What is the EUR/USD forecast today ahead of Lagarde?

The EUR/USD forecast today is neutral. Price is at 1.12223 in the Asia session, between S1 at 1.12064 and the daily pivot at 1.12332, with the daily trend down, the four-hour trend up and the one-hour trend mixed. Lagarde speaks today at 16:30 UTC. A break above R1 at 1.12627 would open R2 at 1.12895, and a break below S1 at 1.12064 would open S2 at 1.11769.

Why is the euro struggling to rebound against the dollar?

The daily trend is down, price is below the 20-day EMA at 1.1273, the 50-day EMA at 1.13814 and the 200-day EMA at 1.15487, and daily RSI is 41.1, while the four-hour trend is up. Coverage from FX Street, Forex.com, FXEmpire and ExchangeRates may be discussing a restrained rebound, but that does not prove the cause of the 0.12% Asia decline. As of the week to October 13, 2026, speculators were net short EUR/USD and had added to that net short.

How could ECB speeches move EUR/USD today?

Today's calendar lists ECB's Nagel speech at 07:15 UTC, ECB's Cipollone speech at 08:00 UTC, the German Buba Monthly Report at 10:00 UTC and ECB's President Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC. None has a previous reading or an estimate, and no past price reaction is given, so there is no typical move to cite. Nearest resistance is 10.9 pips away at the daily pivot at 1.12332, and nearest support is 15.9 pips away at S1 at 1.12064.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Neutral Before Lagarde

Q: What levels would end the current EUR/USD range?

The Asia range so far runs from the day low at 1.12188 to the day high at 1.12367, 17.9 pips, against a 14-day ATR of 64.3 pips. A break above R1 at 1.12627 would open the way to R2 at 1.12895, and a break below S1 at 1.12064 would open the way to S2 at 1.11769. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.12332 would invalidate the bullish path, and a move back above it would invalidate the bearish path.

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 21, 2026, 06:45 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is neutral at 1.12223 in Asia, down 0.12% and between S1 at 1.12064 and the daily pivot at 1.12332. Daily trend is down, four-hour trend is up, and Lagarde speaks today at 16:30 UTC.

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Price1.12223

Day change-0.12%

Day range1.12188 - 1.12367

ATR (14)0.00643

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.13190	S1	1.12064
R2	1.12895	S2	1.11769
R1	1.12627	S3	1.11501
Previous day high	1.12601	Previous day low	1.12038
20-day high	1.14505	20-day low	1.11124
Daily pivot 1.12332. Data as of 2026-10-21 06:01 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.12332, R1 1.12627, R2 1.12895, S1 1.12064, S2 1.11769 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-21 06:01 UTC.

Where EUR/USD stands in Asia

EUR/USD is neutral in the Asia session, with the last price at 1.12223 between S1 at 1.12064 and the daily pivot at 1.12332. Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends do not agree. Nearest resistance is the daily pivot, 10.9 pips away, and nearest support is S1, 15.9 pips away. The change from the previous close at 1.12358 is -0.00135, down 0.12% on the day. The spread is 1.7 pips, with the bid at 1.12223 and the ask at 1.1224.

The day opened at 1.12348. The day high is 1.12367 and the day low is 1.12188, a day range of 17.9 pips, 28% of the 14-day ATR at 64.3 pips (0.00643). The day high at 1.12367 is above the daily pivot, while the last price is below it. London opens at 07:00 UTC, and the session in progress is Asia. Those prints are on the live EUR/USD rate, chart and pivots, beside ATR and volatility.

Trend and momentum do not agree

The daily trend is down. Price is below the 200-day EMA at 1.15487, below the 50-day EMA at 1.13814 and below the 20-day EMA at 1.1273. Daily RSI is 41.1. The five-day change is up 0.22%. The 20-day change is down 1.95%.

The four-hour trend is up, with the H4 20-period EMA at 1.12209 and the H4 50-period EMA at 1.12198. The one-hour trend is mixed: the H1 20-period EMA is 1.1226, the H1 50-period EMA is 1.12239 and the last price is 1.12223. A down daily state, an up four-hour state and a mixed one-hour state keep the bias neutral.

Levels around the Asia price

Nearest resistance remains the daily pivot at 1.12332, 10.9 pips away. Nearest support remains S1 at 1.12064, 15.9 pips away. Further resistance levels are R1 at 1.12627, R2 at 1.12895 and R3 at 1.1319. Further support levels are S2 at 1.11769 and S3 at 1.11501.

On October 20, yesterday's high was 1.12601 and yesterday's low was 1.12038. Yesterday's open was 1.121 and yesterday's close was 1.12358, with that day's range at 56.3 pips. The previous day low at 1.12038 sits below S1 and above the round level at 1.12.

The five-day high is 1.12688 and the five-day low is 1.11124. The 20-day high is 1.14505 and the 20-day low is 1.11124. The round level above the last price is 1.125. The round level below it is 1.12.

Bullish path and bearish path

A break above R1 at 1.12627 would open the way to R2 at 1.12895, a 26.8-pip span from trigger to target. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.12332 would invalidate that view. The last price has not reached R1 at 1.12627, and it is still below the daily pivot at 1.12332, so that upside path is not underway.

A break below S1 at 1.12064 would open the way to S2 at 1.11769, with 29.5 pips between that trigger and that target. This bearish path fails if price moves back above the daily pivot at 1.12332. The day low at 1.12188 is still above S1, and the round level at 1.12 is below S1.

Calendar, coverage and older context

All four items fall today, and none has a previous reading or an estimate. ECB's Nagel speech is at 07:15 UTC and is medium impact, after London opens at 07:00 UTC. ECB's Cipollone speech is at 08:00 UTC, medium impact. The German Buba Monthly Report is at 10:00 UTC, medium impact. ECB's President Lagarde speech is at 16:30 UTC and is high impact. The same UTC times are on the economic calendar.

FX Street, Forex.com, FXEmpire and ExchangeRates are covering the euro against the dollar, and the shared theme is a rebound that may stay restrained, together with dollar trading in the major pairs, as reported by those publishers. That coverage may describe the conversation; it does not establish the 0.12% Asia decline.

As of the week to October 13, 2026, large speculators were net short EUR/USD, with the short share at 61.8% and the long share at 38.2%, a net short of 137573 contracts. Speculators added to net short EUR/USD that week, from a net short of 99332 contracts, a change of 38241 contracts, and that positioning is not a forecast.

US Treasury yields at the October 20, 2026 close are context only. The 2-year yield was at 4.79%, up 2 basis points versus October 19, the 10-year yield was at 5.12%, down 3 basis points, the 3-month yield was at 4.26%, and the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year was 33 basis points.

News volume stands at 176% of the 90-day average. The opportunity read is -41, bearish, while an alert on that read shows a move from -43, bearish, to 3, neutral, in 24 hours.

Bottom line

EUR/USD at 1.12223 is down 0.12% in Asia and still between S1 at 1.12064 and the daily pivot at 1.12332, with a 17.9-pip day range against a 64.3-pip ATR. The daily trend is down and RSI is 41.1, the four-hour trend is up and the one-hour trend is mixed, so the bias is neutral. A break above R1 at 1.12627 would open R2 at 1.12895, and a break below S1 at 1.12064 would open S2 at 1.11769. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.12332 would invalidate the bullish path, and a move back above that pivot would invalidate the bearish path.