US GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
United States · USD · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD) moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is US GDP?
US gross domestic product measures the total output of the economy, reported as an annualised quarterly growth rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes an advance estimate about a month after each quarter ends, then a second and third estimate, all at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
The advance estimate usually moves markets most, because the later ones revise numbers traders already know.
Read more: Fundamental Analysis in Forex.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 15.2 pips | 20.9 pips | 47.6 pips 30 Jul 2026 | Higher 2, lower 2 of 4 | Higher 2, lower 1 of 3 |
| USD/JPY | 27.3 pips | 25.9 pips | 315.1 pips 30 Jul 2026 | Higher 1, lower 3 of 4 | Higher 1, lower 2 of 3 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $20.64 | $30.96 | $42.55 28 May 2026 | Higher 2, lower 2 of 4 | Higher 2, lower 1 of 3 |
| Last 8 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h | USD/JPY 1h | Gold 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.4% | 3.2% | +0.2% | −6.6 pips | −18.9 pips | +$4.26 |
| Wed 30 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC | 2.2% | 1.5% | +0.7% | +5.5 pips | −23.1 pips | −$9.23 |
| Wed 26 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0% | −16.3 pips | +31.4 pips | +$6.79 |
| Thu 30 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC | 1.5% | 2.1% | −0.6% | +47.6 pips | −315.1 pips | +$34.56 |
| Thu 25 Jun 2026, 12:30 UTC | 2.1% | 1.6% | +0.5% | +25.9 pips | −12.4 pips | +$21.90 |
| Thu 28 May 2026, 12:30 UTC | 1.6% | 2% | −0.4% | +13.7 pips | −0.9 pips | +$42.55 |
| Thu 30 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC | 2% | 2.3% | −0.3% | −14 pips | +54.3 pips | −$19.37 |
| Tue 23 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC | 4.3% | 3.3% | +1% | −20 pips | +38 pips | −$40.24 |
US GDP FAQ
When is the next US GDP release?
The next US GDP release is scheduled for Wed 25 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after US GDP?
Over the last 8 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after US GDP was 15.2 pips, and 20.9 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 47.6 pips on 30 Jul 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
How much does USD/JPY move after US GDP?
Over the last 8 releases, the typical move in USD/JPY one hour after US GDP was 27.3 pips, and 25.9 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 315.1 pips on 30 Jul 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
Related on ForexR
This week's economic calendar · Non-Farm Payrolls · US CPI · Fed rate decision · Core PCE · ISM Manufacturing · ISM Services