AUD/USD Forecast Today: Bearish Bias Holds Below 0.70

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 13, 2026, 07:48 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades just under the daily pivot at 0.69684, with daily and H4 trends pointing down and the 0.70 handle still capping recovery attempts.

Price Holds Below the Daily Pivot in London Trade

AUD/USD last trades at 0.6966, up 0.13% on the day after opening at 0.69567 and rebounding from the previous close at 0.69572. The session is currently in London hours, with New York set to join at 12:00 UTC. Today's range has run between the day low at 0.6945 and the day high at 0.69679, a span of 22.9 pips that covers 51% of the 14-day ATR of 44.5 pips, a contained move relative to typical volatility; the ATR indicator guide explains how that comparison is built.

Trend and Momentum: Daily and H4 Point Lower, H1 More Balanced

The daily trend is down, with price sitting below the 200-day EMA at 0.69738 and well under the 20-day EMA at 0.70122 and the 50-day EMA at 0.70494. The four-hour trend is also down, with price below its 20-period EMA at 0.69668 and 50-period EMA at 0.69727. The one-hour trend reads mixed, with EMAs at 0.69613 and 0.6965 sitting close together, and the daily RSI14 at 37 keeps momentum on the soft side without flagging an extreme. Daily and H4 line up to the downside while H1 shows a more balanced, range-bound picture.

Levels That Matter: Pivot, Prior Session, and the Wider Ranges

Price currently sits between S1 at 0.69428 and the daily pivot at 0.69684. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot, just 2.4 pips away, while the nearest support is the previous day low at 0.6954, 12 pips below the market. Above the pivot, R1 stands at 0.69829, R2 at 0.70085 and R3 at 0.7023; below S1, S2 sits at 0.69283 and S3 at 0.69027. The previous day's session (October 12) ranged between a high of 0.69941 and a low of 0.6954. Over the past five days the range runs from a high of 0.69941 down to a low of 0.69318, while the 20-day window is wider, from a high of 0.71401 to a low of 0.69029. The round number at 0.695 sits just below spot and 0.70 sits overhead; for a breakdown of how these pivot levels are derived, see the pivot point calculator.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R1 at 0.69829 would open the way toward R2 at 0.70085, a move that would be invalidated by a slide back below the daily pivot at 0.69684. On the downside, a break of S1 at 0.69428 would open the path to S2 at 0.69283, with that read invalidated by a recovery back above the same daily pivot at 0.69684. Either path can be sized against the risk and reward calculator, and the full AUD/USD analysis archive tracks how these levels evolve through the week.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The US calendar carries three medium-impact releases: the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC, where the previous reading was 23.75; Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) at 14:00 UTC, previous at -2; and the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, previous at -166.8 against an estimate of -28. Newsflow from FX Street, Forex.com and ExchangeRates has centered on a shared theme of pressure on the Aussie tied to US dollar strength, Australian rate expectations and bond-market jitters, with the 0.70 handle repeatedly cited as a cap on recovery attempts. In the CFTC data for the week to October 6, 2026, large speculators were net short AUD/USD, with 33.5% positioned long against 66.5% short, and speculators added to that net short AUD/USD position as net contracts moved from -63239 to -98588. US Treasury yields at the close of October 9, 2026 showed the 2-year yield at 4.80%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points. News coverage volume is running at 128% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read on the pair stands at -38, a bearish reading, though this measures news tone rather than trader positioning or a forecast.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD holds just under the daily pivot at 0.69684, with daily and H4 trends both pointing down and only the one-hour picture showing a more balanced tone. Nearby support sits at the previous day low of 0.6954 and S1 at 0.69428, while resistance builds through the pivot, R1 at 0.69829 and the 0.70 round number toward R2 at 0.70085. Tomorrow's session brings a heavier US calendar, including the Consumer Price Index readings at 12:30 UTC, which will sit alongside today's medium-impact releases in shaping how price behaves around these levels; the economic calendar guide covers how to track scheduled releases like these.