USD ISM Services PMI: Key Levels Across FX, Gold, Nasdaq 100

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 05:11 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

The US ISM Services PMI is due at 15:00 UTC today with the estimate at 54.8 against a previous 54.9. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and the Nasdaq 100 each sit at distinct pivot levels going in, with no uniform signal across the dollar pairs.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: US ISM Services PMI calendar page.

ISM Services PMI: Timing and What's Expected

Cash forex is trading through the Asia session, with London not due to open until 07:00 UTC. The day's main data point is the US ISM Services PMI, due at 15:00 UTC today, with the estimate at 54.8 against a previous reading of 54.9.

Overnight coverage pointed to a softer dollar tone, with FX Street tying the move in EUR/USD to broader dollar softness and Forex.com noting dollar weakness around the US midterm elections even as AUD/USD struggled to benefit. Gold coverage was split: FX Street flagged both firmer demand and a dip tied to early midterm election trends, while FXEmpire pointed to pressure on the metals complex heading into the week's jobs data. The event-history figures for past ISM Services releases used below describe past behavior only, not a forecast for today's print.

FX, Gold and Nasdaq 100 Heading Into the Release

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is last at 1.12344, up 0.39% on the day, sitting between R2 and R3 at 1.12219 and 1.12378. The day's range has already covered 128% of the 14-day ATR of 62.2 pips, with the 5-day high at 1.12363 just 1.9 pips above and R2 at 1.12219 the nearest level below. Across the last 11 ISM Services releases, EUR/USD's typical move an hour later was 9.4 pips; of the six releases that came in above estimate, four closed lower an hour on and two closed higher, while three of the four below-estimate releases closed higher and one closed lower. A move of that typical size would reach 1.12438 on the upside, a span that takes in both the 5-day high and R3, or 1.1225 to the downside, which holds no levels in between.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is last at 157.803, down 0.55% on the day, between S2 at 157.363 and S1 at 158.017. The day's range has covered 150% of the 89.9-pip ATR, with the previous day low at 157.728 the nearest support just 7.5 pips away and S1 the nearest resistance 21.4 pips above. Over the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 13.7 pips; three of six above-estimate releases closed higher and three closed lower, while three of four below-estimate releases closed lower and one closed higher. A typical-sized move from here reaches 157.94 on the upside, with no levels inside that span, or 157.666 to the downside, a distance that takes in the previous day low at 157.728.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is last at 3953.65, up 0.60% on the day, sitting between the daily pivot at 3932.16 and R1 at 3968.97. The day's range has used just 57% of the $78.97 ATR, with R1 the nearest resistance $15.32 away and the pivot the nearest support $21.49 below. Across the last 11 releases, gold's typical move an hour later was $4.85; five of six above-estimate releases closed higher and one closed lower, while all four below-estimate releases also closed higher. A move of that typical size would reach $3958.50 on the upside or $3948.80 on the downside, with no other levels inside either span.

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

The Nasdaq 100 is last at 27804.3, down 1.69% on the day, between S2 at 27755 and S1 at 28018.4. The day's range has already run to 153% of the 576.12-point ATR, with S2 the nearest support just 49.3 points below and the previous day low at 27901.9 the nearest resistance 97.6 points above. In the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 90 points; five of six above-estimate releases closed higher and one closed lower, while results split evenly below estimate, two higher and two lower. A typical-sized move would reach 27894.3 on the upside, with no levels inside, or 27714.3 to the downside, a span that takes in S2 at 27755.

Scenario Levels: Upside and Downside Paths

For EUR/USD, clearing R3 at 1.12378 would open a path toward the next round number at 1.125, a scenario undone by a drop back below the daily pivot at 1.11903. On the other side, a break of S1 at 1.11746 points toward S2 at 1.11587, invalidated by a recovery above that same pivot.

In USD/JPY, resistance at R1 159.035 giving way would set up a run toward R2 at 159.399, unless price returns beneath the daily pivot at 158.381. A slide through S2 at 157.363 would instead expose S3 at 156.999, a path cancelled by a bounce back above the pivot.

Gold clearing R1 at 3968.97 would put R2 at 4007.84 in view, negated by a fall back under the daily pivot at 3932.16. Conversely, a break of S1 at 3893.29 would open the door to S2 at 3856.48, undone by a push back above the pivot.

Should the Nasdaq 100 clear R1 at 28428.6, R2 at 28575.4 becomes the next reference point, invalidated by a retreat under the daily pivot at 28165.2. A breakdown through S2 at 27755 would instead point toward S3 at 27608.2, a path that a reversal above the pivot would cancel.

Positioning, Yields and the Rest of Today's Calendar

As of the week to October 27, CFTC data show speculators net short EUR/USD and net short USD/JPY, with both short positions added to over the week. The same report shows a net long position in Gold and in the Nasdaq 100, though speculators trimmed both of those longs. US Treasury yields closed on November 3 with the 2-year at 4.61%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.95%, up 4 basis points, putting the 2s10s curve at 34 basis points.

Ahead of the ISM print, euro area inflation data lands at 10:00 UTC today, with headline HICP estimated at 4.0% year-on-year versus 3.8% previously and the core rate seen steady at 2.5%. The ADP Employment Change follows at 13:15 UTC, estimated at 69 against a previous reading of 90. Tomorrow brings Australia's trade balance at 00:30 UTC, an ECB speech from President Lagarde, and a cluster of Bank of England releases, including the interest rate decision, all at 12:00 UTC.

Bottom Line

The ISM Services PMI is due at 15:00 UTC today, with the estimate at 54.8 against a previous 54.9. Going in, EUR/USD sits closest to the 5-day high at 1.12363, USD/JPY closest to the previous day low at 157.728, Gold closest to R1 at 3968.97, and the Nasdaq 100 closest to S2 at 27755.