EUR/USD Forecast Today: Focus Shifts to PMIs and Key Supports

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 23, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades lower at 1.14252 during the Asia session, hovering near S1 support at 1.14237 ahead of high-impact Eurozone and US Flash PMI data.

Euro Slumps Toward Pivot Supports in Asia Trading

During the Asia session, the live EUR/USD rate is trading at 1.14252, representing a decline of -0.18% on the day with a change of -0.00204. The currency pair has established a daily trading range between a high of 1.14505 and a low of 1.14227. This intraday movement spans 27.8 pips, which represents approximately 59% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR) of 0.00472. This indicates that while volatility is currently moderate, the pair remains constrained within yesterday's broader 48.9-pip range as market participants look ahead to upcoming catalysts.

Trend Alignment and Momentum Remain Bearish

The technical outlook is heavily weighted to the downside, with daily, four-hour (H4), and hourly (H1) timeframes showing strong alignment. On the daily chart, the pair remains well below its major moving averages, with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sitting at 1.16012, the 50-day EMA at 1.15477, and the 20-day EMA at 1.15428. The daily trend state is firmly down, matching the bearish bias seen on the H4 timeframe where the 20-period EMA is at 1.14606 and the 50-period EMA rests at 1.14991.

Shorter-term momentum on the H1 timeframe is also down, with the 20-period EMA at 1.14405 and the 50-period EMA at 1.14539. This broad agreement across multiple timeframes underscores a solid bearish trend. Meanwhile, the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 32.4, reflecting persistent downward pressure without entering extreme oversold territory.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders evaluating the all ForexR analysis for EUR/USD should monitor several critical support and resistance lines. The nearest resistance sits just 3.5 pips away at the previous day low of 1.14287, followed closely by the round level above at 1.14500 and the daily pivot point P at 1.14506. On the downside, the nearest immediate support is the S1 pivot level at 1.14237, positioned only 1.5 pips below the current bid.

For a broader perspective on key barriers, our pivot points guide details how these mathematical levels help identify structural inflection points. Above the daily pivot point of 1.14506, the first major resistance is R1 at 1.14726, followed by the previous day high of 1.14776, and then R2 at 1.14995. The 5-day high is located at 1.15559, while the 20-day high is situated further up at 1.16763. Conversely, if sellers push below S1, the next target is the S2 pivot level at 1.14017, which aligns closely with the major psychological round level below at 1.14000, ahead of the S3 pivot at 1.13748. Notably, the 5-day low of 1.14287 and the 20-day low of 1.14287 both sit at the exact same level, emphasizing the importance of this horizontal zone.

Trading Scenarios for the Session

Depending on today's fundamental drivers, two distinct technical scenarios could unfold. The bullish pathway requires a sustained break above R1 at 1.14726, which would open the door for a potential move toward R2 at 1.14995. This scenario would be invalidated if the price drops back below the daily pivot of 1.14506.

The bearish pathway, which aligns with the prevailing multi-timeframe trend, would be triggered by a decisive drop below the S1 support level at 1.14237. A clean break here could clear the way for a test of the S2 pivot level at 1.14017. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.14506 would invalidate this bearish outlook.

Economic Catalysts and News Sentiment

A heavy slate of high-impact macroeconomic data is scheduled to release today. The European session begins with a speech from the ECB's Vujčić at 07:00 UTC, followed by the French HCOB Manufacturing PMI at 07:15 UTC, estimated at 50.9, and the French HCOB Services PMI, estimated at 48.5. Germany's key HCOB Manufacturing PMI is due at 07:30 UTC, with a forecast of 54.5, alongside Germany's Services PMI, projected at 50. Shortly after, at 08:00 UTC, the Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI is scheduled (estimate 52.7), along with the Eurozone Services PMI (estimate 51.7) and Composite PMI (estimate 51.5).

During the US session, attention shifts to the US S&P Global Services PMI at 13:45 UTC, with an estimate of 56, and the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, forecast at 53.5, preceding a speech by the Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC. Recent headlines from FX Street, Forexcom, and FXEmpire highlight that the US dollar's persistent strength and shifting expectations regarding inflation risks and Federal Reserve policy continue to exert downward pressure on the Euro.

In the futures market, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to September 15, 2026, shows that large speculators maintain a net short EUR/USD position of -26,993 contracts, although they reduced their net short exposure from -42,616 contracts the previous week. Contextual market pricing at the close on September 22, 2026, saw the US 2-year Treasury yield finish at 4.71%, down 5 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed unchanged at 4.96%. Additionally, independent news sentiment data reveals a media mood score of 75 out of 100 with a 63% bullish tone, yet the short-term opportunity read has moved to a bearish score of -28.

Bottom Line

As we navigate the Asia session and head into European trading, EUR/USD remains locked in a clear downtrend with multi-timeframe alignment pointing lower. A key immediate hurdle rests at the S1 support level of 1.14237, which traders can monitor closely for signs of a breakdown toward 1.14017. Conversely, any rebound must reclaim the daily pivot of 1.14506 to ease the immediate selling pressure and keep the near-term bias neutral.