AUD/USD Forecast Today: Pinned Under 0.70 Before FOMC Minutes

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 7, 2026, 06:51 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD is consolidating between S1 and the daily pivot in the Asia session, with daily, H4 and H1 trends disagreeing ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

AUD/USD Holds Below 0.70 in the Asia Session

AUD/USD trades at 0.69682 during the Asia session, down 0.17% on the day against the previous close at 0.69801. The pair opened at 0.69780, and the session has moved between a day high of 0.69833 and a day low of 0.69654, a range of 17.9 pips that covers 39% of the 14-day ATR of 45.9 pips. With London opening at 07:00 UTC, activity so far has stayed well inside that volatility band; the move can be tracked on the live AUD/USD rate and chart.

Trend Signals Split Across Timeframes

The daily chart remains in a down state, with price sitting below the 20-day EMA at 0.70359 and the 50-day EMA at 0.70643, and just under the 200-day EMA at 0.69704; the daily RSI14 reads 37.4. The H4 trend is mixed, with its 20-period EMA at 0.69679 sitting just under the 50-period EMA at 0.69838, and the H1 trend is also mixed, with its 20-period EMA at 0.69740 above the 50-period EMA at 0.69692. The daily slope points lower while the two shorter timeframes do not confirm it, so the picture across horizons does not line up cleanly in either direction.

Key Levels in Play

Price currently sits between S1 at 0.69635 and the daily pivot at 0.69762. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot, 8 pips above the last price, and the nearest support is S1, 4.7 pips below it. Above the pivot, R1 sits at 0.69928, R2 at 0.70055 and R3 at 0.70221; below S1, S2 sits at 0.69469 and S3 at 0.69342 — the full ladder is built with the pivot point calculator. Yesterday's session, October 6, carved out a high of 0.69889 and a low of 0.69596. The 5-day window shows a high of 0.69937 and a low of 0.69029, while the wider 20-day window shows a high of 0.72369 and a low of 0.69029. The 0.695 handle sits just below current price and the 0.70 handle just above it, with neither cleared on today's bar.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, a break above R1 at 0.69928 would open the way toward R2 at 0.70055; a slip back below the daily pivot at 0.69762 would undercut that case. On the downside, a slide through S1 at 0.69635 would open the door to S2 at 0.69469, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 0.69762 would call that path into question. Either path can be sized against the risk and reward calculator before it plays out.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The FOMC Minutes are due today at 18:00 UTC with high impact flagged and no previous or estimate figure attached. Tomorrow brings Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC, with the previous reading at 4.9%, followed by a speech from the Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, previously 197 thousand against an estimate of 200 thousand — all worth lining up on an economic calendar. Newsflow from FX Street has centered on AUD/USD's repeated struggle to clear the 0.70 handle against a firm US dollar even as the Aussie has at times shrugged off moves in US yields.

CFTC data for the week to September 29 show large speculators net short AUD/USD in futures, and that net short was added to from the prior week. US Treasury yields at the October 6 close stood at 4.79% on the 2-year, down 5 basis points, and 5.27% on the 10-year, down 4 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 48 basis points — context for the dollar side of the pair rather than a trigger in itself.

News sentiment on AUD/USD leans bullish at 53% versus 47% bearish, though the media mood score has eased to 69 out of 100 from 100 the day before, and the opportunity read sits at a neutral score of zero. None of this measures positioning or predicts direction; it describes the tone and volume of coverage only.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is boxed between S1 at 0.69635 and the daily pivot at 0.69762, with the daily trend down but the H4 and H1 trends mixed, leaving the near-term picture without a clear lean. The FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today are the main scheduled risk before Australia's inflation expectations and the Fed's Waller speak tomorrow. A break of either R1 at 0.69928 or S1 at 0.69635 would be the clearer signal of direction, with the daily pivot at 0.69762 marking the line that invalidates either case — full context remains available in ForexR's AUD/USD analysis.