Risk of Ruin Calculator

Probability of hitting your drawdown limit from win rate and risk.

Calculator

Risk of ruin is the probability that a losing streak wipes out your account (or hits your drawdown limit) before you succeed. This tool runs a Monte Carlo simulation from your win rate, reward-to-risk and per-trade risk.

FAQ

How is risk of ruin estimated?

We simulate thousands of trade sequences using your win rate, payoff ratio and risk per trade, then measure how often the balance falls to your ruin threshold.

How do I lower my risk of ruin?

Risk less per trade, improve your win rate or your reward-to-risk, and avoid over-leveraging.

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