How could US GDP and Core PCE data impact USD/CAD today?

US GDP annualized (previous 2.2, estimate 3.2), the GDP price index (previous 6.1, estimate 3.5), core PCE month over month (previous 0.2, estimate 0.3) and core PCE year over year (previous 3, estimate 3.1) are all scheduled today at 12:30 UTC. No prior-release price history is included here, so the stated distances are 21.2 pips to the daily pivot at 1.40162 and 7.2 pips to the previous day low at 1.39878.

How does upcoming Canadian GDP fit into the CAD outlook?

Canadian GDP month over month is tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, not today, with a previous reading of 0 and an estimate of 0.2, marked medium impact. The US employment cost index shares that time, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.8. The calendar places both after today's US GDP and PCE releases and does not say how CAD will respond.

USD/CAD Forecast Today Stays Neutral Under 1.4

Q: What key technical levels are controlling USD/CAD price action?

Price at 1.3995 is between S1 at 1.39649 and the daily pivot at 1.40162. Nearest support is the previous day low at 1.39878, 7.2 pips away, and nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.40162, 21.2 pips away. R1 is at 1.40446, and the round level above price is 1.4.

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 29, 2026, 07:39 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is neutral at 1.3995 in the London session, with four-hour and one-hour trends down and the daily trend mixed. Nearest levels are 1.39878 and the daily pivot at 1.40162.

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Price1.39950

Day change+0.01%

Day range1.39690 - 1.39977

ATR (14)0.00620

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.41243	S1	1.39649
R2	1.40959	S2	1.39365
R1	1.40446	S3	1.38852
Previous day high	1.40675	Previous day low	1.39878
20-day high	1.42989	20-day low	1.39675
Daily pivot 1.40162. Data as of 2026-10-29 07:35 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.40162, R1 1.40446, R2 1.40959, S1 1.39649, S2 1.39365 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/CAD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-29 07:35 UTC.

USD/CAD Pauses Under 1.4 in London

USD/CAD is neutral in the London session, last at 1.3995 and up 0.01% on the day from the previous close at 1.39933. Price sits between S1 at 1.39649 and the daily pivot at 1.40162. Nearest support is the previous day low at 1.39878, 7.2 pips away, and nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.40162, 21.2 pips away. Four-hour and one-hour trends point down while the daily trend is mixed, so the timeframes do not agree.

The day open is 1.39922, the day high is 1.39977 and the day low is 1.3969. The day range is 28.7 pips, 46% of the 14-period ATR at 62 pips. The day low at 1.3969 sits under the previous day low at 1.39878, and the last at 1.3995 stands above that same previous day low. The live USD/CAD rate matches this print.

Yesterday's bar shows an open at 1.40494, a high at 1.40675, a low at 1.39878 and a range of 79.7 pips. USD/CAD is down 0.36% over five days and down 1.65% over twenty days.

Trend and Momentum Do Not Align

The daily trend state is mixed. Price is above the 200-day EMA at 1.39228 and below the 20-day EMA at 1.40892 and the 50-day EMA at 1.40619. Daily RSI reads 38.9.

The four-hour trend is down, with the 20-period EMA at 1.4019 and the 50-period EMA at 1.4049. The one-hour trend is down as well, with the 20-period EMA at 1.40025 and the 50-period EMA at 1.40173. Shorter charts agree with each other. The daily chart does not, and that split keeps the bias neutral.

Pivot, Range and Round Levels

The nearest levels are the previous day low at 1.39878 and the daily pivot at 1.40162. The round level above price is 1.4 and the round level below price is 1.395.

The daily pivot is 1.40162, R1 is 1.40446, R2 is 1.40959 and R3 is 1.41243. S1 is 1.39649, S2 is 1.39365 and S3 is 1.38852, alongside these pivot-point levels.

The previous day high is 1.40675 and the previous day low is 1.39878. The five-day window has its high at 1.40675 and its low at 1.39675. The twenty-day window has its high at 1.42989 and its low at 1.39675.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A break above R1 at 1.40446 would open the way to R2 at 1.40959, with 51.3 pips between the trigger and the target. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.40162 would invalidate that path.

Separately, a break below S1 at 1.39649 would open the way to S2 at 1.39365, with 28.4 pips between those levels. Invalidation there is a move back above the daily pivot at 1.40162. In both cases the daily pivot is only the invalidation, not the trigger.

US Releases Today and Canada GDP Tomorrow

The session is London, and New York joins at 12:00 UTC. Today at 12:30 UTC the high-impact US releases are gross domestic product annualized, previous 2.2 and estimate 3.2, the GDP price index, previous 6.1 and estimate 3.5, core PCE month over month, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3, and core PCE year over year, previous 3 and estimate 3.1.

Medium-impact US figures share that 12:30 UTC slot on the economic calendar. Personal spending is previous 0.9 and estimate 0.6. PCE prices year over year are previous 3.4 and estimate 3.6. PCE prices quarter over quarter are previous 5 and estimate 3.4. Personal income is previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3. Initial jobless claims are previous 194 and estimate 199. Core PCE quarter over quarter is previous 3.3 and estimate 2.4. PCE prices month over month are previous 0.3 and estimate 0.5. This list does not rank them. Nearest resistance is 21.2 pips away and nearest support is 7.2 pips away.

Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, Canadian GDP month over month is scheduled, previous 0 and estimate 0.2, medium impact. The US employment cost index is at the same hour tomorrow, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.8, medium impact.

FXEmpire and ExchangeRates discuss the Canadian rate path, while FX Street and Forex.com frame USD/CAD as a forecast story. News volume is 367% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read is neutral at 7, which describes coverage rather than order flow or a forecast.

As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net long USD/CAD, and the weekly shift is that speculators reduced net long USD/CAD. The report records positioning and is not a forecast.

At the October 28 close, the 2-year US yield was at 4.67%, down 3 basis points versus October 27, and the 10-year yield was at 5.05%, up 6 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 38 basis points and the 3-month yield at 4.18%. Those yields are rate context, not a proven cause of the pair's level.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD is neutral at 1.3995, between the previous day low at 1.39878 and the daily pivot at 1.40162, just under the round level at 1.4. Daily conditions are mixed, while four-hour and one-hour trends are down, and the day range of 28.7 pips is 46% of the 62-pip ATR. High-impact US GDP and core PCE prints are due today at 12:30 UTC, after New York joins at 12:00 UTC, with Canadian GDP on the calendar tomorrow.