AUD/USD Forecast Today: Neutral Stance Below Pivot Ahead of US Data

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 29, 2026, 07:07 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades in a tight intraday range ahead of critical US GDP and inflation data. Conflicting technical timeframes prompt a neutral outlook until fresh catalysts emerge.

AUD/USD Pauses Ahead of US Data Drop

During the London session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.70445, down 0.1% on the day. The pair has established a day range from a low of 0.704 up to 0.7067. This 27-pip intraday movement accounts for 60% of the 14-day average true range of 44.8 pips, indicating relatively subdued action so far. Price action currently sits between S1 at 0.70268 and the daily pivot at 0.70452.

Conflicting Timeframes Suggest Caution

The broader technical picture presents a mixed structural bias across multiple timeframes. The daily trend reads as mixed, though price remains above the 200-day EMA at 0.69857. Shorter timeframes lack alignment; the 4-hour charts show an upward trend, while the 1-hour trend is mixed. The 14-day RSI on the daily chart sits at 56.6, reinforcing the lack of clear directional momentum. Because the evidence from these timeframes conflicts, our immediate technical bias is neutral.

Key Technical Levels Framing the Action

The nearest upside barrier is the daily pivot at 0.70452, which serves as the closest resistance. To the downside, the nearest support rests at S1 at 0.70268. Looking at the wider structure using a pivot point calculator, secondary resistance sits at R1 at 0.70699 and R2 at 0.70883, with further support at S2 at 0.70021 and S3 at 0.69837.

Traders can also reference recent historical extremes. The previous day high reached 0.70636, and the previous day low was 0.70205. Stepping back, the 5-day window spans a high of 0.70636 and a low of 0.69929. The wider 20-day range covers a high of 0.70636 and a low of 0.68932. Additionally, key round levels to watch are 0.7 below and 0.705 above current price action.

Bullish and Bearish Technical Scenarios

For the bullish case, a break above R1 at 0.70699 would open the way to R2 at 0.70883. Should price move back below the daily pivot at 0.70452, that view would be invalidated.

On the bearish side, a break below S1 at 0.70268 would open the way to S2 at 0.70021. A move back above the daily pivot at 0.70452 would invalidate the bearish setup.

Heavy US Economic Slate and Positioning Context

Volatility may increase when New York joins at 12:00 UTC, leading into a dense block of scheduled releases on today's economic calendar. At 12:30 UTC, the US will release multiple high-impact data points. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index month-over-month print is expected at 0.3%, up from the previous 0.2%. The year-over-year Core PCE estimate is 3.1%, against a prior 3%. Concurrently, annualized Gross Domestic Product is estimated at 3.2% from a previous 2.2%, while the GDP Price Index is projected at 3.5%, following a prior 6.1%. Other medium-impact US data will also cross the wires at 12:30 UTC today. Personal Spending is expected to print at 0.6%, down from the previous 0.9%. The broader Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year-over-year is estimated at 3.6%, rising from the prior 3.4%. Initial Jobless Claims are forecast at 199, up from 194. According to recent news coverage, markets are weighing Australian inflation figures against expectations for Federal Reserve policy updates, as reported by FX Street and Forexcom.

Broader market context includes weekly Commitments of Traders data as of October 20, showing speculators were net short AUD/USD and added to net short AUD/USD. As background context in the bond market, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 28 showed the 2-year yield at 4.67%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.05%, up 6 basis points. Meanwhile, the opportunity reading for news sentiment currently registers at 54, which is classified as bullish.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is holding steady below the daily pivot as traders wait for a substantial influx of US macroeconomic data. With conflicting trends across key timeframes, a neutral stance is appropriate until directional catalysts emerge. The reaction to the upcoming US GDP and PCE figures will be critical in deciding whether price can clear nearby resistance or falter toward lower support.