EUR/USD Forecast Today: Pair Holds Near 1.124 Highs Before US Data

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 15, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades near 1.121, up 0.5% on the day and holding above the previous day high as a heavy slate of US data, including Retail Sales and PPI, lands at 12:30 UTC.

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.12 Early in the Asia Session

EUR/USD trades at 1.12114 (bid 1.12114 / ask 1.12131, a 1.7-pip spread), up 0.5% from the previous close of 1.11558. The pair opened the day at 1.11545 and has ranged between a day low of 1.1147 and a day high of 1.12402, a 93.2-pip swing that already equals 146% of the 14-day ATR of 63.7 pips. It is 06:01 UTC and the Asia session is underway, with London opening next at 07:00 UTC.

Price sits between the R1 pivot at 1.12069 and R2 at 1.12581. The nearest resistance is the 5-day high at 1.12421, 30.7 pips above current levels, while the nearest support is the previous day high at 1.12108, just 0.6 pips below, a level the pair has now moved above. For a live read on where price sits against these pivots, see the EUR/USD rate and chart.

Daily, H4 and H1 Trends Disagree

The daily chart remains in a downtrend: price sits below the 20-day EMA at 1.12961, the 50-day EMA at 1.14084 and the 200-day EMA at 1.15607, and the 14-day RSI reads 27.3, in oversold territory. The four-hour trend is mixed, with price straddling the H4 20-EMA at 1.11912 and 50-EMA at 1.12137. The one-hour trend has turned up, with price above both the H1 20-EMA at 1.11904 and 50-EMA at 1.11849.

With the daily trend pointed down, the H4 reading mixed and the H1 trend higher, the timeframes do not agree, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than directional. The pair is up 0.14% over the past 5 days but down 2.2% over the past 20, a reminder that today's bounce sits inside a longer pullback. More EUR/USD coverage is tracked at ForexR's EUR/USD analysis page.

Pivots, Prior-Day and Range Levels

Below the daily pivot at 1.11597, support runs to S1 at 1.11085, S2 at 1.10613 and S3 at 1.10101. Above it, resistance runs from R1 at 1.12069, already cleared, through R2 at 1.12581 to R3 at 1.13053. For how these figures are built, see the pivot points guide or the pivot point calculator.

Yesterday's session (October 14) opened at 1.11968, ran between a low of 1.11124 and a high of 1.12108, and closed at 1.11558, a range of 98.4 pips. The 5-day range spans a low of 1.11124 to a high of 1.12421, while the wider 20-day range spans the same low of 1.11124 up to a high of 1.14971. The round number at 1.12 sits just below current price, with the next round figure at 1.125 above.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A push through R2 at 1.12581 would open the way toward R3 at 1.13053; that view would be invalidated by a slide back under the daily pivot at 1.11597.

On the downside, a slip below S1 at 1.11085 would expose S2 at 1.10613, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.11597 would turn that bearish case off.

What's on the Calendar Today

Euro-area data comes first: French CPI (EU norm, year-on-year) lands at 06:45 UTC, with both the previous and estimate at 3.4%. EMU industrial production (month-on-month) follows at 09:00 UTC, with the prior reading at -0.1%. The German Bundesbank's monthly report is due at 10:00 UTC.

The heavier load arrives from the US at 12:30 UTC: retail sales (previous 1.2%, estimate 0.3%), retail sales ex autos (previous 1.4%, estimate 0.5%) and the retail sales control group (previous 1.4%) land alongside producer prices, with PPI month-on-month at a previous 0.4% and estimate 0.5%, PPI year-on-year at a previous 5.4% and estimate 5.3%, and the core readings ex food and energy at a previous 0.2% and estimate 0.3% month-on-month, and previous 4.6% and estimate 4.4% year-on-year. The same hour brings initial jobless claims (previous 197, estimate 200), the NY Empire State manufacturing index (previous 7.6, estimate 10.3) and the Philadelphia Fed survey (previous 37.8, estimate 28.4). The Monthly Budget Statement follows at 18:00 UTC (previous -166.8, estimate -29). A guide to navigating a data-heavy session like this is available at the economic calendar guide.

Newsflow over the past day centered on a hotter domestic inflation reading that may have supported the dollar and weighed on the euro, a theme picked up across FX Street, FXEmpire, Forex.com, ExchangeRates and Orbex.

CFTC data for the week to October 6 showed large speculators 41.5% long and 58.5% short EUR futures, a net short EUR/USD position that speculators added to versus the prior week. US Treasury yields at the October 14 close stood at 4.82% on the 2-year (up 3 basis points) and 5.19% on the 10-year (down 2 basis points), with the 2s10s curve at 37 basis points.

News sentiment coverage volume is running at 146% of its 90-day average. The opportunity read, a separate score, sits at a neutral 10 after swinging from 71 (bullish) to -8 (neutral) within 24 hours.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is trading higher on the day and sitting between the R1 and R2 pivots, but the daily downtrend, mixed H4 picture and firmer H1 trend leave the near-term bias neutral rather than clearly directional. The 5-day high at 1.12421 and the daily pivot at 1.11597 frame the range to watch as a dense US data slate, including retail sales and producer prices, lands at 12:30 UTC. Those weighing the scenarios above can size and plan entries with the risk/reward calculator.