AUD/USD Forecast Today: Caught Between Pivot and R1

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 12, 2026, 07:01 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades between the daily pivot at 0.69711 and the previous day high at 0.69869, with daily, H4 and H1 trends split ahead of tomorrow's RBA minutes.

Where AUD/USD Stands in the Asia Session

In Asia trade, AUD/USD last changed hands at 0.69829, little changed from the previous close of 0.69833, a move of -0.01% on the day. The session has carried price between a day high of 0.69941 and a day low of 0.69614, after opening at 0.69642.

That intraday range works out to 32.7 pips, which is 73% of the 14-day Average True Range of 44.5 pips (44.5 pips per the daily ATR reading) — a day that has used up most, but not all, of its typical range. Readers can track this pair live via the AUD/USD rate and chart page, with London due to open at 07:00 UTC.

Trend and Momentum: A Mixed Picture

The daily trend is down, with price below both the 20-day EMA at 0.70185 and the 50-day EMA at 0.70541, though price remains above the 200-day EMA at 0.69734. Daily RSI reads 40.1, below the midpoint. On H4, the trend is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 0.69704 sitting just under the 50-period EMA at 0.69760. The H1 trend, by contrast, is up, with the 20-period EMA at 0.69793 above the 50-period EMA at 0.69732.

With the daily trend pointed down, H4 mixed and H1 up, the three timeframes do not agree, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than leaning either direction.

Levels That Matter

Price sits between the daily pivot at 0.69711 and R1 at 0.69952. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 0.69869, just 4 pips away, while the nearest support is the daily pivot at 0.69711, 11.8 pips below. Beyond those, R2 stands at 0.70109 and R3 at 0.70350, while S1 sits at 0.69554, S2 at 0.69313 and S3 at 0.69156.

Yesterday's session (October 9) opened at 0.69572, posted a high of 0.69869 and a low of 0.69471, and closed at 0.69794 — a range of 39.8 pips. Over the 5-day window the range runs from a high of 0.69889 to a low of 0.69310, while the 20-day window is far wider, spanning a high of 0.71669 to a low of 0.69029. The round figure at 0.70000 sits just above current trade, with 0.69500 below. For context on how these pivot and range figures are derived, see the pivot points guide or the pivot point calculator.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R1 at 0.69952 would open the path toward R2 at 0.70109; a slip back below the daily pivot at 0.69711 would invalidate that reading. On the downside, a break of S1 at 0.69554 would clear the way toward S2 at 0.69313, with a recovery back above the daily pivot at 0.69711 invalidating that case. Either scenario can be sized against risk using a risk and reward calculator before any decision is made.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

Today's calendar holds a Fed's Hammack speech at 16:50 UTC, flagged medium impact. Tomorrow brings an IMF Meeting at 00:00 UTC, the high-impact RBA Meeting Minutes at 00:30 UTC, a Fed's Waller speech at 07:45 UTC, and the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC, where the previous reading stood at 23.75. Coverage from Forex.com and ExchangeRates this week has centered on a cluster of event risk — Middle East developments, labor-market releases, US inflation data and the RBA minutes — that, as these outlets report, could keep volatility elevated into the rest of the week.

CFTC data as of the week to October 6, 2026 show large speculators net short AUD/USD, having added to that net short position over the week. US Treasury yields as of October 9, 2026 showed the 2-year at 4.80%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, up 2 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 44 basis points — context for dollar conditions rather than a cause of any AUD/USD move. News sentiment coverage volume sits at 21% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read — a separate sentiment-based score, not a forecast — stands at -23, a bearish reading that slipped from a bullish 60 to a neutral 3 within the past day.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is holding a tight band between the daily pivot at 0.69711 and the previous day high at 0.69869, with daily, H4 and H1 trends not aligned and today's range already covering 73% of the ATR. A push through R1 at 0.69952 or a break of S1 at 0.69554 would be needed to shift the picture, with tomorrow's RBA minutes and the ADP four-week average among the scheduled events that could test either level. For broader context on this pair, see the full AUD/USD analysis page.