USD/CAD Forecast Today: Price Pinned Between Pivot and S1

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 3, 2026, 07:07 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD trades at 1.39692, down 0.11% on the day, boxed between S1 at 1.39582 and the daily pivot at 1.3976 ahead of US JOLTS data and BoC Governor Macklem's speech.

USD/CAD Holds Below the Pivot in the London Session

USD/CAD trades at 1.39692, down 0.00155 on the day, or 0.11%, from the previous close at 1.39847. Today's range has run from a day low of 1.39666 to a day high of 1.39956, after an open at 1.39824. That 29-pip range has used 49% of the 14-day average true range of 59.2 pips, with New York still to join the session at 12:00 UTC.

Trend and Momentum: Timeframes Don't Agree

The daily trend reads mixed. Price sits above the 200-day EMA at 1.39229, but below the 20-day EMA at 1.40613 and the 50-day EMA at 1.40528. The four-hour chart trends down, with price below its 20-period EMA at 1.39812 and 50-period EMA at 1.40091, and the one-hour chart also trends down, its 20-period EMA at 1.39776 sitting just below the 50-period EMA at 1.39781. Daily RSI reads 38.9, on the soft side of neutral. Performance confirms the softer multi-day tone, with USD/CAD down 0.3% over the past 5 days and down 2.02% over the past 20 days. With the daily trend undecided while the four-hour and one-hour charts both point lower, the technical picture does not line up across timeframes today.

Levels That Matter

Price sits between S1 at 1.39582 and the daily pivot at 1.3976, the nearest support and resistance, 11 pips and 6.8 pips away respectively. Above the pivot, R1 stands at 1.40026, R2 at 1.40204 and R3 at 1.4047; below S1, S2 sits at 1.39316 and S3 at 1.39138, all plotted through the pivot point calculator. Yesterday's bar, dated November 2, ran from a high of 1.39939 to a low of 1.39495. The 5-day range spans a high of 1.40675 and a low of 1.39408, while the wider 20-day range spans a high of 1.42989 and the same low of 1.39408. The round number at 1.4 sits just above current price, with 1.395 sitting just below it.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A break above R1 at 1.40026 would open the way to R2 at 1.40204; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.3976 would invalidate that view. On the other side, a break below S1 at 1.39582 would open the way to S2 at 1.39316; a move back above the daily pivot at 1.3976 would invalidate that read. Both paths share the same invalidation level, with the broader setup tracked in ForexR's USD/CAD analysis.

What Could Move USD/CAD Today

Two US releases land at 15:00 UTC: Factory Orders (MoM), previous 0.1% against an estimate of 1.2%, and JOLTS Job Openings, previous 7.079 million against an estimate of 7.13 million. BoC Governor Macklem is scheduled to speak at 16:00 UTC, a high-impact event with no previous reading or estimate attached. All three land after New York joins the session at 12:00 UTC.

Newsflow around the pair leans on oil and political uncertainty: FX Street tied Canadian dollar firmness to a rebound in crude prices, FXEmpire described broader US dollar softness against a reported drop in oil, and Forex.com linked dollar weakness to uncertainty around the US midterm elections while noting USD/CAD held above support.

In the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to October 27, 2026, large speculators were net long USD/CAD, though the weekly shift showed speculators reduced that net long USD/CAD position. US Treasury yields at the November 2 close put the 2-year yield at 4.59%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.91%, down 3 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 32 basis points; both are context, not a cause of today's move.

News coverage of USD/CAD ran at 111% of its 90-day average volume, and the opportunity read stood at -49, a bearish score that had swung from 48 (bullish) to -6 (neutral) within the prior 24 hours. That reading describes the tone and churn of coverage, not trader positioning or a forecast.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD sits just below the daily pivot at 1.3976, down 0.11% on the day, with the daily trend undecided even as the four-hour and one-hour charts point lower. A break of S1 at 1.39582 opens the way toward S2 at 1.39316, while reclaiming R1 at 1.40026 would shift focus back to R2 at 1.40204, with Factory Orders, JOLTS data and Macklem's speech all landing after New York joins the overlap at 12:00 UTC.