USD Fed Interest Rate Decision Preview And Key Levels

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 28, 2026, 08:04 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

The US Federal Reserve releases its Interest Rate Decision today, with the estimate at 4%. Ahead of the release, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are trading quietly near daily pivots.

Fed Interest Rate Decision and Inflation Coverage

During the London session, traders are watching the upcoming US Fed Interest Rate Decision, scheduled for today at 18:00 UTC. The estimate expects the rate to hold at 4%, matching the previous release. This event runs alongside the Fed Monetary Policy Statement at 18:00 UTC, followed by the FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 UTC. As the market waits, oil-driven inflation fears are drawing attention in the newsflow, according to Reuters and FXEmpire. New York joins the market at 12:00 UTC.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY Levels

Trading at 1.11215, EUR/USD is positioned between S1 at 1.11043 and the daily pivot at 1.1141. The nearest support is the 20-day low at 1.11124, while the nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.1141. Today's range covers 32% of the 14-day ATR. Over the last 7 releases of the Fed Interest Rate Decision, the typical move an hour later was 39 pips, and the largest was 67.4 pips on 2026-09-16. In 0 of the 0 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later, and in 0 of the 0 releases that came in below the estimate, it closed lower. A move of the typical size upward from the current price reaches 1.11605, passing the daily pivot at 1.1141. A downward move reaches 1.10825, crossing the 20-day low at 1.11124, S1 at 1.11043, and S2 at 1.10847. This past behaviour is not a forecast of this release.

A break above R1 at 1.11606 would open the way to R2 at 1.11973; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.1141 would invalidate that view. On the downside, slipping below S1 at 1.11043 clears the path toward S2 at 1.10847, while a rebound above the daily pivot at 1.1141 would negate the scenario.

USD/JPY sits at 157.804, between the daily pivot at 157.751 and R1 at 158.124. The closest support is the daily pivot at 157.751, and the nearest resistance is the previous day high at 157.952. The day's range has taken up 30% of the 14-day ATR. Across 7 recorded releases, the typical move an hour after was 33.4 pips, with the largest being 91.1 pips on 2026-09-16. Out of 0 cases above the estimate, USD/JPY closed higher an hour later in 0, and out of 0 cases below the estimate, it closed lower in 0. An upward move of this typical size from the current level extends to 158.138, covering the previous day high at 157.952 and R1 at 158.124. A move of that size down reaches 157.47, crossing the daily pivot at 157.751 and S1 at 157.55.

Advancing beyond R1 at 158.124 points toward R2 at 158.325, with a drop back under the daily pivot at 157.751 invalidating the setup. A break below S1 at 157.55 would open the way to S2 at 157.177; a move back above the daily pivot at 157.751 would invalidate it.

Gold and Nasdaq 100 Setups

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at 4045.86, positioned between the daily pivot at 4038.31 and R1 at 4087.44. The nearest support is the daily pivot at 4038.31, with the previous day high acting as the nearest resistance at 4065.62. The intraday range accounts for 58% of the 14-day ATR. Clearing R1 at 4087.44 exposes R2 at 4114.74. This outlook is invalidated if price retreats below the daily pivot at 4038.31. A move below S1 at 4011.01 directs focus to S2 at 3961.88, though climbing back above the daily pivot at 4038.31 would cancel the downside case.

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) is at 29820.7, situated between the daily pivot at 29494.1 and R1 at 29859.2. Support is nearest at the previous day high of 29720.3, while R1 at 29859.2 forms the nearest resistance. Today's action spans 38% of the 14-day ATR. A break above R1 at 29859.2 would open the way to R2 at 30085.4; a move back below the daily pivot at 29494.1 would invalidate it. Falling through S1 at 29267.9 brings S2 at 28902.8 into play, but a recovery above the daily pivot at 29494.1 renders this invalid.

Market Positioning and Yield Context

As of the week to October 20, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD, added to net short USD/JPY, reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD), and added to net long Nasdaq 100 (US100). On October 27, US Treasury yields closed with the 10-year yield at 4.99%, down 1 basis point, and the 2-year yield at 4.7%, up 2 basis points.

Upcoming Economic Releases

The economic calendar today includes the BoC Monetary Policy Report, BoC Interest Rate Decision (estimate 2.5%, previous 2.25%), and BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 13:45 UTC. The BoC Press Conference follows at 14:30 UTC. Tomorrow brings the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index MoM (estimate 0.3%, previous 0.2%) and YoY (estimate 3.1%, previous 3%) at 12:30 UTC, alongside Gross Domestic Product Annualized (estimate 3.2%, previous 2.2%) and Gross Domestic Product Price Index (estimate 3.5%, previous 6.1%). The ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Rate On Deposit Facility (estimate 2.5%, previous 2.5%), and Main Refinancing Operations Rate (estimate 2.65%, previous 2.65%) are set for tomorrow at 13:15 UTC.

The Fed Interest Rate Decision comes out today at 18:00 UTC with an estimate of 4%. Going into the release, the nearest levels to price are the 20-day low at 1.11124 for EUR/USD, the daily pivot at 157.751 for USD/JPY, the daily pivot at 4038.31 for Gold (XAU/USD), and R1 at 29859.2 for the Nasdaq 100 (US100).