AUD/USD Forecast Today: Bearish Trend Tests Key Supports

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 8, 2026, 07:16 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD faces persistent downward pressure as daily, H4, and H1 trends align lower, keeping focus on immediate support at 0.69416 ahead of US jobless claims.

Aussie Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of US Data

During the current London trading session, the Australian dollar is trading lower against the US dollar, down 0.19% on the day. The pair trades at 0.69464, establishing an intraday high of 0.69673 and an intraday low of 0.69419. This range of 25.4 pips represents roughly 56% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which stands at 0.00456 (or 45.6 pips). With New York scheduled to join the session at 12:00 UTC, market participants can monitor real-time updates using the live AUD/USD rate, chart and pivots page.

Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels Under Test

An examination of the AUD/USD technical analysis displays a consistent bearish alignment across all major timeframes. On the daily chart, the pair remains in a downward trend state, trading below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.69712. The daily 20-EMA is at 0.70286, and the daily 50-EMA is positioned at 0.70602. Momentum remains weak but is not yet oversold, as the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 34.8.

This downward posture continues on shorter-term timeframes, leaving no current disagreement among the horizons. The H4 chart shows a downward trend with its 20-EMA at 0.69623 and 50-EMA at 0.69778. Similarly, the H1 trend is down, with the 20-EMA at 0.69574 and the 50-EMA at 0.69618. This aligned weakness indicates that sellers retain structural control as the London session progresses.

Upside Barriers and Resistance to Watch

The spot price currently fluctuates between S1 at 0.69398 and the daily pivot at 0.69616. Immediate support resides at the previous day low of 0.69416, which sits just 4.8 pips below the current quote. Should the decline continue, the round level below at 0.69 offers a psychological barrier, followed by the S2 pivot support at 0.69199 and S3 at 0.68981.

On the upside, the daily pivot at 0.69616 serves as the nearest resistance, lying 15.2 pips above the last price. Above this, the round level of 0.695 serves as an intermediate hurdle, followed by the R1 resistance at 0.69815 and the previous day high at 0.69833. Looking at broader boundaries, the 5-day range is defined by a high of 0.69889 and a low of 0.69029. Meanwhile, the wider 20-day range is bounded by a high of 0.72218 and a low of 0.69029.

To frame the trading session, we can outline two distinct directional paths:

• Bearish Scenario: A break below S1 at 0.69398 would open the way to S2 at 0.69199. A move back above the daily pivot at 0.69616 would invalidate this bearish projection.
• Bullish Scenario: A break above R1 at 0.69815 would open the path toward R2 at 0.70033. However, a decline back below the daily pivot at 0.69616 would invalidate this upside outlook.

US Jobless Claims and Fed Speakers in Focus

Several key developments scheduled for today could inject fresh volatility into the pair. Markets are tracking the US Initial Jobless Claims today at 12:30 UTC, with an estimated print of 200 compared to the previous week's figure of 197. Speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers are also on today's agenda, beginning with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller today at 08:30 UTC, and followed by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem today at 17:40 UTC. Understanding how these events fit into the weekly calendar routine is discussed further in our guide to the economic calendar.

In the background, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 7, 2026, provide the macroeconomic context. The 3-month yield was recorded at 4.22%, the 2-year yield closed at 4.77% after a change of -2 basis points, and the 10-year yield ended at 5.28% following a change of 1 basis point. Additionally, market commentary from Forexcom highlights potential breakout patterns and setups across Australian dollar cross-rates.

Sentiment and Broader Market Drivers

Speculative positioning also provides structural context for the Australian dollar's performance. According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 29, 2026, large speculators held a net short AUD/USD position. During that reporting period, speculators added to net short AUD/USD positions, which brought the total net speculative positioning to -63239 contracts, down from -46814 contracts in the previous week.

In terms of news sentiment, independent data displays a mixed outlook. News coverage is currently showing a bullish share of 68% and a bearish share of 32%, with the media mood scoring 100 out of 100. Conversely, the opportunity read on AUD/USD registered a bearish score of -24, signaling a distinct contrast between overall news tone and tactical opportunities.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD enters the London session under technical pressure, pinned below its daily pivot of 0.69616. With the daily, H4, and H1 EMAs in clear downward alignment, the path of least resistance points toward support at yesterday's low of 0.69416. However, with the current daily range of 25.4 pips sitting below the daily ATR of 45.6 pips, a definitive breakout will likely await the arrival of the New York session and the upcoming US labor market data.