What to Expect From the US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 2, 2026, 13:09 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI lands at 15:00 UTC with the estimate at 54.6; EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold and the Nasdaq 100 sit at key pivot and range levels heading into the data, with no release-day directional lean assumed.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: US ISM Manufacturing PMI calendar page.

October ISM Manufacturing PMI Due at 15:00 UTC

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is due today at 15:00 UTC. The estimate sits at 54.6 against a previous reading of 54.5. The release lands during the London and New York overlap, with London scheduled to close at 16:00 UTC shortly after the data crosses.

Ahead of the release, FXEmpire flagged gold as still too expensive to chase lower, FX Street described the metal finding relief as oil prices eased while markets awaited today's US data, and a separate FX Street report cited ING pointing to a Fitch-related headwind capping the euro's rebound against the dollar.

Where EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and the Nasdaq 100 Stand

EUR/USD is at 1.12148, up 0.50% on the day, sitting between R1 at 1.12035 and R2 at 1.1248. The nearest resistance is the 5-day high at 1.12259, 11.1 pips away, while the nearest support is the previous day high at 1.12141, just 0.7 pips below. Today's range has already covered 150% of the 14-day ATR of 62.3 pips. Across the last 11 releases of this report, EUR/USD's typical move an hour later was 10.5 pips; when the actual came in above estimate (5 cases) the pair closed higher an hour later twice and lower three times, and when it came in below estimate (6 cases) it closed higher twice and lower three times. A move of that typical size would reach 1.12253 on the upside or 1.12043 on the downside, a stretch that would take in the previous day high at 1.12141.

USD/JPY trades at 157.863, up 0.21% on the day, positioned between the daily pivot at 157.451 and R1 at 157.96. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 157.875, just 1.2 pips away, with the daily pivot acting as support 41.2 pips below. The day's range sits at 63% of the 91.4-pip ATR. Over the same 11 releases, USD/JPY's typical move an hour afterward was 12.9 pips; above-estimate results (5 cases) preceded a higher close three times and a lower close twice, while below-estimate results (6 cases) split three higher and three lower. A typical-sized move would reach 157.992 on the upside, a distance that takes in both the previous day high at 157.875 and R1 at 157.96, or 157.734 on the downside.

Gold (XAU/USD) is at 3902.91, up 0.68% on the day, between S1 at 3822.39 and the daily pivot at 3924.32. The daily pivot is the nearest resistance, 21.41 dollars away, while the previous day low at 3870.03 is the nearest support, 32.88 dollars below. The day's range covers 54% of the 78.12 ATR. Across the same 11 releases, gold's typical hourly move was $7.50; above-estimate prints (5 cases) were followed by a higher close three times and a lower close twice, and below-estimate prints (6 cases) split three higher and three lower. A typical-sized move from here would reach 3910.41 on the upside or 3895.41 on the downside, with no pivot levels inside either distance. For a broader look at the metal's setup, see ForexR's Gold (XAU/USD) analysis.

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is at 28571.2, up 0.67% on the day, between the daily pivot at 28498 and R1 at 28907.9. R1 is the nearest resistance, 336.7 points away, with the daily pivot as the nearest support 73.2 points below. The day's range is 42% of the 573.28-point ATR. Over the same 11 releases, the index's typical hourly move was 92.9 points; above-estimate results (5 cases) were followed by a higher close in all five instances, while below-estimate results (6 cases) split three higher and three lower. A typical-sized move would reach 28664.1 on the upside, or 28478.3 on the downside, a distance that takes in the daily pivot at 28498. All of the figures above describe how each market behaved after previous releases; none of it is a forecast for today's print. For a longer record of past prints and moves, see the ISM Manufacturing PMI calendar page.

Level Maps: Upside and Downside Paths

EUR/USD: a break above R2 at 1.1248 would open the way to R3 at 1.12818, a path invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11697. On the other side, a slide below S1 at 1.11252 would point toward S2 at 1.10914, invalidated by a recovery back above that same daily pivot.

USD/JPY: clearing R1 at 157.96 would open the way toward R2 at 158.384, a view that fails on a drop back under the daily pivot at 157.451. A break under S1 at 157.027 would instead target S2 at 156.518, invalidated by a bounce back above the pivot.

Gold: pushing through R1 at 3978.60 would set up a run at R2 at 4080.53, with a return below the daily pivot at 3924.32 negating that path. A breakdown through S1 at 3822.39 would instead point to S2 at 3768.11, invalidated by a recovery back above the pivot.

Nasdaq 100: a move above R1 at 28907.9 would open the door to R2 at 29433.3, invalidated by a fallback under the daily pivot at 28498. A break below S1 at 27972.6 would instead aim for S2 at 27562.7, with a reclaim of the pivot invalidating that case. Readers mapping these levels can cross-check them with the pivot point calculator.

Positioning and Yields Heading In

As of the week to October 27, CFTC data show speculators net short EUR/USD, with additions to that net short during the week; net short USD/JPY, also added to; net long Gold (XAU/USD), trimmed over the week; and net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), also trimmed. US Treasury yields, at their October 30 close, had the 2-year at 4.56%, down 5 basis points, the 10-year at 4.94%, down 4 basis points, the 3-month at 4.16%, and the 2s10s curve at 38 basis points.

Also on the Calendar

Tomorrow brings a cluster of Reserve Bank of Australia releases at 03:30 UTC — the interest rate decision (estimate 4.85% versus a previous 4.6%), the rate statement and the monetary policy statement — followed by the RBA press conference at 04:30 UTC. The US midterm elections fall tomorrow as well, at 05:00 UTC, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is due to speak tomorrow at 16:00 UTC.

Bottom Line

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is due today at 15:00 UTC against an estimate of 54.6. Heading in, EUR/USD sits closest to the previous day high at 1.12141, USD/JPY to the previous day high at 157.875, gold to the daily pivot at 3924.32, and the Nasdaq 100 to the daily pivot at 28498.