AUD/USD Levels in Focus Ahead of Australian CPI Data

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 27, 2026, 14:33 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades between support and resistance ahead of tomorrow's Australian Consumer Price Index release. The pair faces immediate resistance at the previous day high of 0.70386 in a mixed daily trend.

AUD/USD Tests Resistance Before CPI Release

The AUD/USD pair trades at 0.70356, up 0.31% on the day, as the London and New York sessions overlap ahead of the London close at 16:00 UTC. Price sits between R1 at 0.70314 and R2 at 0.70486. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 0.70386, and the nearest support is R1 at 0.70314. The daily timeframe shows a mixed trend, though price sits above the 200-day exponential moving average at 0.69828, while both the 4-hour and 1-hour trends point up. Today's range covers 28.2 pips between a low of 0.70082 and a high of 0.70364, representing 61% of the 14-day average true range.

Australian Inflation Data on the Economic Calendar

Tomorrow at 00:30 UTC, Australia releases its Consumer Price Index. The year-over-year CPI estimate is 4.2%, compared to a previous 4%, while the Trimmed Mean CPI year-over-year previously printed at 3.6%. The month-over-month CPI carries an estimate of 0.7% against a prior 0.4%, and the month-over-month Trimmed Mean CPI is estimated at 0.3% following a previous 0.2%. RBA Governor Bullock is scheduled to speak earlier tomorrow at 00:15 UTC.

Across the last 6 releases of this event, the typical AUD/USD move one hour later was 16.55 pips, extending to a typical 17.25 pips after four hours. The largest one-hour move was 26.1 pips on 2026-04-29. After the 1 release that came in above the estimate, AUD/USD closed higher an hour later. After the 4 releases that came in below the estimate, AUD/USD closed lower an hour later. This past behaviour is not a forecast of this release.

A move of the typical 16.55-pip size from the current price reaches up to 0.70522, passing the previous day high, the 5-day high, and the 20-day high all at 0.70386, as well as R2 at 0.70486. A move of that size down reaches 0.70191, crossing R1 at 0.70314 and the daily pivot at 0.70214.

Price Scenarios and Market Context

Looking at the broader level map, a break above R2 at 0.70486 would open the way to R3 at 0.70586. A move back below the daily pivot at 0.70214 would invalidate that view. On the downside, a break below S1 at 0.70042 would open the way to S2 at 0.69942, with a move back above the daily pivot at 0.70214 invalidating the bearish path.

Positioning data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to October 20 shows large speculators added to net short AUD/USD positions. US Treasury yields at the October 26 close provide additional context, with the 2-year yield at 4.68%, down 1 basis point, and the 10-year yield at 5%.

News coverage measured by an independent provider shows an opportunity reading of neutral, with news volume at 117% of the 90-day average. Headlines from FX Street, Orbex, and Forexcom highlight AUD/USD consolidating above moving averages as market attention shifts toward upcoming central bank policy decisions and inflation figures. Later tomorrow on the economic calendar, the US Federal Reserve will announce its Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement at 18:00 UTC, followed by the FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 UTC.

Bottom Line

The Australian CPI data is released tomorrow at 00:30 UTC, with a year-over-year estimate of 4.2%. Ahead of the print, AUD/USD trades near the previous day high at 0.70386 acting as immediate resistance, and R1 at 0.70314 serving as the nearest support.