Forex Market Update: Dollar Firmer, Bias Neutral

Session brief Neutral bias Nov 6, 2026, 13:05 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Dollar pairs are higher on the day in the London and New York overlap, but daily trends are mixed, so the dollar read stays neutral ahead of today's 13:30 UTC labor data.

The day so far

In the London and New York overlap the US dollar is higher on the day against the euro, sterling, the yen, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, yet the daily trends do not line up, so the dollar bias stays neutral. The Nasdaq 100 leads, up 1.93% on the day, with the daily trend and the four-hour trend both down and a 14-day RSI at 25.4. USD/JPY is up 0.41% and USD/CAD is up 0.32%. Bitcoin is up 0.11% and Ethereum is down 0.01%. The softer side is WTI, down 0.8%, then AUD/USD, down 0.73%, gold, down 0.61%, GBP/USD, down 0.46%, and EUR/USD, down 0.45%. Each figure is the change since the previous close for the whole trading day, not a move confined to this overlap. Over five days the Nasdaq 100 is down 7.13% and WTI is down 12.23%. London closes at 16:00 UTC. Related notes are on the ForexR market analysis page.

Three dollar setups

AUD/USD at 0.68776 is already below S1 at 0.68929, beyond the bottom of the pivot ladder, so S1 is resistance from here. The daily pivot is 0.69582 and R1 is 0.69938. A recovery through S1 at 0.68929 would put the daily pivot back in range, with R1 still above it. That recovery view fades if S1 is not retaken, leaving the day low at 0.6861 as the low print and the day high at 0.69412 as the high print. The daily trend and the four-hour trend are both down, the 14-day RSI is 39.2, the five-day change is down 2.12%, and the 14-day ATR is 49.5 pips (ATR and volatility).

USD/JPY at 158.292 is already above R1 at 158.239, so that level is support underneath, not a break still ahead. The daily pivot is 157.878 and S1 is 157.278. Holding above R1 leaves the day high at 158.356 as the high print and the day low at 157.235 as the low print. A slide back under R1 would put the daily pivot in play again, and S1 would matter only after that pivot. The daily trend is mixed, the four-hour trend is up, the 14-day RSI is 48.3, the five-day change is up 0.39%, and the 14-day ATR is 93.3 pips.

USD/CAD at 1.40618 shares the 13:30 UTC timestamp with both the US and Canadian labor releases, and price is already above R1 at 1.40461, so R1 is support from here. The daily pivot is 1.39939 and S1 is 1.3965. Only a move back below R1 would return the daily pivot to an active role. S1 stays lower support, not a trigger while price holds above R1. The day high is 1.40808 and the day low is 1.4009. The daily trend is mixed, the four-hour trend is up, the 14-day RSI is 45.3, the five-day change is up 0.53%, and the 14-day ATR is 62.6 pips.

News, yields and the calendar

FX Street and FXEmpire both carry gold headlines that place the US Nonfarm Payrolls release in the frame. Other FX Street titles take up sterling and the euro against the dollar, and no second publisher states those themes. Coverage shows what is being discussed. It does not show why the day prints landed where they did. Gold at 4063.86 sits between support at S1 at 4048.77 and resistance at the daily pivot at 4097.77, with R1 at 4137.8 above. A push through that pivot would open the way toward R1. A drop under S1 would put gold beyond the bottom of this ladder. The daily trend is down and the four-hour trend is up.

US Treasury yields at the November 5 close showed the 2-year at 4.46%, down 12 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.84%, down 6 basis points versus November 4. The 3-month yield was 4.17% and the 2-year/10-year spread was 38 basis points. That is rate context for today's labor data, not a proven cause of the day's moves.

Today at 13:30 UTC, US Nonfarm Payrolls is high impact, previous 29, estimate 65. Average hourly earnings month on month is high impact, previous 0.1, estimate 0.3, and the year-on-year figure is high impact, previous 3, estimate 2.9. The unemployment rate is medium impact, previous 4.2, estimate 4.2. Participation, previous 61.8, and U6, previous 7.6, are medium impact with no estimate. Canada at the same 13:30 UTC time has high-impact unemployment, previous 6.5, estimate 6.5, high-impact net employment change, previous -68.3, estimate 13.6, and medium-impact average hourly wages year on year, previous 2.3, no estimate. Today at 15:00 UTC, before the London close, Michigan sentiment is high impact, previous 48, estimate 48. Michigan expectations, previous 48.8, and one-year inflation expectations, previous 4.7, are medium impact with no estimate. The seasonally adjusted Ivey index is medium impact, previous 58.2, estimate 58, and the Ivey index is medium impact, previous 61.9. Times are listed in the economic calendar guide.

Bottom line

The dollar read stays neutral. Day percentage changes favor the dollar in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD, but the daily trend is down only on EUR/USD and AUD/USD and mixed on the other three. Four-hour trends are mixed on the euro, up on USD/JPY and USD/CAD, and down on AUD/USD. GBP/USD daily and four-hour trends are both mixed, with price at 1.33867 under S1 at 1.34284. EUR/USD at 1.11673 is under S1 at 1.11909. One path keeps USD/JPY above R1 at 158.239 and USD/CAD above R1 at 1.40461, while AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD stay capped by those S1 levels. A drop back through the two R1 supports, or a rebound through the three S1 resistances, would take that path off the table. The releases do not say which path prints next.