USD/CAD Forecast Today: Pair Pinned Below the Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 23, 2026, 07:05 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD trades near 1.40108 in the London session, caught between the previous day low at 1.40029 and the daily pivot at 1.40192, with daily, H4 and H1 trends not fully aligned ahead of US PMI and Canadian retail sales data.

Where USD/CAD Stands in the London Session

USD/CAD is changing hands at 1.40108, up 0.03% on the day after adding 0.00042 from the previous close at 1.40066. The day's range has run from a low of 1.39958 to a high of 1.40167, inside an opening print of 1.40064. For live price action and charts, see the USD/CAD rate page.

That intraday range works out to 20.9 pips, only about 33% of the 63.2-pip average true range over the past 14 days. Against yesterday's 45.3-pip range, between a high of 1.40482 and a low of 1.40029, the pair is moving in a notably tighter band so far in the London session.

Trend and Momentum Don't Fully Agree

The daily trend reads as mixed: price sits above the 200-day EMA at 1.39225 but below both the 20-day EMA at 1.41262 and the 50-day EMA at 1.40702. The four-hour chart is firmer in direction, with price below its 20-period EMA at 1.40448 and 50-period EMA at 1.41021, putting that trend state at down. The one-hour chart shows the same, price below its 20-period EMA at 1.40132 and 50-period EMA at 1.40293, also marked down.

Daily RSI sits at 38, below the neutral 50 line without being at an extreme. The pair is down 1.21% over the past five days and down 0.87% over the past twenty, consistent with the shorter-timeframe pressure, even as the daily EMA picture stays mixed. With the daily structure not aligned with the clearly lower H4 and H1 trends, the overall read here is neutral rather than a one-way call.

Levels That Matter Right Now

Price sits between the previous day low at 1.40029 and the daily pivot at 1.40192. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot, 8.4 pips above current price, with the nearest support the previous day low, 7.9 pips below. For a breakdown of how these levels are built, the pivot points guide covers the method, and the pivot point calculator can run today's values directly.

Above the pivot at 1.40192, resistance levels stand at R1 1.40356, R2 1.40645 and R3 1.40809. Below it, support runs through S1 1.39903, S2 1.39739 and S3 1.3945. Yesterday's session (2026-10-22) printed a high of 1.40482 and a low of 1.40029. The five-day window runs from a high of 1.41979 down to a low of 1.40029, the same figure as yesterday's low, while the twenty-day window stretches from a high of 1.42989 to a low of 1.40029 — that same floor again. The round number at 1.40000 sits just under current price, with 1.40500 the next round figure above.

Bullish and Bearish Paths From Here

A break above R1 at 1.40356 would open the way toward R2 at 1.40645, a move of 28.9 pips from trigger to target; a slip back below the daily pivot at 1.40192 would invalidate that upside case.

On the other side, a push through S1 at 1.39903 would clear a path down to S2 at 1.39739, a 16.4-pip span; reclaiming the daily pivot at 1.40192 would undercut that downside case.

What Could Move USD/CAD Today

Canada releases Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) and headline Retail Sales (MoM) at 12:30 UTC, both previously at -0.7%, with estimates of 1.0% and 1.3% respectively. The US calendar is busier: S&P Global Services PMI (previous 58.8, estimate 57.9), Manufacturing PMI (previous 55.9, estimate 55.6) and Composite PMI (previous 58.4, no estimate given) all land at 13:45 UTC. At 14:00 UTC, the University of Michigan releases its 5-year inflation expectation (previous and estimate both 3.5%), 1-year inflation expectation (previous and estimate both 4.7%), Consumer Sentiment Index (previous and estimate both 46.3) and Consumer Expectations Index (previous 47.3, no estimate). More on reading a session like this is in the economic calendar guide.

Newsflow from outlets including FX Street, FXEmpire and InvestingCube has centered on two linked threads: a softer US dollar tied to falling Treasury yields, and a firmer Canadian dollar that several pieces connect to rising oil prices and a slip under the 1.4000 area against its 50-day EMA.

CFTC data as of the week to October 13 showed large speculators net long USD/CAD in futures-equivalent terms, with the latest weekly shift showing speculators adding to that net long USD/CAD position. US Treasury yields at the October 22 close stood at 4.65% on the 2-year, down 16 basis points, and 4.96% on the 10-year, down 17 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 31 basis points.

News volume around USD/CAD is running at 181% of its 90-day average. The opportunity read has settled at 8, a neutral score, after sliding from 25 (bullish) to -2 (neutral) within the past 24 hours.

Bottom Line

USD/CAD is holding a tight range in London trade, squeezed between the previous day low at 1.40029 and the daily pivot at 1.40192, with daily trend signals mixed against a clearer down read on the four-hour and one-hour charts. A break of either the R1 at 1.40356 or S1 at 1.39903 boundary, potentially around the Canadian retail sales or US PMI releases this session, would be the clearer signal of direction from here. For position sizing and risk framing around either scenario, the risk and reward calculator and position size calculator are available.