 0.66% over five days and down 0.21% over 20 days.

The four-hour trend state is down. The four-hour 20-period average is 157.174 and the four-hour 50-period average is 157.583, both above 156.929. The one-hour state is mixed: the one-hour 20-period average at 156.881 is under the last print, while the one-hour 50-period average at 157.029 is still above it. Daily and four-hour trends agree on down; the hourly state does not, so the bias stays neutral.

Pivot levels, prior ranges and round numbers

R1 is 157.299, R2 is 157.76 and R3 is 158.381. S1 is 156.217, S2 is 155.596 and S3 is 155.135, and the daily pivot at 156.678 remains the nearest support, 25.1 pips under the last print. The day high at 157.199 is still below R1 at 157.299, so this Asia range has not reached that pivot. The same map is the one on the pivot-point guide.

Yesterday's high is 157.138 and yesterday's low is 156.056. The five-day high is 158.579 and the five-day low is 156.056. The 20-day high is 158.927 and the 20-day low is 156.056. The round level below price is 156.5 and the round level above price is 157.

Bullish path and bearish path

A break above R1 at 157.299 would open the way to R2 at 157.76, 46.1 pips from that trigger to that target. A move back below the daily pivot at 156.678 would invalidate that path. R1 still sits above the day high at 157.199, above the round number at 157, and above the previous day high at 157.138.

The bearish path is anchored at S1 at 156.217, not at the daily pivot. A break below S1 would open the way to S2 at 155.596, 62.1 pips from trigger to target, and a move back above the daily pivot at 156.678 would invalidate it. S1 lies under both the pivot at 156.678 and the round level at 156.5, and yesterday's low at 156.056 sits between S1 and S2.

Tomorrow's calendar, positioning and yields

No listed release falls today. Tomorrow at 12:15 UTC, the medium-impact ADP Employment Change four-week average has a previous reading of 18.5 and no estimate. Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, four more medium-impact US prints are timed together: Durable Goods Orders, previous 0 and estimate 0.6; Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, previous 1.6 and no estimate; Durable Goods Orders ex Defense, previous 0.1 and no estimate; and Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation, previous 0.3 and estimate 0.6. The economic calendar guide tracks that timing. The schedule lists those prints without ranking one of them as enough to reach the previous day high at 157.138 or the daily pivot at 156.678.

No headlines are in the newsflow at this hour. Coverage volume is 11% of its 90-day average, while the separate opportunity read scores 45 and is marked bullish. Those readings are news sentiment only, not a positioning gauge and not confirmation of R1 at 157.299 or of the daily pivot at 156.678.

As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net short USD/JPY, and speculators added to net short USD/JPY. Yen futures were net long, 60.6% long and 39.4% short, with net contracts at 69878 versus 50207 the previous week, a change of 19671 contracts; those futures are quoted the other way round from the pair, and the report is positioning, not a forecast.

At the October 23 close, the 3-month US yield was 4.22%, the 2-year was 4.69%, up 4 basis points, and the 10-year was 5%, up 4 basis points versus October 22, with the 2s10s curve at 31 basis points. Those Treasury yields are context only, not a proven cause of the 0.06% change on the day.

Bottom line

USD/JPY at 156.929 is up 0.06% in the Asia session, with a 56.9-pip day range equal to 57% of the 99.2-pip ATR. Daily and four-hour trends point down, the hourly state is mixed, nearest resistance is the previous day high at 157.138 and nearest support is the daily pivot at 156.678. The conditional paths run from R1 at 157.299 toward R2 at 157.76, or from S1 at 156.217 toward S2 at 155.596, and the next scheduled US items are tomorrow's medium releases, after London opens at 07:00 UTC.