USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: Technical Setups and Past Reactions

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 2, 2026, 05:17 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI arrives at 15:00 UTC today with consensus pointing to a 54.6 reading. In the Asia session, major instruments consolidate near pivot levels as markets prepare for the top-tier release.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: US ISM Manufacturing PMI calendar page.

Trading in the Asia session places EUR/USD between the daily pivot at 1.11697 and R1 at 1.12035, with London opening next at 07:00 UTC. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release today at 15:00 UTC, carrying an estimate of 54.6 following a previous print of 54.5. News coverage from FX Street and Action Forex highlights EUR/USD consolidation amid a broader bearish tone, while commodity markets track a modest recovery in gold alongside US election developments. Market focus also includes Australian dollar pairs as they hold key technical levels ahead of upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia announcements.

Instrument Snapshot Ahead of the Release

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD sits between the daily pivot at 1.11697 and R1 at 1.12035, with the day high at 1.11758 and the day low at 1.11428 covering 53 percent of its ATR14 at 62.3 pips. The nearest support is the daily pivot, sitting 5.9 pips away, while the nearest resistance is R1. In the last 11 releases of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the typical move an hour after the event was 10.5 pips. Among the 5 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later 2 times and lower 3 times. For the 6 releases below the estimate, it closed higher 2 times and lower 3 times. A move of the typical 1h size from the current price reaches up to 1.11861 or down to 1.11651, passing the daily pivot on the downside. This is past behaviour, not a forecast of this release.

USD/JPY Analysis

USD/JPY is positioned between the daily pivot at 157.451 and R1 at 157.96. The day high at 157.971 and the day low at 157.4 represent a range of 62 percent of the ATR14 at 91.4 pips. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 157.875, resting 5.5 pips away. Across the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 12.9 pips. In the 5 cases above the estimate, USD/JPY closed higher an hour later 3 times and lower 2 times. The 6 below-estimate cases saw 3 higher closes and 3 lower closes. A typical move from here extends up to 157.949, crossing the previous day high, or down to 157.691. USD/JPY analysis often details these historical hourly ranges around top-tier events.

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Gold trades between S1 at 3822.39 and the daily pivot at 3924.32, with the day high at 3914.84 and the day low at 3877.25 utilizing 48 percent of its ATR14 at 78.12 dollars. The daily pivot acts as the nearest resistance at a distance of 21.73 dollars. Looking at the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 7.5 dollars. Out of 5 above-estimate results, the metal closed higher an hour later 3 times and lower 2 times. The 6 results below the estimate brought 3 higher closes and 3 lower closes. From the current price, a move of the typical size points up to 3910.09 and down to 3895.09, landing short of the nearest technical levels.

Nasdaq 100 (US100) Analysis

Nasdaq 100 holds between the daily pivot at 28498 and R1 at 28907.9, showing a day high at 28676.9 and a day low at 28454.8 that cover 39 percent of the ATR14 at 573.3 points. The nearest support is the daily pivot, 159.7 points below the current price. During the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 92.9 points. In all 5 releases that exceeded the estimate, the index closed higher an hour later. The 6 releases below the estimate resulted in 3 higher closes and 3 lower closes. A move of that typical size would stretch to 28750.6 on the upside and 28564.8 on the downside.

Technical Scenarios

A break above R1 at 1.12035 would open the way to R2 at 1.1248 for EUR/USD; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11697 would invalidate it. Conversely, a break below S1 at 1.11252 would target S2 at 1.10914, provided the daily pivot is not crossed back above. For USD/JPY, rising through R1 at 157.96 opens the path to R2 at 158.384, with invalidation at the daily pivot at 157.451. On the downside, dropping past S1 at 157.027 sets a target of S2 at 156.518, invalidated by a return above the daily pivot.

In Gold, a break above R1 at 3978.6 targets R2 at 4080.53, while a break below S1 at 3822.39 opens the way to S2 at 3768.11; both views are invalidated by a move across the daily pivot at 3924.32. Nasdaq 100 requires a break above R1 at 28907.9 to target R2 at 29433.3, or a break below S1 at 27972.6 to target S2 at 27562.7, with either scenario invalidated by the daily pivot at 28498.

Positioning and Yield Context

Data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the week to October 27 shows speculators added to net short EUR/USD and added to net short USD/JPY positions. Meanwhile, speculators reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) and reduced net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) positions. In the bond market, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 30 provided a wider backdrop, featuring the 2-year yield at 4.56%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.94%, down 4 basis points. Understanding how yields frame the market remains central to gauging structural trends.

Other Calendar Events

The economic calendar features German Retail Sales (YoY) for the euro today at 07:00 UTC. Tomorrow brings a cluster of events for the Australian dollar: the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, and Interest Rate Decision all land at 03:30 UTC, followed by the RBA Press Conference at 04:30 UTC. The US Midterm Elections also take place tomorrow at 05:00 UTC, and the Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem speaks at 16:00 UTC.

Bottom Line

Today's central event is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, where markets look toward the 54.6 estimate. Ahead of the data, the level nearest to price is the daily pivot at 1.11697 for EUR/USD, the previous day high at 157.875 for USD/JPY, the daily pivot at 3924.32 for Gold, and the daily pivot at 28498 for Nasdaq 100.