USD Core PCE Preview: Past Moves and Technical Levels

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 29, 2026, 02:34 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

US Core PCE and GDP releases print today at 12:30 UTC. Across the major pairs and indices, recent history shows typical one-hour moves ranging from 13.7 pips on EUR/USD to 68.6 points on the Nasdaq 100 following the data.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: US Core PCE Price Index calendar page.

Focus on US Core PCE and GDP Data

During the Asia session, ahead of the London open at 07:00 UTC, media coverage revolves around the Federal Reserve's rate path and the approaching US inflation data, as well as impending policy decisions from the ECB and BoJ, as reported by FX Street and Forexcom. Today at 12:30 UTC, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) prints with an estimate of 0.3%, up from a previous 0.2%, alongside the YoY metric estimated at 3.1%. In the same slot, Gross Domestic Product Annualized holds an estimate of 3.2%, and the GDP Price Index is expected at 3.5%.

Instrument Positions and Past Behaviour

EUR/USD trades at 1.11527, between the daily pivot at 1.11443 and R1 at 1.11763, with today's range absorbing 45% of the average true range. The nearest support is the daily pivot 8.4 pips away, while resistance sits at the previous day high of 1.11685 at a distance of 15.8 pips. Over the last 11 releases of this event, the typical move an hour later was 13.7 pips. In the 1 case the release came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later; across the 3 cases it printed below the estimate, the pair also closed higher 3 times. A move of 13.7 pips upward from the current price reaches 1.11664 with no levels inside that distance, while a downward move of that size reaches 1.1139, crossing the daily pivot at 1.11443. Note that this is past behaviour, not a forecast of today's release.

USD/JPY sits at 157.659, positioned between S1 at 157.52 and the daily pivot at 157.922, consuming 49% of its ATR on the day. Support lies close at the previous day low of 157.633, 2.6 pips below price, and resistance is overhead at the daily pivot of 157.922. The median one-hour move across the last 11 releases was 19 pips. The single above-estimate release saw USD/JPY close higher after an hour, whereas the 3 below-estimate prints all led to lower closes. A 19-pip shift up from here extends to 157.849, crossing no levels, while a corresponding move down hits 157.469, breaking the previous day low at 157.633 and S1 at 157.52.

Gold (XAU/USD) is at 4043.85, moving between S1 at 4033.75 and the daily pivot at 4058.17, with a daily range equal to 45% of its ATR. The nearest support is S1 at 4033.75, and resistance is the daily pivot at 4058.17. Evaluating the past 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 19.37 dollars. The lone above-estimate result preceded a higher hourly close; the 3 below-estimate results yielded 2 higher closes and 1 lower close. A move of 19.37 dollars higher would reach 4063.22, clearing the daily pivot at 4058.17, while a decline of that size reaches 4024.48, passing S1 at 4033.75 and the previous day low at 4024.64.

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) stands at 29356.7, between S2 at 29200 and S1 at 29382.4, having traded 54% of its ATR today. Nearest resistance is S1 at 29382.4, with support at S2 at 29200. Over the previous 11 releases, the typical one-hour move registered at 68.6 points. The single reading above the estimate and all 3 below the estimate were followed by higher hourly closes. An upward push of 68.6 points lands at 29425.3, crossing S1 at 29382.4, while a drop of that size brings the index to 29288.1, clear of any immediate levels.

Technical Scenarios and Market Context

For EUR/USD, an upside breach of R1 at 1.11763 would open the way to R2 at 1.12006; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11443 would invalidate this view. Conversely, dropping below S1 at 1.112 exposes S2 at 1.1088, a path invalidated by a move back above the daily pivot at 1.11443.

On USD/JPY, clearing R1 at 158.211 opens the way to R2 at 158.613, assuming price does not fall back below the daily pivot at 157.922. On the downside, a break below S1 at 157.52 targets S2 at 157.231, which is invalidated if price moves back above the daily pivot at 157.922.

For Gold (XAU/USD), a push above R1 at 4091.69 sets up a move toward R2 at 4116.11, while a drop back below the daily pivot at 4058.17 would negate it. A bearish break under S1 at 4033.75 sets S2 at 4000.23 as the target, with invalidation placed above the daily pivot at 4058.17.

On the Nasdaq 100 (US100), overcoming R1 at 29884.1 would open the way to R2 at 30203.4; slipping back beneath the daily pivot at 29701.7 renders that invalid. A slide past S2 at 29200 opens the path to S3 at 28880.7, invalidated by a cross back over the daily pivot at 29701.7.

As of the week to October 20, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD and added to net short USD/JPY. In other markets, they reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) and added to net long Nasdaq 100 (US100). On October 28, US Treasury yields closed with the 2-year yield at 4.67%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.05%, up 6 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 38 basis points.

Additional Calendar Events

Looking at the economic calendar, today's docket also features the ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Rate On Deposit Facility, and Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 13:15 UTC, followed by the ECB Press Conference at 13:45 UTC. Later, Tokyo Consumer Price Index figures print at 23:30 UTC. Tomorrow, the BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision follow at 03:00 UTC, with the BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 UTC, and German Gross Domestic Product at 09:00 UTC.

The US Core PCE MoM release prints today at 12:30 UTC with an estimate of 0.3%. Going into the data, the nearest level to price is the daily pivot for EUR/USD, the previous day low for USD/JPY, S1 for Gold, and S1 for the Nasdaq 100.