What is the EUR/USD forecast today?

EUR/USD faces conflicting trends today, with rising short-term momentum and a larger daily downtrend. The pair trades near R1 support at 1.12425, and a break above R2 at 1.12547 would open the way to 1.12693.

How will US jobless claims impact EUR/USD?

High-impact US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims are scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. The estimates are 200K and 1720K, respectively, which could influence near-term price action.

What technical levels should I watch for EUR/USD?

The nearest resistance is R2 at 1.12547, and the nearest support is R1 at 1.12425. The daily pivot sits at 1.12279, while the 5-day high is located at 1.12688.

Is there bullish potential for EUR/USD this week?

While the daily EMA state is down, the 1-hour and 4-hour EMA states are pointing up. A break above the immediate R2 trigger at 1.12547 would open the way to higher upside targets.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Price Tests R2 Resistance Amid Trend Conflict

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 22, 2026, 06:31 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades near 1.12454 in the Asia session, pushing against short-term resistance while facing a longer-term daily downtrend. Focus shifts to US jobless claims and regional confidence data for further direction.

City towers and bridges beside a river at sunset

Price1.12454

Day change+0.13%

Day range1.12213 - 1.12553

ATR (14)0.00616

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.12693	S1	1.12157
R2	1.12547	S2	1.12011
R1	1.12425	S3	1.11889
Previous day high	1.12401	Previous day low	1.12133
20-day high	1.14103	20-day low	1.11124
Daily pivot 1.12279. Data as of 2026-10-22 06:03 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.12279, R1 1.12425, R2 1.12547, S1 1.12157, S2 1.12011 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-22 06:03 UTC.

EUR/USD Market Snapshot in the Asia Session

In the Asia session, ahead of the London open at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD is trading at 1.12454, up 0.13% on the day. The pair sits between R1 at 1.12425 and R2 at 1.12547. Volatility remains contained for now, with the day range at 34 pips, which accounts for 55% of the 14-day ATR of 61.6 pips. You can view the live EUR/USD rate for real-time pivot tracking.

Trend and Momentum Conflict

The evidence from technical timeframes is currently mixed. The 1-hour and 4-hour EMA states point up, indicating short-term strength. However, the daily EMA state remains down, with price trading below the 200-day EMA at 1.1546. The daily RSI sits at 40.6. Because the short-term and daily timeframes conflict, the immediate directional bias is neutral.

Key Technical Levels

The nearest support level is R1 at 1.12425, positioned just 2.9 pips below the current price. On the upside, the nearest resistance is R2 at 1.12547, which is 9.3 pips away. The daily pivot sits lower at 1.12279.

Looking at recent market boundaries, the 5-day range spans from a high of 1.12688 to a low of 1.1147. The 20-day range is wider, reaching from a high of 1.14103 down to a low of 1.11124. Yesterday's high was 1.12401, while the low reached 1.12133. Traders may also monitor round levels, with 1.125 acting as a threshold above and 1.12 located below. Applying a pivot point calculator can help map these structures into the next session.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A break above R2 at 1.12547 would open the way to R3 at 1.12693. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.12279 would invalidate this view.

Alternatively, a break below S1 at 1.12157 would open the way to S2 at 1.12011. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.12279 would invalidate it. For more updates, follow our EUR/USD analysis.

What Could Move the Market Today

The economic calendar features European confidence data and high-impact labor numbers from the United States. Today at 06:45 UTC, France releases Business Confidence for October, with an estimate of 101%. Spain follows at 10:00 UTC with September Consumer Confidence, estimated at 83.4%. At 12:30 UTC, the focus shifts to US Jobless Claims. Initial Jobless Claims are estimated at 200K, the 4-Week Average is estimated at 200K, and Continuing Jobless Claims carry an estimate of 1720K. Later, at 14:00 UTC, EU Consumer Confidence for October is set for release, carrying an estimate of -17%.

Recent headlines, from publishers like FX Street and Forexcom, discuss the pair's short-term rebound testing immediate resistance levels before a potential resumption of the longer-term downtrend. Market media sentiment reflects a bullish opportunity reading of 71, supported by news volume at 171% of the 90-day average.

In the futures market, Commitments of Traders data as of the week to October 13 shows large speculators were net short EUR/USD. During that period, speculators added to net short EUR/USD.

As context for the US Dollar side of the pair, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 21 showed the 10-year yield at 5.13%, up 1 basis point from the prior day. The 2-year yield settled at 4.81%, adding 2 basis points.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD trades with conflicting technical signals as rising hourly momentum pushes against a bearish daily trend. Action above 1.12547 paves the way toward higher targets, while a drop under the daily pivot at 1.12279 removes immediate upside pressure.