USD/CAD forecast today: Pausing at 1.40266 before Fed
Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst
USD/CAD trades quietly near 1.40266 during the Asia session with mixed daily trend signals. Traders are watching the daily pivot at 1.40164 ahead of multiple Federal Reserve speeches.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 1.41147 | S1 | 1.39947 |
| R2 | 1.40764 | S2 | 1.39564 |
| R1 | 1.40547 | S3 | 1.39347 |
| Previous day high | 1.40380 | Previous day low | 1.39780 |
| 20-day high | 1.40380 | 20-day low | 1.37588 |
| Daily pivot 1.40164. Data as of 2026-09-22 05:46 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
Where USD/CAD Stands Now
USD/CAD is trading at 1.40266 during the Asia session, down 0.00065 on the day. Today's intraday action spans a high of 1.40425 and a low of 1.40234. This 19.1-pip range accounts for just 33% of the 58-pip 14-day average true range, reflecting a quiet start to the trading day.
Trend and Momentum
The timeframes currently send conflicting signals, warranting a neutral view. The daily trend is mixed, though price remains positioned above the 200-period exponential moving average of 1.38854. Shorter-term momentum points higher, with both the four-hour and one-hour charts in an uptrend. The daily RSI reads 64.6, keeping the pair below overbought territory.
Levels That Matter
The nearest support rests 10.2 pips below the current price at the daily pivot of 1.40164. Resistance sits 11.4 pips away at the previous day high of 1.4038, a ceiling that also marks the 5-day and 20-day high. On the downside, the previous day low is located at 1.3978. Broad round numbers frame this structure, with 1.4050 above and 1.4000 below. The pivot point structure places R1 at 1.40547 and R2 at 1.40764, with S1 at 1.39947 and S2 at 1.39564.
Scenario Analysis
A break above the R1 resistance at 1.40547 would serve as a bullish trigger, opening the way toward the R2 target at 1.40764. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.40164 would invalidate this upward view. If sellers step in, a drop below the S1 support at 1.39947 triggers the bearish scenario, targeting S2 at 1.39564. This downside case requires price to stay below the daily pivot at 1.40164.
What Could Move It Today
Today's scheduled catalysts begin with the US ADP Employment Change 4-week average at 12:15 UTC, checking against a previous print of 16.25. Later, the market will monitor a trio of Federal Reserve speeches, featuring Williams at 14:05 UTC, Jefferson at 14:20 UTC, and Barkin at 17:00 UTC. Headline themes, as reported by Forexcom and FX Street, focus on buyer momentum maintaining levels above the 1.4000 threshold. The news sentiment registers at 79% bullish with a media mood score of 100.
In the futures market, CFTC data as of the week to September 15 shows large speculators reduced net long USD/CAD exposure. For broader context, US Treasury yields at the September 21 close placed the 2-year yield at 4.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.96%.
Bottom Line
USD/CAD is consolidating within a narrow band just below its 20-day high. The conflicting technical trends suggest waiting for a clear reaction at the daily pivot of 1.40164. The afternoon lineup of Federal Reserve speakers provides the next set of scheduled catalysts for the US dollar.
FAQ
Is USD/CAD likely to stay above 1.4000 today?
The nearest support sits just above that mark at the daily pivot of 1.40164, followed by the S1 pivot at 1.39947. Price action on the four-hour and one-hour charts points up, though the broader daily trend remains mixed.
How will the Federal Reserve speeches impact the USD/CAD exchange rate?
Federal Reserve officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin are scheduled to speak between 14:05 UTC and 17:00 UTC today. Their commentary can influence US dollar demand by shaping expectations around future interest rate policy.
What are the main technical support levels for the Canadian Dollar right now?
The closest support for USD/CAD is the daily pivot at 1.40164. Below that, key downside levels include the S1 pivot at 1.39947 and the previous day low at 1.3978.