USD/CAD Forecast Today: Pair Drops Below 1.4000 Ahead of US ISM

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 07:38 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD sits lower on the day, caught between conflicting daily and intraday trends. The market awaits US ADP and ISM Services data for the next potential catalyst.

USD/CAD Position and Volatility in the London Session

During the London session, USD/CAD trades at 1.39593, down 0.35% on the day. Price action has charted a day high at 1.40132 and a day low at 1.39557. This creates a daily range of 57.5 pips, accounting for 97% of the 14-day ATR of 59.4 pips. The pair currently sits between S2 at 1.39278 and S1 at 1.3968 on the daily pivot matrix.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

Momentum indicators present a fragmented picture across the primary timeframes, establishing a neutral bias. The daily chart exhibits a mixed state, though price remains above the 200-period EMA at 1.39235. In contrast, both the H4 and H1 timeframes show a distinct down trend. On the daily chart, the RSI registers at 42.6, reflecting the lack of directional consensus between the daily and intraday horizons.

Support and Resistance Matrix

The nearest resistance level above current price action is S1 at 1.3968. The nearest support below rests at the previous day low of 1.39493. The daily pivot sits higher at 1.39895, with resistance levels at R1 (1.40297), R2 (1.40512), and R3 (1.40914). On the downside, support targets align at S2 (1.39278) and S3 (1.39063). Looking at psychological boundaries, round levels sit below at 1.395 and above at 1.40000.

Zooming out to recent trading history, yesterday's bar printed a high at 1.4011 and a low at 1.39493, closing at 1.40082. The 5-day window shows a high at 1.40675 and a low at 1.39408. Separately, the 20-day window records a high at 1.42989 and a low at 1.39408.

Trading Scenarios Around the Daily Pivot

In a bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 1.40297 would open the way to R2 at 1.40512. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.39895 would invalidate this view.

Conversely, in a bearish scenario, a break below S2 at 1.39278 would open the way to S3 at 1.39063. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.39895 would invalidate the downside case.

Risk Drivers and Economic Data Today

Media coverage notes falling Treasury yields and rebounding crude oil weighing on the pair, alongside chatter regarding the upcoming US midterm elections, according to FX Street and FXEmpire. The economic calendar focuses heavily on US releases as New York joins at 12:00 UTC. The US ADP Employment Change report is scheduled for 13:15 UTC, with an estimate of 69 against a previous print of 90. At 14:45 UTC, the S&P Global Composite PMI arrives, followed at 15:00 UTC by the ISM Services PMI, estimated at 54.8 from a prior 54.9. The 15:00 UTC slot also features the ISM Services New Orders, Prices Paid, and Employment indices.

Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to October 27 shows large speculators were net long USD/CAD, though they reduced net long USD/CAD positioning compared to the prior week. For context, US Treasury yields at the daily close on November 3 placed the 2-year yield at 4.61%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.95%, up 4 basis points.

News sentiment metrics show media volume running at 255% of the 90-day average. The independent opportunity read on the pair stands at a neutral 5.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD navigates the session with conflicting technical signals between the daily and intraday charts. The pair holds beneath the daily pivot at 1.39895 and faces immediate resistance at S1 (1.3968). The impending US employment and services data releases stand as the next catalysts on the docket.