USD/CAD Forecast Today: Neutral With Split Trends

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 26, 2026, 07:23 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is neutral at 1.40157 in London, up 0.09% from the previous close and still between the daily pivot at 1.39959 and R1 at 1.40242, with daily, four-hour and hourly trends in disagreement.

Where USD/CAD stands in London

USD/CAD last printed at 1.40157 in the London session, up 0.00132, or 0.09%, from the previous close at 1.40025. New York joins at 12:00 UTC, so the overlap has not started. On the live USD/CAD rate, the day open is 1.40389, the day high is 1.40418 and the day low is 1.39974, and the last price is inside that band.

The day range is 44.4 pips, 71% of the 14-day ATR at 62.3 pips. The October 23 candle covered 50.1 pips from an open at 1.40064, with a high at 1.40176, a low at 1.39675 and yesterday's close at 1.40025.

Trend and momentum do not agree

The daily state is mixed. Price is above the 200-day EMA at 1.39224, below the 20-day EMA at 1.41144 and below the 50-day EMA at 1.40675. Daily RSI is 37.6. The five-day change is down 0.86%. The 20-day change is down 0.88%.

The four-hour state is down. The H4 20-period EMA is at 1.40253 and the H4 50-period EMA is at 1.40785, and the last price is under both. The one-hour state is mixed. The H1 20-period EMA is at 1.40069 and the H1 50-period EMA is at 1.40138, and the last price is above those hourly averages while the hourly state stays mixed. Daily mixed, four-hour down and one-hour mixed leave the bias neutral.

Levels around the last print

Price is between the daily pivot at 1.39959 and R1 at 1.40242. Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.40176, 1.9 pips above the last price. Nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.39959, 19.8 pips below. The spread is 2.3 pips beside that 1.9 pip gap.

Resistance on the pivot map is R1 at 1.40242, R2 at 1.4046 and R3 at 1.40743, and support is S1 at 1.39741, S2 at 1.39458 and S3 at 1.3924. The day high at 1.40418 is above R1 and below R2, while the last price has not cleared R1. The day low at 1.39974 is above the daily pivot and above S1. The pivot point calculator uses this same map, and the daily pivot is the invalidation on both paths, not a trigger.

The previous day high is 1.40176 and the previous day low is 1.39675. The five-day high is 1.41324 and the five-day low is 1.39675. The 20-day high is 1.42989 and the 20-day low is 1.39675. The round level below price is 1.4 and the round level above price is 1.405.

Bullish path and bearish path

A break above R1 at 1.40242 would open the way to R2 at 1.4046, covering 21.8 pips from trigger to target. That bullish path would be invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 1.39959. Price is already above the pivot, so the pivot is not an upside trigger, and R1 remains overhead.

The lower case starts further down. A break below S1 at 1.39741 would put S2 at 1.39458 in reach, a 28.3 pip run from trigger to target. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.39959 would invalidate that bearish path. S1 remains untested, with the last print still between the pivot and R1 and the previous day high at 1.40176 still the nearest level above.

Tomorrow's US data and nearby context

No listed release falls today. Tomorrow brings medium-impact US figures. At 12:15 UTC, ADP Employment Change 4-week average shows a previous reading of 18.5 and no estimate. At 12:30 UTC, Durable Goods Orders show a previous reading of 0 and an estimate of 0.6. At the same 12:30 UTC slot, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft show a previous reading of 1.6 with no estimate, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense show a previous reading of 0.1 with no estimate, and Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation show a previous reading of 0.3 and an estimate of 0.6. At 13:00 UTC, the Housing Price Index (MoM) shows a previous reading of 0.3 and an estimate of 0.1. The economic calendar places every one of those releases tomorrow.

Action Forex and Forexcom discuss USD/CAD in a central-bank context, according to the coverage, without proving why price is at 1.40157.

As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net long USD/CAD, and over that week speculators reduced net long USD/CAD. That CFTC reading is delayed positioning, not a forecast of the next move.

US Treasury yields are context from the October 23 close, not a demonstrated cause of the London print. The 2-year yield was at 4.69%, up 4 basis points versus October 22, the 10-year yield was at 5%, up 4 basis points, the 3-month yield was at 4.22%, and the 2s10s curve was at 31 basis points.

News volume is 7% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read is bearish at a score of -29. An alert on that opportunity read recorded a shift from 25, labeled bullish, to -47, labeled bearish, within 24 hours, and it does not confirm a level.

Bottom line for London

USD/CAD at 1.40157 is up 0.09% from the previous close and still between the daily pivot at 1.39959 and R1 at 1.40242, with the previous day high at 1.40176 only 1.9 pips overhead. Split daily and hourly states against a down four-hour state keep the bias neutral. A break above R1 at 1.40242 would open the way to R2 at 1.4046 and would fail on a return below the daily pivot at 1.39959, whereas a break below S1 at 1.39741 would put S2 at 1.39458 in play and would fail on a return above that pivot.