What does it mean for AUD/USD to coil ahead of US CPI?

It refers to AUD/USD trading in a tight band, with today's range of 30.1 pips covering 68% of the 14-day ATR of 44.3 pips, between R1 at 0.69959 and R2 at 0.70111 as traders wait for the 12:30 UTC CPI release.

How could today's CPI data affect the AUD/USD outlook?

The CPI report at 12:30 UTC carries a year-on-year estimate of 3.6% against a previous 3.4%, a month-on-month estimate of 0.6% against a previous 0.4%, and core readings estimated at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year; price could test R2 at 0.70111 or the daily pivot at 0.69704 and S1 at 0.69552 depending on the reaction, though no specific outcome can be assumed in advance.

What are the key technical levels to watch for AUD/USD today?

Nearest to current price are R1 at 0.69959 (support) and R2 at 0.70111 (resistance), with the daily pivot at 0.69704, R3 at 0.70366 and S1 at 0.69552 also in play alongside the 5-day range of 0.69318 to 0.69941 and the 20-day range of 0.69029 to 0.71393.

How might tomorrow's Australian employment data affect the pair?

Australia's Employment Change at 00:30 UTC on October 15 is estimated at 20 against a previous 39.5, alongside an Unemployment Rate estimate of 4.6% matching the prior reading and a Participation Rate estimate of 67% versus 67.1% previously; these are scheduled releases rather than signals of a particular AUD/USD outcome.

AUD/USD Forecast Today: Coiled Near 0.70 Ahead of US CPI

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 14, 2026, 07:10 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades between R1 at 0.69959 and R2 at 0.70111, with the daily trend down but H4 and H1 trends up, keeping the bias neutral into today's 12:30 UTC US CPI release.

Man working on two laptops stock market trading investments top view

Price0.70013

Day change+0.30%

Day range0.69722 - 0.70023

ATR (14)0.00443

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	0.70366	S1	0.69552
R2	0.70111	S2	0.69297
R1	0.69959	S3	0.69145
Previous day high	0.69857	Previous day low	0.69450
20-day high	0.71393	20-day low	0.69029
Daily pivot 0.69704. Data as of 2026-10-14 07:07 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 0.69704, R1 0.69959, R2 0.70111, S1 0.69552, S2 0.69297 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — AUD/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-14 07:07 UTC.

Where AUD/USD Stands Now

AUD/USD last changes hands at 0.70013, up 0.3% from the previous close at 0.69806, with the London session underway and New York set to join at 12:00 UTC. The day's range runs from a low of 0.69722 to a high of 0.70023, after an open at 0.69793, putting price just above the 0.70 round number.

That intraday range of 30.1 pips covers 68% of the 14-day ATR of 44.3 pips, as detailed in this guide to ATR and volatility, suggesting the pair has used up a large share of its typical daily movement even before the New York session and the US inflation data arrive.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The daily chart remains in a down state, with price sitting above the 200-period EMA at 0.69749 but below the 20-period EMA at 0.70092 and the 50-period EMA at 0.70467. Daily RSI14 reads 42, below the midpoint.

The shorter-term picture tells a different story: the H4 trend is up, with EMA20 at 0.69762 above EMA50 at 0.69757, and the H1 trend is also up, with EMA20 at 0.69876 above EMA50 at 0.69784. With the daily trend down and the H4 and H1 trends up, the timeframes disagree, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than leaning firmly either way.

Key Levels in Play

Price sits between the nearest support, R1 at 0.69959, 5.4 pips below, and the nearest resistance, R2 at 0.70111, 9.8 pips above. The full pivot set, built from yesterday's trade and available through the pivot point calculator, places the daily pivot at 0.69704, R3 at 0.70366, S1 at 0.69552, S2 at 0.69297 and S3 at 0.69145.

Yesterday's session (October 13) ran from an open at 0.69567 to a close at 0.69806, with a high of 0.69857 and a low of 0.6945 across a 40.7-pip range. Over the 5-day window, AUD/USD has ranged between a high of 0.69941 and a low of 0.69318, while the wider 20-day window shows a high of 0.71393 and a low of 0.69029. The nearest round numbers sit at 0.70 just below current price and 0.705 above it.

Breakout Scenarios for AUD/USD

On the upside, a break above R2 at 0.70111 would open the way toward R3 at 0.70366; a slide back under the daily pivot at 0.69704 would invalidate that path. On the downside, a break below S1 at 0.69552 would open the way toward S2 at 0.69297, a scenario called off by a recovery back above the same daily pivot at 0.69704.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The US calendar is front-loaded: a Fed's Bowman speech lands at 09:40 UTC, followed by the day's focal point at 12:30 UTC, when the Consumer Price Index is due. The year-on-year CPI carries a previous reading of 3.4% against an estimate of 3.6%, the month-on-month figure a previous of 0.4% against an estimate of 0.6%, core month-on-month a previous of 0.3% against an estimate of 0.2%, and core year-on-year a previous of 2.4% against an estimate of 2.5%. Bowman speaks again at 14:55 UTC, the Fed's Beige Book follows at 18:00 UTC, and the Monthly Budget Statement is also due at 18:00 UTC, with a previous reading of -166.8 against an estimate of -29. Readers tracking the full sequence can use this guide to using an economic calendar.

Tomorrow's docket shifts to Australia: an IMF Meeting opens at 00:00 UTC, and at 00:30 UTC the Employment Change figure carries a previous of 39.5 against an estimate of 20, the Unemployment Rate a previous of 4.6% against an estimate of 4.6%, the Participation Rate a previous of 67.1% against an estimate of 67%, alongside Full-Time Employment (previous -6.3) and Part-Time Employment (previous 45.8) releases with no estimate attached.

Newsflow is largely organized around positioning ahead of the US inflation report, as reported by Forex.com, while separate coverage from FX Street and ExchangeRates points to a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia stance, global bond market pressure and soft local business sentiment as themes keeping gains capped near the 0.70 handle.

CFTC data for the week to October 6, 2026, show large speculators net short AUD/USD, with 66.5% of speculative contracts positioned short against 33.5% long; the latest weekly shift shows speculators adding to that net short position. Separately, US Treasury yields at the October 13, 2026 close stood at 4.79% on the 2-year, down 1 basis point, and 5.21% on the 10-year, down 3 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 42 basis points, offered here only as background context.

News coverage volume around AUD/USD has run at 186% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read, a separate measure of trading opportunity rather than direction, stands at 73, a bullish reading reported to have swung from -66 to 72 within 24 hours.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is pinned between R1 at 0.69959 and R2 at 0.70111 with the daily trend down but the H4 and H1 trends up, a split that keeps today's setup neutral rather than directional. The 12:30 UTC CPI release is the clearest scheduled catalyst, with the pair's reaction likely to be framed against R2 at 0.70111 on the upside and the daily pivot at 0.69704 or S1 at 0.69552 on the downside. For position sizing around either path, the position size calculator can help frame exposure relative to these levels.